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Posts Tagged ‘SHORT SWING TRADING’

Swing Trading Week in Review – October 15, 2010

Sunday, October 17th, 2010

The rally continues! (well kinda)

The major indices finished UP yet again this week.

Although we closed the week on a positive note the move itself was less than spectacular.

It was more like a sideways Monday, nice day of trading Tuesday then a GAP UP and trade sideways to close the week.

Now don't get me wrong…We aren't complaining!

The very BULLISH price action we are seeing is a nice change of pace from the last few months of the "stop, chop, and reverse" type trading that we were seeing.

As a matter of fact this week we saw a lot of the strong stocks on our list continue to move strongly to the upside.

AAPL and AMZN are continue to defy gravity as both stocks ripped to NEW HIGHS this week.

CF and AGU also continued to rally after last Fridays breakout.

RIG and DO had a nice week as well as the Oil Services and Energy sectors remain strong.

There are also a lot of strong stocks on our list that used this week to digest some of their recent gains.

AVP, CCJ, MMR, JWN, DE, STJ and DOW are a few names that are on this list.

This is a good sign and should give us very nice trade setups in the days to come.

The sector action was mixed again this week.

The Financials (XLF IYF) still cannot find any legs and actually sold off pretty hard to close the week.

Retail (RTH) is still trading sideways but Real Estate (IYR) finally got a little lift this week.

One sector that did finally make its move this week was the Technology sector.

After last weeks consolidation XLK finally made its move higher closing the week a new multi month highs.

As expected the Tech heavy Nasdaq got a lift this week as well.

The QQQQ gets our vote for "Index of the Week" based on its great chart.

As the bull marches on we expect to see some follow through in the days to come.

Be patient and wait for your trades to set up.

The market is in a VERY BULLISH phase right now but that does not mean that decent pullback is out of the question.

Be prepared for anything and trade your plan accordingly.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

P.S. – Our last strategy class of the year will be our PVT Trading Tactics class on October 30th. If you are interested in learning more about trading with trend lines, volume, and price action then don't forget to sign up now!

Tags: ETF Swing Trading, Financial ETF, RTH, SHORT SWING TRADING, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, Swing Trading Strategies
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, ETF Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Charts | No Comments »

Swing Trading Week in Review – September 17, 2010

Friday, September 17th, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading Boot Camp

The UPWARD drift continues!

In last week's BLOG POST we mentioned the lack of volume we are seeing and the need for volume to increase to move this market decisively higher.

Well the market did move up this week but as the first line of this post states it was more of a drift than a significant move.

The move this week puts us right back up to the June 21st price levels that we saw just prior to the sell off that took us to NEW LOW'S for the year.

The best chart that illustrates the larger sideways trading channel we are in has to be the chart of the S&P 500 Index.

Here is the chart for the SPY to show how this weeks trading action brings us right to very top of this channel.

The Nasdaq has actually been a bit stronger.

This most recent UP move brings to QQQQ'S above that all important level set on June 21st but after a 12 day up move it seems way overbought in the short term.

As far as sectors go it is pretty much the same story as last week.

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) remain strong with several stocks in this sector pushing higher this week.

DBA actually pushed to a NEW HIGH for the year this week while MOO trades a bit below its yearly high.

In last week's post we mentioned a few stocks to watch in this sector coming into this week.

One of the few trades we made this week was in John Deere & Company (DE) which is one of the biggest holdings in MOO.

After showing so much recent relative strength DE put in a nice tight sideways consolidation pattern last week.

As the market GAPPED UP on Monday DE was up right along with it.

Our original entry target was just above the high set in early August which was $69.47.

When the market rolled over mid morning DE stayed strong as we entered into a position at $69.55.

Our initial STOP LOSS level is set at $67.10 which is just below the recent consolidation area.

This puts our initial risk at $2.45/share.

Our PROFIT TARGET is set at $74.45 which is twice our initial risk per share ($2.45 x 2= $4.90 + $69.55).

After 3 more days of consolidation DE made a HIGH VOLUME UP MOVE today and finally pushed our position nicely to the UPSIDE.

The trade is still open so we will manage our position accordingly and let you know how it turns out.

