Posts Tagged ‘IYR’

Swing Trading Week in Review – February 11, 2011

Sunday, February 13th, 2011

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

DIA - Swing Trading

In last weeks BLOG post we told you that we were back in "LONG ONLY" mode and this week the market did NOT let us down.

The overall market and most of the sector ETF's rallied to NEW YEARLY HIGHS this week.

A bunch of stocks on our Watch List made nice moves this week.

The Semiconductors ($SMH) remained strong but most of the other sectors moved up nicely as well.

The Financials ($XLF) and the Real Estate ($IYR) ETF's broke out this week.

IYR - Swing Trading ETF

$TTWO and $ERTS are still holding up and $WFMI (mentioned last week) had a nice break away gap to the UP side on Thursday.

WFMI - Swing Trading

We could go on and on about the stocks that rallied last week but that would be of little use to you moving forward.

Instead we will let you know that some of the Energy stocks we mentioned last week are still poised to break out.

As the market continues to rally look for the stocks that are setting up nicely as we move into next week.

The "LONG ONLY" mode continues and we hope that you are taking advantage of this tremendous rally in the market!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – September 24, 2010

Sunday, September 26th, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

Well we FINALLY got the directional move in the market that everyone has been waiting waiting for.

The BREAKOUT we saw on Monday was quickly followed by a 3 day shallow pullback which had some traders thinking the market was up to it's same old tricks.

SPY

With the way some of the individual sector's were acting we were actually thinking the same thing.

After holding up nicely for so long the Real Estate sector ETF (IYR) broke out with the overall market on Monday.

For the 3 days following the BREAKOUT sellers aggressively came in and drove this ETF well below the level of last week's consolidation.

Here is the chart…

IYR

You can see how this BREAKOUT failed and stopped us out (and a lot of other traders I would assume) as it retraces all the way back to it's 50 period SMA.

A swallow pullback in lines with the overall market was expected from such a strong ETF so this type of price action was not only frustrating but concerning as well.

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) had similar price action after giving us a LONG signal on Monday.

XLE

The retrace that followed created an "equal bottom" and came very close to our initial STOP LOSS level.

Friday XLE continued it's move up as the overall market BROKE OUT again.

The Retail sector ETF (RTH) continues to be the rock star!

RTH

Even after being short term OVERBOUGHT we saw RTH break to the UPSIDE Monday.

RTH then created a nice swallow, almost sideways consolidation during the 3 days that the overall market pulled back.

Friday the strength in this sector continued as RTH gapped up and traded through the $94-$96 level we mentioned last week.

One sector in transition this week were the Semiconductor's.

SMH

The SMH has been a real laggard but this week we saw buyers step in a finally bring this ETF back above it's 50 day SMA.

Although CREE and SNDK did result in new SHORT trades for us early in the week overall this sector seems to have found some new strength.

KLAC and NVDA stand out so we will watch some of the other stocks in this sector as we move into trading next week.

Friday was one of those days that there were so many trades that were triggering that it was hard to keep up!

We saw a ton of stocks BREAKING OUT and some stocks that just continue to RIP to the upside without even taking a breather.

Amazon (AMZN) opened this month at $126 and has gone straight up since then!

No retrace, no pullback just a parabolic RIP up to (so far) $160!!!

AMZN

Apple (AAPL) has basically done the same thing by going from the $240's straight up to close above $292 on Friday!

AAPL

Some of the BREAKOUT stocks our list included AGU, MMR, CCJ, INFA, HAL, SMG, WYN, NTAP, QCOM, CMI, EQIX and our recent money machine SOHU.

Not our entire list but a good list of stocks to watch as we move forward the next few weeks.

There were also a TON (way too many to list here) of non-breakout LONG trade setups last week.

This is a good sign of overall strength in the market and much better than just one or two sectors leading the way.

All in all the market is looking stronger and stronger but as always FOLLOW THROUGH will be the key.

Although there are a few stocks on our list that look weak it is hard to make a case for getting SHORT in light of the recent strength the market has shown us.

That being said we will continue to do what we do each day and prepare accordingly for each and every outcome that the market can present us.

Doing so allows us to react accordingly (and hopefully profitably) when the market decides what to do next.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – September 17, 2010

Friday, September 17th, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading Boot Camp

The UPWARD drift continues!

In last week's BLOG POST we mentioned the lack of volume we are seeing and the need for volume to increase to move this market decisively higher.

Well the market did move up this week but as the first line of this post states it was more of a drift than a significant move.

The move this week puts us right back up to the June 21st price levels that we saw just prior to the sell off that took us to NEW LOW'S for the year.

