Posts Tagged ‘Swing Trading Volume’

Swing Trading Week in Review – July 16, 2010

Saturday, July 17th, 2010

Another interesting week in the market!

After pulling back off of the recent lows the market heads back down as sellers aggressively drove the market down on Friday.

DJIA - Swing Trading

Last week we saw the market pullback on LOW volume so going into this week we were looking for signs that this "retrace" was losing steam.

Monday and Tuesday's price and volume action let us know that the overall market had NOT yet ended its retrace BUT some of the individual stocks and ETF's that were on our watch list told a different story.

Since we have recently taken out the February lows in the market and we are still trading under the 50 day SMA our bias remains to the SHORT side for our "bread and butter" strategy.

In a perfect world we would be able to time our trades to match when the overall market makes its move but usually that is not the case.

Often times individual stocks (or specific sector ETF's) will lead the market by moving prior to the overall market.

In a down trending environment we often see the "weakest" stocks start to move lower even as the market is moving slightly higher.

The opposite is true for a up trending market.

"Strong" stocks will often breakout well before the overall market gives you confirmation that it is going higher.

We saw this happen at the beginning of the week as several of the stocks on our watch list triggered a SHORT entry signal.

Monday the market started to head lower but ended up closing near its high albeit on lower volume.

When the market gapped up on Tuesday some of our SHORT positions moved UP with right along with it.

The gap up in these stocks was of some concern but most stayed well below our initial STOP LOSS levels so we simply held  our positions.

Allstate (ALL) is one our trades that triggered on Monday.

ALL - Short Swing Trade

After hitting new yearly lows last week ALL put in a nice LOW volume 3 day retrace at the end of last week.

Monday you can see how ALL traded through Friday's low on increasing volume.

Our SHORT entry was triggered and we set our initial STOP LOSS level at $29.87 which is 1 ATR ( .77) away from our entry ($29.10).

ALL - Short Swing Trade

It is important to note here that by using the Average True Range (ATR) of the stock we were able to position our stop above an area where a chart pattern based stop would have been placed.

Using our Average True Range (ATR) again we would use a multiple of 2 (2 x .77= $1.54) to set our profit target at $27.57 ($29.20 – $1.54= $27.56).

However based on the chart we set our initial PROFIT TARGET at $27.78 which is just above the previous Swing Low at $26.68.

This is not quite a 2:1 risk/reward  but we put our target just above the possible support level and would cover a portion of our position at this level and let the remaining shares run.

Tuesday you can see how ALL gapped up a bit with the overall market but stays well below our ATR based stop.

ALL - Short Swing Trade

Wednesday ALL finally follows through to the down side and volume increases even as the overall market holds up.

ALL - Swing Trading

The end of the week brings more more of the same and near the close on Friday ALL hits profit target #1 as the market sells off.

ALL - Short Swing Trade

Some of the other stocks on our list that turned out to be good SHORT trades were APC, ZION, CLF, and SLX.

There were a lot of trades this week and its hard to go over them all in this BLOG.

At our "Indicators and Oscillators" webinar last night we went through each and every one of our trades.

We analyzed trades in MOS, AKAM, ALTR, XLNX, and ETF's like DXD, SRS and SKF.

We discussed how we use our indicators in conjunction with price action, volume and trend lines to make our trading decisions.

Based on the feedback we received it was a very insightful webinar for you short term traders!

Our next webinar is our popular "Swing Trading Weekly Wrap Up" where we do more of the same.

We analyze the market and sector ETF's and go over our trades in detail.

Please bring your questions and the symbols of the stocks or ETF's you want to discuss.

We look forward to seeing you there!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – July 2, 2010

Saturday, July 3rd, 2010

In last weeks Swing Trading BLOG post we said that this would be a pivotal week in the market.

Well after the dust settled this week it was VERY CLEAR that the BEARS are in charge!

After Monday's "inside day" price action and volume spoke LOUD and CLEAR on Tuesday as the market gapped down and continued to sell off until the week came to close on Friday.

DJIA

The last few weeks have been tough for Swing Traders and this week was no exception.

This week was tough for Swing Traders for a few reasons:

Starting in early June we had nine days where we basically went straight up and now we have had about ten days of trading where the market has gone straight down!

If you are "pullback" trader like we are there has not been many chances over the past month or so for you to implement your trading strategy.

If you did  not have a plan in place and were NOT prepared for Tuesday then you may have "missed the boat" when the market gapped down and sold off for the rest of the week.

This has been a "fast market" and by that we mean that there ARE chart patterns and pullbacks to trade BUT these pullbacks are shallow, maybe a day or so, and then they continue to move.

This type of price action creates "fast" trend channels and for most traders these are much more difficult to identify and trade.

Lets take a look at some of the stocks we have been following lately to show you what we mean.

