Posts Tagged ‘ETF Swing Trading’

Swing Trading Week in Review – July 2, 2010

Saturday, July 3rd, 2010

In last weeks Swing Trading BLOG post we said that this would be a pivotal week in the market.

Well after the dust settled this week it was VERY CLEAR that the BEARS are in charge!

After Monday's "inside day" price action and volume spoke LOUD and CLEAR on Tuesday as the market gapped down and continued to sell off until the week came to close on Friday.

DJIA

The last few weeks have been tough for Swing Traders and this week was no exception.

This week was tough for Swing Traders for a few reasons:

Starting in early June we had nine days where we basically went straight up and now we have had about ten days of trading where the market has gone straight down!

If you are "pullback" trader like we are there has not been many chances over the past month or so for you to implement your trading strategy.

If you did  not have a plan in place and were NOT prepared for Tuesday then you may have "missed the boat" when the market gapped down and sold off for the rest of the week.

This has been a "fast market" and by that we mean that there ARE chart patterns and pullbacks to trade BUT these pullbacks are shallow, maybe a day or so, and then they continue to move.

This type of price action creates "fast" trend channels and for most traders these are much more difficult to identify and trade.

Lets take a look at some of the stocks we have been following lately to show you what we mean.

Last week we walked you thorough our entry into Nemont Mining (NEM) on a LONG Swing Trade.

This is the chart from last week.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

As we told you we were able to exit some of our position at $61.67 during last Friday's afternoon rally and we were holding on to the rest with a trailing stop.

Here is how the chart looks at the end of this week.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

NEM broke out to NEW HIGHS last week so we were expecting some type of follow through to the UP side this week.

Monday NEM stalled and was followed by two days (Tuesday and Wednesday) of slightly UP price movement combined with decreasing volume.

This combination should be a BIG FLASHING YELLOW LIGHT to you just as it is for us.

Our trailing stop was hit at $60.75 on Thursday as NEM traded down through the low of the previous day.

We have marked both of our exits (Exit 1 and Exit 2) on the chart above.

Still a profitable trade but not what we expect from a stock breaking out to new highs.

At pivotal times in the market we often have a few LONG positions and a few SHORT positions and more often than not we get stopped out of the trades that end up being on the wrong side of the market.

One of our losing trades (we had a few) this week was in Sandisk (SNDK).

Here is the chart of SNDK to give you the context…strong stock making higher highs and higher lows.

SNDK - Long Swing Trade

During this weeks trading action MONDAY was the make it or break it day in our opinion.

We have been following the recent strength in SNDK so after last weeks pullback we were ready to get LONG again on the first sign of strength.

Monday we got what we were looking for as SNDK traded through Fridays high just as the market also attempted to trade higher.

Our entry was triggered at $47 and our initial stop was set at $44.92 for a $2.08/share risk.

When the market did not follow through on Monday SNDK reversed midday and ended right at the low of the day.

One of the hardest situations that Swing Traders face is what to do when you have a BIG opening gap (up or down) in the market.

Tuesday morning that is exactly what the market did as it opened up the day down significantly from Mondays close.

Like most stocks SNDK was no exception and gapped down with market and opened at $44.76 which was BELOW our initial stop.

Our exit strategy when this happens is dependent on the context of the overall picture that the market, sector and individual stock is painting.

in this specific example the strategy calls for an exit on the open for a number of reasons.

Our actual exit price was $44.74 so we actually lost  $2.26/shareMORE than initially planned.

Here is a zoomed in version so you can see the details a bit better.

SNDK - Long Swing Trade

This losing trade in SNDK shows you why having a position sizing and money management strategy in place is so important.

Due to the frequent overnight gaps we face as swing traders we recommend that you have a "buffer" built in to your position sizing strategy to allow for a "worst case" scenario.

When strong stocks like ALK, NTAP, SNDK and MELI start to break down at pivotal times that usually means our SHORT positions (weak stocks or ETF's) are continuing to sell off.

The "weak" Retail (RTH) ETF continued its sell off this week but you almost had to be in this position coming into the week.

The other noticeably weak sector, the Homebuilders (XHB), offered you yet another opportunity to get SHORT as it broke to NEW LOWS on Tuesday's "gap and go".

Other SHORT trades that worked out nicely were LPNT, ERTS, X, and MGM.

I mentioned above about this being a "fast" market and here are a few example of stocks with "fast channels" to demonstrate my point.

PCAR - Fast Trend Channel SNPS - Fast Trend Channel LRCX - Fast Price Channel

In all of the charts above you can see that after pulling back from their recent highs all of them attempt to move higher on Monday.

They all fail to move higher the next day essentially creating a one day UP move before continuing to sell off.

If they all would have moved higher for another day or so the chart pattern would have painted a more clear picture for those traders not yet skilled at identifying this type of "fast" trend change.

Probably the best example of just how 'fast" this market has been is to look at the overall market ETF's for the DJIA (DIA) and the S&P 500 (SPY).

DIA - Swing Tading ETF SPY - Swing Trading ETF

You can see how the market sold off everyday last week as it put in its first pullback after the 9 day up move.

