Posts Tagged ‘ETF Swing Trading’

Swing Trading Week in Review – May 21, 2010

Friday, May 21st, 2010

The SELL OFF continues!

Another volatile week in the markets this week as the sellers came out in droves driving the Dow back down near the lows we saw on May 6.

DJIA - Swing Trading Strategies

In last weeks Swing Trading Blog post we notified you of the numerous SHORT Swing Trade setups we had on our "Watch List" for Thursday (May 13th) morning.

Our strategy was to locate weak sectors and individual stocks within those sectors that were giving us LOW RISK setups.

We also advised that when the market followed through to the downside we entered into several new positions.

In our Swing Trading Newsletter we highlighted the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and several of the stocks (KLAC. LLTC, MXIM) within that sector that had nice SHORT trade chart patterns.

Some of the other stocks on our list included AXP, FDX, MET, ALL, and SOHU.

We also got LONG trades off in the Inverse Energy ETF (ERY) and the Financial Inverse ETF (FAZ).

ERY - Inverse Energy ETF Swing Trading

FAZ - Inverse Financial ETF Swing Trading

Well needless to say these trades played out nicely this week as the market made its way lower.

We were able to scale out of our trades on the way up and when the market gapped down again on Friday we tighted our trailing stops and were taken out of most of our remaining shares.

The sellers were relentless this week taking down almost every sector along with it.

The Steel (SLX), Solar(TAN), Oil (OIH), Energy (XLE) and Agribusiness (DBA) ETF's all made new yearly LOWS this week.

Some of the previously strong sectors also came down with the market during this weeks sell off.

Retail (RTH), Real Estate (IYR) and the Homebuilders (XHB) finally broke under their 50 day SMA's and headed lower.

The Gold (GLD and GDX) and Silver (SLV) ETF's came off of their recent highs to put in a lengthy and somewhat concerning pullback.

Fridays "bounce back" tells us that a retrace could be in order going into next week.

We are currently watching some stocks that have shown signs of relative strength during the down move this week but until the obvious negative sentiment changes we will continue to look for additional SHORT trading opportunities.

If you would like to learn more about our Swing Trading Strategies and Techniques please feel free to join us at any one of our upcoming courses or webinars.

Until next week…GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

 

 

 

 

 

Swing Trading Week in Review – May 7, 2010

Friday, May 7th, 2010

Can you say Volatility?

Wow!

What a roller coaster ride we had in the market this week!

After the dust settled we ended the week with the NASDAQ down 8%, the S&P down 6% and the DOW down 5.7%.

This highlight of the week was of course the historic intraday sell off in the markets on Thursday.

The DOW fell almost 1,000 points (due to a trading error?) in the early afternoon but staged a comeback and the late day rally brought the market up to finish the day down only 347 points!

DOW JONES SELL OFF - May 6, 2010

Wow…what a crazy day indeed!

Last week we advised our Swing Trading newsletter subscribers to go into this week on "High Alert".

This alert was due to the market putting in its first significant LOWER HIGH since the rally started in February.

He is a a similar chart that we posted with our "alert".

Dow Jones Lower High April 30, 2010

The S&P and NASDAQ 100 charts had the same chart pattern which was a "triple heads up".

When the market opened up on Monday and rallied right out of the gate finishing just off the highs a lot of traders thought Fridays price action had to be a "fake out".

For us though Tuesday's price AND volume action kept us looking more to the SHORT side for Swing Trading opportunities.

When we have a strong move (like the DOWN move on Friday) followed by a LOW VOLUME "inside day" it is only an indication that price is "stalling".

DOW JONES SWING TRADING INSIDE BAR

When price "stalls" we simply wait for the market to tell us what it will do next.

Then on Wednesday the market spoke LOUD and CLEAR and confirmed that the dominant direction was to the DOWN side by gapping down and selling off on INCREASING VOLUME.

DOW JONES - Inside Bar Continuation Pattern

Going into Wednesday there were several stocks and ETF's that had nice SHORT Swing Trading setups.

Or for those of you who don't feel comfortable SHORTING yet we recommend you focus on the Inverse ETF's.

DXD, SKF, FAZ, and DUG (just to name a few) all had nice LONG setups since they are Inverse ETF's.

If you were SHORT (or LONG the Inverse ETF's) going into Thursday everything was good to go until the excitement started in the afternoon.

Then things got a little tricky.

If you use intraday data in your swing trading the extreme volatility Thursday afternoon gave you a chance to lock in some nice profits.

If you are able to only use end of day data then the situation was obviously a little different for you.

We use intraday data so we did a complete post on how we handled yesterday's extreme volatility HERE.