As far as the other sector's in the market go we cautioned you last week about the LOW VOLUME moves in XLE and RTH.

XLE actually put in a retrace this week despite the strength in the overall market.

RTH on the other hand GAPPED UP nicely with the market on Monday and then followed WITH VOLUME on Tuesday.

A nice move UP since breaking the DOWN TREND channel line.

With the extreme upward angle of this last move and possible overhead resistance in the $94-$96 area RTH is short term overbought just like the overall market.

Take caution going into next week but continue to watch this sector moving forward once the market has pulled back a bit.

The Real Estate ETF (IYR) is holding up nicely but consolidated this entire week.

Breakout or pullback?

Keep this one on your radar as well in the coming days.

The notable laggard (so far) is still the Semiconductor sector ETF (SMH).

The week's upward drift still leaves this weak ETF trading below its 50 day SMA while almost every other sector is trading back above theirs.

CREE, CRUS, SNDK (although it stopped us out last week) and a few other names in this sector still have very weak charts.

This could all change in the near future especially if the overall market continues to strengthen.

The big picture tells us that the overall action in the market remains sideways.

The recent strength does look favorable for a continued UP move in the market after we digest some of these recent gains.

BUT…

We have seen this a few times before on both the LONG and SHORT side of the market.

Don't get to comfortable with this market just yet by only staying focused on one way trades.

Be prepared for anything (have LONG and SHORT ideas) that way whatever the market decides to do from here you can take the appropriate action.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: 50 Day SMA, DE, DIA, ETF Swing Trading, IYR, Retail ETF, RTH, SHORT SWING TRADING, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, Swing Trading Strategies, XLE
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Charts, Technical Analysis | 1 Comment »

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 20, 2010

Sunday, August 22nd, 2010

After the retrace back to the 50 Day SMA last week we saw the DJIA put in a bit of "bounce" to start out this week of trading.

After a nice GAP UP on Tuesday we saw the market stall on Wednesday as it failed to trade above Tuesday's HIGH.

Sellers jumped back into the market on Thursday and pushed the market lower to close the week in negative territory.

In last week's BLOG POST we posted about how we saw the market "transition" last Tuesday and Wednesday.

The type of price action transition we noticed had us looking for some SHORT Swing Trading setups coming into the start of this week.

As the market "bounced" to start the week we patiently waited for the WEAK stocks and ETF's to trigger a SHORT entry.

After posting about the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" chart pattenr in the Financial ETF (XLF) we followed up last week with a nice trade in the Inverse Financial ETF (FAZ).

This week FAZ setup yet another LONG trade entry as the weak Financial sector headed lower again.

Another sector ETF that gave us a clue to look for SHORT trades was the Energy ETF (XLE).

After putting in a nice up move on Tuesday we watching as XLE reversed it's upward move and head straight down on Wednesday on INCREASED VOLUME.

This created a confirmed "lower high" a put our new down channel in place.

This move in the ETF had us looking through the charts of individual stocks in this sector for possible SHORT trade setups Wednesday afternoon.

APC, SLB and CVX all had nice chart patterns with clearly defined risk levels in place.

This is a good example of how to use sector ETF's to look for Swing Trading opportunities in stocks that a closely related or correlated to that sector.

The Oil Services ETF (OIH) had a nearly identical chart pattern.

DO, BHI and NBR we good candidates in this sector.

On the flip side of the coin we saw the GOLD and GOLD MINERS ETF's have a nice week to the UP side as their recent relative strength continues.

Stocks to watch in this sector going forward are AU, EGO, AEM, NEM, ABX, GG, and GG.

Also keep an eye on the Retail ETF (RTH) in the days to come.

We have noticed some strong BUYING in the some of the retail names this week.

This could be a sign of things to come but as always we need confirmation to declare the down trend has come to an end.

As we go into next week there are a few things that we have noticed that have us wondering whether or not this most recent down move has any legs.

We still have a TON of stocks that are holding up (showing relative strength) despite the selling we have witnessed the last two days of this week.

AKAM, MELI, INFA, MO, SNPS, and VRSN to name a few.

Although the DJIA and S&P have technically put in a "lower high" AND "lower low" the Nasdaq has only put in a "lower high" and has yet to confirm a "lower low".