Last week we walked you thorough our entry into Nemont Mining (NEM) on a LONG Swing Trade.

This is the chart from last week.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

As we told you we were able to exit some of our position at $61.67 during last Friday's afternoon rally and we were holding on to the rest with a trailing stop.

Here is how the chart looks at the end of this week.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

NEM broke out to NEW HIGHS last week so we were expecting some type of follow through to the UP side this week.

Monday NEM stalled and was followed by two days (Tuesday and Wednesday) of slightly UP price movement combined with decreasing volume.

This combination should be a BIG FLASHING YELLOW LIGHT to you just as it is for us.

Our trailing stop was hit at $60.75 on Thursday as NEM traded down through the low of the previous day.

We have marked both of our exits (Exit 1 and Exit 2) on the chart above.

Still a profitable trade but not what we expect from a stock breaking out to new highs.

At pivotal times in the market we often have a few LONG positions and a few SHORT positions and more often than not we get stopped out of the trades that end up being on the wrong side of the market.

One of our losing trades (we had a few) this week was in Sandisk (SNDK).

Here is the chart of SNDK to give you the context…strong stock making higher highs and higher lows.

SNDK - Long Swing Trade

During this weeks trading action MONDAY was the make it or break it day in our opinion.

We have been following the recent strength in SNDK so after last weeks pullback we were ready to get LONG again on the first sign of strength.

Monday we got what we were looking for as SNDK traded through Fridays high just as the market also attempted to trade higher.

Our entry was triggered at $47 and our initial stop was set at $44.92 for a $2.08/share risk.

When the market did not follow through on Monday SNDK reversed midday and ended right at the low of the day.

One of the hardest situations that Swing Traders face is what to do when you have a BIG opening gap (up or down) in the market.

Tuesday morning that is exactly what the market did as it opened up the day down significantly from Mondays close.

Like most stocks SNDK was no exception and gapped down with market and opened at $44.76 which was BELOW our initial stop.

Our exit strategy when this happens is dependent on the context of the overall picture that the market, sector and individual stock is painting.

in this specific example the strategy calls for an exit on the open for a number of reasons.

Our actual exit price was $44.74 so we actually lost  $2.26/shareMORE than initially planned.

Here is a zoomed in version so you can see the details a bit better.

SNDK - Long Swing Trade

This losing trade in SNDK shows you why having a position sizing and money management strategy in place is so important.

Due to the frequent overnight gaps we face as swing traders we recommend that you have a "buffer" built in to your position sizing strategy to allow for a "worst case" scenario.

When strong stocks like ALK, NTAP, SNDK and MELI start to break down at pivotal times that usually means our SHORT positions (weak stocks or ETF's) are continuing to sell off.

The "weak" Retail (RTH) ETF continued its sell off this week but you almost had to be in this position coming into the week.

The other noticeably weak sector, the Homebuilders (XHB), offered you yet another opportunity to get SHORT as it broke to NEW LOWS on Tuesday's "gap and go".

Other SHORT trades that worked out nicely were LPNT, ERTS, X, and MGM.

I mentioned above about this being a "fast" market and here are a few example of stocks with "fast channels" to demonstrate my point.

PCAR - Fast Trend Channel SNPS - Fast Trend Channel LRCX - Fast Price Channel

In all of the charts above you can see that after pulling back from their recent highs all of them attempt to move higher on Monday.

They all fail to move higher the next day essentially creating a one day UP move before continuing to sell off.

If they all would have moved higher for another day or so the chart pattern would have painted a more clear picture for those traders not yet skilled at identifying this type of "fast" trend change.

Probably the best example of just how 'fast" this market has been is to look at the overall market ETF's for the DJIA (DIA) and the S&P 500 (SPY).

DIA - Swing Tading ETF SPY - Swing Trading ETF

You can see how the market sold off everyday last week as it put in its first pullback after the 9 day up move.

Monday you can see how price "stalls" and creates an inside bar.

Tuesday the market "gaps down" and sells off for the rest of the week not giving swing traders much of a pullback to SHORT.

In order to capitalize on this type of "fast" price action you need to learn how trends transition and use price action and volume as your leading indicators.

These are the exact strategies we teach in our PVT Trading Tactics class so if you would like to learn more you can check it out HERE.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

 

 

 

Swing Trading Week in Review – June 18, 2010

Friday, June 18th, 2010

As the market continued its recent up move our "short term" LONG swing trades turned out nicely.

After bouncing off of the February lows the market has moved up for the last 9 days straight.

DJIA  Daily Chart

As you know from our last few BLOG posts we entered into some LONG swing trades (in strong stocks) as the market confirmed its "bounce" off of the February lows.

Strong stocks like ALK, AKAM and NTAP (chart below) hit their profit targets this week.