DIA - DJIA ETF

The best chart that illustrates the larger sideways trading channel we are in has to be the chart of the S&P 500 Index.

Here is the chart for the SPY to show how this weeks trading action brings us right to very top of this channel.

SPY - SP500 ETF

The Nasdaq has actually been a bit stronger.

This most recent UP move brings to QQQQ'S above that all important level set on June 21st but after a 12 day up move it seems way overbought in the short term.

QQQQ

As far as sectors go it is pretty much the same story as last week.

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) remain strong with several stocks in this sector pushing higher this week.

DBA actually pushed to a NEW HIGH for the year this week while MOO trades a bit below its yearly high.

DBA - Agriculture ETF

In last week's post we mentioned a few stocks to watch in this sector coming into this week.

One of the few trades we made this week was in John Deere & Company (DE) which is one of the biggest holdings in MOO.

DE

After showing so much recent relative strength DE put in a nice tight sideways consolidation pattern last week.

As the market GAPPED UP on Monday DE was up right along with it.

Our original entry target was just above the high set in early August which was $69.47.

When the market rolled over mid morning DE stayed strong as we entered into a position at $69.55.

Our initial STOP LOSS level is set at $67.10 which is just below the recent consolidation area.

This puts our initial risk at $2.45/share.

Our PROFIT TARGET is set at $74.45 which is twice our initial risk per share ($2.45 x 2= $4.90 + $69.55).

After 3 more days of consolidation DE made a HIGH VOLUME UP MOVE today and finally pushed our position nicely to the UPSIDE.

The trade is still open so we will manage our position accordingly and let you know how it turns out.

As far as the other sector's in the market go we cautioned you last week about the LOW VOLUME moves in XLE and RTH.

XLE actually put in a retrace this week despite the strength in the overall market.

XLE - Energy ETF

RTH on the other hand GAPPED UP nicely with the market on Monday and then followed WITH VOLUME on Tuesday.

A nice move UP since breaking the DOWN TREND channel line.

RTH

With the extreme upward angle of this last move and possible overhead resistance in the $94-$96 area RTH is short term overbought just like the overall market.

 

Take caution going into next week but continue to watch this sector moving forward once the market has pulled back a bit.

The Real Estate ETF (IYR) is holding up nicely but consolidated this entire week.

Breakout or pullback?

Keep this one on your radar as well in the coming days.

IYR

The notable laggard (so far) is still the Semiconductor sector ETF (SMH).

The week's upward drift still leaves this weak ETF trading below its 50 day SMA while almost every other sector is trading back above theirs.

SMH

CREE, CRUS, SNDK (although it stopped us out last week) and a few other names in this sector still have very weak charts.

This could all change in the near future especially if the overall market continues to strengthen.

The big picture tells us that the overall action in the market remains sideways.

The recent strength does look favorable for a continued UP move in the market after we digest some of these recent gains.

BUT…

We have seen this a few times before on both the LONG and SHORT side of the market.

Don't get to comfortable with this market just yet by only staying focused on one way trades.

Be prepared for anything (have LONG and SHORT ideas) that way whatever the market decides to do from here you can take the appropriate action.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

 

 

Swing Trading Week in Review – April 9, 2010

Saturday, April 10th, 2010

After briefly touching 11,000, the DOW ended the week at 10,997…the highest close since September of 2008!

As the market continues to rally there have obviously been some great swing trading opportunities for you to capitalize on.

A few weeks ago in our Swing Blog and also in our Swing Trading Newsletter we noticed the increasing relative strength in the GAMING SECTOR.

This week stocks in this sector WERE ON FIRE!

Take a look at the charts for MGM, WYNN and BYD

MGM WYNN BYD

Sticking with our swing trading strategy of locating STRONG STOCKS in STRONG SECTORS these charts are great examples of identifying LOW RISK/HIGH REWARD swing trade setups.

Another sector that continues to rally is the RETAIL sector.

Here is the chart for RTH (retail ETF)…

RTH Swing Trading ETF

We have been trading stocks in this sector for weeks and notified our blog and newsletter readers that last weeks "pullback" could lead to great potential LONG setups in this sector.

Several retailers made nice moves this week including M, BBY, ANF, RL and HOG.

Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (IYR) are still strong with GOLD (GDX), SILVER (SLV) and ENERGY (XLE) showing signs of wanting to play "catch up".

So will the DOW finally break through 11,000 with conviction next week?

Only time will tell so as always…be prepared for ANYTHING!

Until next week…good trading to YOU!

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