We exited most of our positions yesterday as our trailing stops were hit when the market rebounded after the massive sell off.

If you werent prepared or didnt have a plan then you probably gave back  some profits.

We had no problem being almost flat even if the market would have continued significantly lower today. (the DOW was down today but still higher than the LOW of yesterday).

We followed our trading plan and exited our positions when our rules told us to.

Today (Friday) was simply a day for us to watch the market to see how things would finish for the week.

We aren't looking to chase this market down at this point.

We will sit on the sidelines and patiently wait for our next LOW RISK/HIGH REWARD trade setups to present themselves.

A few sector ETF's we will keep a close eye on as we move forward are the SILVER (SLV), GOLD (GLD) and the GOLD MINERS (GDX) ETF's.

After such a crazy week in the market don't get over anxious and start trading just to trade.

It can be tough when the market is moving the way it did this week.

It creates "excitement" and sometimes you may feel like you are "missing the boat".

BE PATIENT!

There will be plenty of opportunity in the very near future for you to get back into the market no matter which way it goes from here.

Until next week…

BE PATIENT, PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL and GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Swing Trading Week in Review – April 30, 2010

Saturday, May 1st, 2010

After making NEW YEARLY HIGHS on Monday the market finished down almost 1.8% this week.

Sellers came out in force on Tuesday but the market quickly rebounded Wednesday and Thursday.

The low volume "rebound" came to end on Friday as sellers stepped in again creating a sell off that drove the market down right until the closing bell.

Dow Jones Index 4/30/10

As far as individual sectors go, the Financial ETF's (XLF, IAI, IYF), all made another move lower this week.

We have been watching this sector closely since the negative news came out about Goldman Sachs.

Last week we noticed, and posted to our blog, that the Financial ETF's were not showing much strength as the market made its move up on Thursday and Friday.

The follow through to the down side started on Monday allowing us go LONG the Inverse Financial ETF (FAZ) for a nice short term swing trade.

FAZ - Swing Trading ETF

After hitting resistance at the short term double top FAZ pulled back a bit and continued its UP move on Friday.

Another sector we have been watching closely is the Steel sector.

We began to notice the Steel ETF (SLX) was possibly running out of steam during the market move to new highs on April 14th and 15th.

SLX never made it to new highs as the market rallied and actually begin to sell off as the market made its new high on the 15th.

The weakness continued last week and as the market again rallied to NEW HIGHS by Friday, SLX made an unimpressive bounce off of the 50 Day SMA.

When the sellers stepped in on Tuesday this week SLX sold off right out of the gate and never looked back.

The "Gap Down and Go" as we call it created a "lower high" and was a good opportunity for a SHORT Swing Trade in this sector.

SLX - Swing Trading ETF

So what do we do going into next week?

With the market putting in its first significant "lower high" this week we will continue to look for signs of follow through to the down side.

As always though we will continue to look for opportunities on both the LONG and SHORT side of the market just in case the market finds its legs again and makes a run back towards the highs.

Just remember that being prepared for ANYTHING and EVERYTHING increases your chances of trading success.

Until next week…Good trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – April 23, 2010

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

NEW HIGHS…YET AGAIN!

Last Friday when the news came out about Goldman Sachs a lot of traders (including us) started to wonder if the market would finally pullback after a bit of negative news.

Well this week the market spoke LOUD and CLEAR by finishing a strong week at NEW HIGHS for the year.

That makes this an almost 1400 point rally since "that reversal day" which happened on February 5th.

DJIA 1400 Point Rally

As far as individual sectors go the FInancial ETF's (XLF, IYF, IAI) all had a strong week but DID NOT make news highs with the market.

The Semiconductors ETF (SMH), which broke out last week, had a lackluster week but we will continue to watch for follow through to the upside.

The Oil services (OIH) and Energy ETF's (XLE) finally broke to the upside this week.

OIH ETF - Swing Trading Break Out

A few weeks ago in this blog we posted about the relative strength we were seeing in the Homebuilders ETF (XHB).

This week XHB setup another very nice swing trade opportunity.

We posted the details about the trade HERE but lets look at the chart.

XHB - ETF Swing Trade

With the market being this strong there were a TON of individual names that were UP strong this week.

The Retail sector was particularly strong with stocks like JWN, SKS, TIF and several others having a great week.

So will the incredible strength in these sectors and the overall market continue as we move into next week?

Of course no one knows for so just continue to listen to the market and position yourself accordingly.

DO NOT get complacent and let your guard down.

Follow your plan and your trading rules and be prepared for ANYTHING.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

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