NTAP - Swing Trade

One of the strong stocks the we did not take a trade in but also turned out nicely was MELI.

MELI - Swing Trade

MELI made a nice run to new yearly highs as the market made its "bounce".

In tonight's webinar we discussed how we determined which stocks and ETF's to trade during this last move in the market.

One of the biggest "clues" we look for is when a stock or ETF shows strength or weakness in relation to what the overall market is doing.

Look at the stocks we listed above.

All of the stocks above were showing signs of strength as the market was trading down to the February lows.

As the market confirmed its "double bottom" price pattern these strong stocks and ETF's were putting in a higher low prior to taking off to new highs.

The strongest stocks were also trading above their 50 period SMA, a basic filter we use to determine strength or weakness, while the market was trading well below it.

In contrast the weaker ETF's (and individual stocks) were the ones that made new lows or lower lows as the market "double bottomed".

Take a look at the chart of the DOW (above) and compare it to the RTH and XHB (below).

RTH - Swing Trade

XHB - ETF Swing Trade

You can see how both sectors made new lows as the market put in the "double bottom" on June 8th.

We steered clear of these sectors during the recent up move and will continue to do so until they show signs of becoming at least as strong (and preferably stronger) than the overall market.

By locating the "clues" that these stocks and ETF's were giving us we were able to make some profitable LONG trades in a then down trending environment.

If you have any questions about the trades we entered into this week please post them below…we would love to hear from you!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

 

 

 

 

Swing Trading Week in Review – June 11, 2010

Friday, June 11th, 2010

Well after a mild continuation sell off that started last week the markets finally put in a decent move to the upside to finish positive for the week.

Monday we watched the market continue lower but we noticed the this move was not accompanied by strong volume.

We were focused on the 9835.09 level in the Dow as a possible level of support.

9835.09 is the low of the reversal day that happened on February 5th and was essentially the starting point for the 1400 point that followed.

The chart below is the WEEKLY chart of the DJIA to show you the level we were looking at.

Dow Jones Weekly Swing Chart

And here is the daily chart of the DJIA which shows you an additional "touch" of this area back on the 25th of May.

DJIA Daily Swing Trading Chart

Watching the price and volume action around this level would give us a "clue" to what the market may do next.

Tuesday the market did head lower to break through the 9835.09 level once again but by the end of the trading session you could almost feel the tide turning.

We were able to cover most of our SHORT positions (DOW, KLAC, UPS) into this down move on Tuesday as price reached our initial profit targets.

We tightened up our stops and were stopped out of the remainder of our positions on Wednesday morning as the market rallied to new highs around 11am.

Tuesday and Wednesday's price action told us that a "bounce" or "retrace" had begun (at least for the short term) so it looked like the 9835.09 would once again hold as support.

Anticipating the possibility of a "bounce" we also had several stocks on our watch list that were showing signs of relative strength during the recent down move.

Our strategy was to buy a few of these strong stocks if price firmed up around the 9835.09 level and began to show signs of moving up.

As the morning progressed Wednesday we did enter into a few new LONG swing trades.

One of the "strong" stocks we have been watching is NTAP.

After a nice run up to NEW HIGHS you can see how NTAP put in a pretty text book retrace from the HIGH of last Thursday to the LOW of Tuesday's trading.

NTAP - Long Swing Trade Example

This pullback from NEW HIGHS was happening as the market was headed lower from a LOWER HIGH into a possible support area…a good sign of strength.

Tuesday's price action in NTAP gave us the "heads up" for it's next possible leg up.

Wednesday, when the market gapped up, we payed close attention to NTAP and once we saw the relative strength in the overall market and NTAP we were able to enter into a LONG position at just over $38.

The market rolled over hard into the close Wednesday and NTAP actually closed well below our entry price after being UP almost $1 in this position.

This is more often than not a sign that our trade will not work out but instead of jumping the gun we just followed of rules like every other trade we put on.

Our STOP for this trade was set at 1 ATR or $1.70 in this case.

The late day reversal on Wednesday brought NTAP within .09 of stopping us out of this trade as the market closed.

From a HIGH of nearly $39 NTAP traded all the way down to a LOW of $37.39 by the close.

Since $39 minus $1.70 is $37.30 (our trailing ATR stop level) that shows you just how close we were to being stopped out.

Thursday the market gapped up a bit a NTAP had an "inside day" on LOWER VOLUME.

No sign for panic but not a great sign for us as the market moved higher.

NTAP - Swing Trading Example

Friday we got the follow through in NTAP that we were looking for…a nice move UP on INCREASED VOLUME.

As NTAP closed today at just under $40 we trailed our stop up accordingly and, absent any HUGE gap down, have locked in at least a small profit on this trade.

Follow your trading plan and don't try to outguess the market!

Until next week…GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

 

 

 

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