Archive for the ‘Swing Trading Technical Analysis’ Category

Swing Trading BLOG – Week in Review – May 20, 2011

Sunday, May 22nd, 2011

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

$DIA - Swing Trading ETF

After putting a LOWER HIGH last week traders watched as the market followed with a LOWER LOW this week.

Tuesdays trading actually brought the overall market down to a new low for the month of May.

The SELL OFF pushed the market back closer to its 50 day SMA and right on top of the previous break out level we saw a month ago.

This SHORT TERM correction in the market actually gives us a nice DESCENDING TRIANGLE (see chart above) to trade it we choose to do so.

A follow up on the Sector ETF's is in order so here it goes.

As we mentioned in last weeks BLOG POST the Energy and Oil ETF's had a very "steep" trend line in place.

These "steep" angles are hard to maintain and often times you will need to adjust your lines after price breaks out of these fast lines.

$XLE- Swing Trading ETF

The Steel sector ETF ($SLX) is a good example of a slight TREND LINE adjustment.

In the chart below you can see how after hitting the bottom of the longer term DOWN CHANNEL $SLX "bounced" out of the SHORT TERM channel.

$SLX - Swing Trading ETF

This "bounce" actually took price out of the SHORT TERM channel BUT it was still under its previous Swing High.

Fridays trading action confirmed the next move lower so we were now able to slightly "adjust" our trend line (in blue) to gives us context for our new channel.

One sector that has put in a nice orderly DOWN TREND is the Financial sector ETF ($IYF).

No adjustment to this trend line…

$IYF - Swing Trading ETF

As we move into next week we must admit that the warning signs are flashing for us.

The selling we saw on Friday is concerning to say the least but that being said the market is still holding (so far) above its 50 day SMA.

We are still trading both sides of the market and will continue to do so until the market decides where to go from here.

Be prepared for anything and have a plan in place and until next week…Good Trading to YOU!!!

Swing Trading Technical Analysis – $MOS – Part 2

Wednesday, May 18th, 2011

Swing Trading Technical Analysis – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

In this BLOG post we will continue our Technical Analysis view on $MOS.

If your missed part one you can view it HERE.

$MOS - Swing Trading Technical Analysis

We when last looked at $MOS it had just created another LOWER HIGH and was "stalling" near an area of potential support ($73).

The thick BLUE horizontal line in the chart above marks this support area.

We also posted that in order for the DOWN TREND to continue we would need to see PRICE move LOWER and VOLUME move HIGHER.

We have zoomed in a bit on the chart and annotated our comments as well.

$MOS - Technical Analysis

Two days after we posted our analysis $MOS did push LOWER ON HIGHER VOLUME confirming that the DOWN TREND was still intact.

We marked this as #1 on the chart.

$MOS quickly lost steam and two days later put in a HIGH VOLUME day but closed very near the low fo the day.

The SELLERS were still there!

$MOS continued to trade "sideways"  (#2.) until May 11th when PRICE again moved LOWER and VOLUME INCREASED (#3.)

This created another leg down in the already established DOWN CHANNEL (orange).

After another day of trading a bit lower $MOS again traded "sideways"  (#4.) until today when we watched $MOS trade above yesterdays high on increased volume.

Now even though $MOS has technically started a retrace it is still in an obvious DOWN TREND.

Notice above how $MOS is still trading inside it SHORTER TERM TREND CHANNEL (thick ORANGE LINES) as well as its LONGER TERM DOWN CHANNEL (thick BLACK LINES).

How and where you could have entered and exited a trade in $MOS depends of course on your time frame and style of trading.

As we move forward from here we apply the same logic and let price action and volume tells where $MOS is headed.

A BREAKOUT of the SHORT TERM TREND CHANNEL would NOT excite us to much at this point since there are now a bunch of resistance levels to contend with.

The LONGER TERM chart of $MOS tells us that $65 has acted a a pretty major area of support in the past.

That being said another move LOWER on HIGHER VOLUME is something we are definitely on the look out for.

If this Swing Trading Technical Analysis walk through was helpful to you please leave a comment below.

Swing Trading BLOG – Week in Review – May 6, 2011

Saturday, May 7th, 2011

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

The overall market SOLD OFF this week as sellers stepped and drove stocks lower.

The SELL OFF came in INCREASED VOLUME after the market pushed higher last week on less than stellar volume.

The SELL OFF has traders looking to INVERSE ETF's for possible trade setups in the very near future.

The Energy and Oil ETF's took a hit and and going to be sectors to watch moving into next week.

Agriculture ETF's continue to show weakness and the Steel sector could be headed towards a NEW LOW.

You can see a Technical Analysis walk through on one of the weak Agriculture stocks ($MOS) by clicking HERE.

The Retail and Semiconductor ETF's and holding up very well during this recent PULL BACK in the market.

Despite the recent selling pressure just remember that the market is still trading above its 50 day SMA.

The are more Swing Trading opportunities on BOTH sides of the market now so that tells us that we are at a pivotal point.

There are still plenty of strong stocks to watch ($R, $INFA, $K, $WLK, $ERTS, $M) so make sure to have a plan for next week.

If we trade higher on good volume next week the market could continue its move up.

If we trade higher and volume doesn't follow through then we could be in for another leg down in the near term.

Until next week…Good trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Technical Analysis – $MOS

Sunday, May 1st, 2011

Swing Trading Technical Analysis

Will the DOWN TREND in $MOS continue or is a BREAK OUT in the near future?

$MOS - Swing Trading Technical Analysis

Let us walk you through our Technical Analysis for this potential swing trade.

The overall trend is obviously DOWN in $MOS.

The THICK BLACK lines indicate the dominant trend channel.

The horizontal BLUE line is a area of potential support since BUYERS have stepped in each time $MOS has traded down to this level.

The ORANGE lines indicate the short term trend channel that $MOS is currently trading in.

The other stocks in this sector are on the move so we are waiting to see what $MOS does in the days to come.

The push lower on INCREASED VOLUME we saw on Thursday was followed by an "inside day" on lower volume.

We consider this a "stall" and will wait to see how $MOS trades out of this chart pattern.

For the DOWN TREND to continue we would need to see PRICE move lower and VOLUME move higher.

Price would have to break through the previous support area and VOLUME (heavy selling) should accompany that to make it happen.

What would an UP move need to look like for us to take a trade?

A BREAK OUT of the ORANGE CHANNEL on INCREASED VOLUME would be a nice trade set up for us.

This would be an STS trade since there is still some overhead resistance to deal with.

Lets see how $MOS does over the next few days and come back to walk through it together.

** Part 2 is posted HERE**

We hope you find this Swing Trading Technical Analysis walk through helpful!

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