No one knows for sure what we will do come Monday morning so as always be prepared for anything so that you can take the appropriate action when the market tells you it's true intentions.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

P.S

Would like to learn more about how we locate our short term trades in stocks and ETF's?

If so feel free join us Friday, August 27th for our "Finding Swing Trading Opportunities in Today's Market" webinar.

You can register for this absolutely FREE Swing Trading webinar HERE.

Tags: APC, DIA, ETF Swing Trading, Financial ETF, Retail ETF, SHORT SWING TRADING, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Volume, XLE, XLF
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Charts | No Comments »

Swing Trading Week in Review – July 16, 2010

Saturday, July 17th, 2010

Another interesting week in the market!

After pulling back off of the recent lows the market heads back down as sellers aggressively drove the market down on Friday.

Last week we saw the market pullback on LOW volume so going into this week we were looking for signs that this "retrace" was losing steam.

Monday and Tuesday's price and volume action let us know that the overall market had NOT yet ended its retrace BUT some of the individual stocks and ETF's that were on our watch list told a different story.

Since we have recently taken out the February lows in the market and we are still trading under the 50 day SMA our bias remains to the SHORT side for our "bread and butter" strategy.

In a perfect world we would be able to time our trades to match when the overall market makes its move but usually that is not the case.

Often times individual stocks (or specific sector ETF's) will lead the market by moving prior to the overall market.

In a down trending environment we often see the "weakest" stocks start to move lower even as the market is moving slightly higher.

The opposite is true for a up trending market.

"Strong" stocks will often breakout well before the overall market gives you confirmation that it is going higher.

We saw this happen at the beginning of the week as several of the stocks on our watch list triggered a SHORT entry signal.

Monday the market started to head lower but ended up closing near its high albeit on lower volume.

When the market gapped up on Tuesday some of our SHORT positions moved UP with right along with it.

The gap up in these stocks was of some concern but most stayed well below our initial STOP LOSS levels so we simply held our positions.

Allstate (ALL) is one our trades that triggered on Monday.

After hitting new yearly lows last week ALL put in a nice LOW volume 3 day retrace at the end of last week.

Monday you can see how ALL traded through Friday's low on increasing volume.

Our SHORT entry was triggered and we set our initial STOP LOSS level at $29.87 which is 1 ATR ( .77) away from our entry ($29.10).

It is important to note here that by using the Average True Range (ATR) of the stock we were able to position our stop above an area where a chart pattern based stop would have been placed.

Using our Average True Range (ATR) again we would use a multiple of 2 (2 x .77= $1.54) to set our profit target at $27.57 ($29.20 – $1.54= $27.56).

However based on the chart we set our initial PROFIT TARGET at $27.78 which is just above the previous Swing Low at $26.68.

This is not quite a 2:1 risk/reward but we put our target just above the possible support level and would cover a portion of our position at this level and let the remaining shares run.

Tuesday you can see how ALL gapped up a bit with the overall market but stays well below our ATR based stop.

Wednesday ALL finally follows through to the down side and volume increases even as the overall market holds up.

The end of the week brings more more of the same and near the close on Friday ALL hits profit target #1 as the market sells off.

Some of the other stocks on our list that turned out to be good SHORT trades were APC, ZION, CLF, and SLX.

There were a lot of trades this week and its hard to go over them all in this BLOG.

At our "Indicators and Oscillators" webinar last night we went through each and every one of our trades.

We analyzed trades in MOS, AKAM, ALTR, XLNX, and ETF's like DXD, SRS and SKF.

We discussed how we use our indicators in conjunction with price action, volume and trend lines to make our trading decisions.

Based on the feedback we received it was a very insightful webinar for you short term traders!

Our next webinar is our popular "Swing Trading Weekly Wrap Up" where we do more of the same.

We analyze the market and sector ETF's and go over our trades in detail.

Please bring your questions and the symbols of the stocks or ETF's you want to discuss.

We look forward to seeing you there!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: ETF Swing Trading, SHORT SWING TRADING, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, Swing Trading Strategies, Swing Trading Volume
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, ETF Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Technical Analysis | No Comments »