Monday you can see how price "stalls" and creates an inside bar.

Tuesday the market "gaps down" and sells off for the rest of the week not giving swing traders much of a pullback to SHORT.

In order to capitalize on this type of "fast" price action you need to learn how trends transition and use price action and volume as your leading indicators.

These are the exact strategies we teach in our PVT Trading Tactics class so if you would like to learn more you can check it out HERE.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

 

 

 

Swing Trading Week in Review – June 25, 2010

Friday, June 25th, 2010

Swing Trading Blog Post-

Well after the markets last "mini" rally off of the February lows that market finally put in long awaited and much anticipated pullback this week.

DIA - Diamonds ETF

The two "weak" sectors, Retail (RTH) and the Homebuilders (XHB), we highlighted in last weeks BLOG POST (and in last Friday nights webinar) sold off nicely and actually made NEW LOWS as the market pulled back this week.

RTH - Retail ETF XHB - Homebuilders ETF

Coming into this week there were several SHORT Swing Trade setups in some of the stocks the these "weak" sectors.

WSM, WMT, JCG, ANF and many others were on our SHORT Watch list this week and they all moved nicely to the down side.

The "strong" stocks we talked about last week (AKAM, ALK, NTAP) all pulled back with the overall market this week.

The strongest sector we discussed at the webinar last Friday was GOLD and the GOLD MINERS.

After a nice run up last week you saw most of the stocks and ETF's in this sector put in a short retrace from Monday through Wednesday this week.

GDX - Gold Miners ETF

On Thursday we got our entry signal for several stocks but lets take a look at Newmont Mining (NEM) since this stock seemed to be the leader of the pack in the last UP move.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

NEM BROKE OUT to new multi-year highs last week so were "stalking" this stock waiting for another opportunity to GET LONG after a decent pullback.

Here is how the chart looked last Friday.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

After this nice strong UP move through the previous high (black line) we waited for the first pullback.

That pullback started on Monday and we watched price firm up a bit by the close on Wednesday as it traded around the area of the previous high.

We were watching this previous "resistance" level to now become the new "support" level.

NEW - Long Swing Trade

We still need price action to confirm that this area would hold as "support" and we received this confirmation on Thursday morning.

Right out of the gate on Thursday NEM traded through the high of the previous day ($59.43) giving us an entry signal at $59.45.

NEM moved up for most of the morning only to close the day well below the open.

Another intraday reversal!

Here is how the chart of NEM looked by the close of the trading day on Thursday.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

Price and volume were both increasing but the end of day reversal made it a little tougher for us to determine if the volume was bullish or bearish.

The next day we needed to see the signs that NEM was going to move higher.

Today (Friday) we got exactly what we needed from NEM.

Price moved higher on increasing volume throughout the day.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

Early this afternoon we were able to piece out of some of our position in NEM at the $61.67 level.

We are trailing our stop in NEM based on our BREAKOUT strategy rules and will exit the rest of our position just as our plan and this strategy dictates.

NEM is breaking out to NEW HIGHS once again and the sector as a whole is showing some tremendous strength so we are hoping to see some nice follow through next week.

Speaking of next week it seems that we are really at a pivotal point in the overall market.

We have taken out the last "swing high' and rallied up to (but still under) the 50 day SMA.

We are now in the process of pulling back from the high of the recent up move.

Another run up towards the 50 day SMA wouldn't surprise us at all.

On the flip side though there are still a lot of "weak" looking chart patterns and a some stocks and sectors making NEW LOWS.

So what is a SHORT TERM TRADER to do?

Be prepared for anything!

You have heard that somewhere before right? (this BLOG over and over and over)

As always we will have a list of STRONG and WEAK stocks and sectors on our Watch list  for Monday.

That way no matter what the market decides to do we can take the appropriate action and get ourselves on the right side of the market.

Until next week…GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

P.S. Feel free to join us Friday July 2nd at 6pm for our next "Weekly Wrap Up" webinar.

You can click HERE to register!

Swing Trading Week in Review – June 18, 2010

Friday, June 18th, 2010

As the market continued its recent up move our "short term" LONG swing trades turned out nicely.

After bouncing off of the February lows the market has moved up for the last 9 days straight.

DJIA  Daily Chart

As you know from our last few BLOG posts we entered into some LONG swing trades (in strong stocks) as the market confirmed its "bounce" off of the February lows.

Strong stocks like ALK, AKAM and NTAP (chart below) hit their profit targets this week.

NTAP - Swing Trade

One of the strong stocks the we did not take a trade in but also turned out nicely was MELI.

MELI - Swing Trade

MELI made a nice run to new yearly highs as the market made its "bounce".

In tonight's webinar we discussed how we determined which stocks and ETF's to trade during this last move in the market.

One of the biggest "clues" we look for is when a stock or ETF shows strength or weakness in relation to what the overall market is doing.

Look at the stocks we listed above.

All of the stocks above were showing signs of strength as the market was trading down to the February lows.

As the market confirmed its "double bottom" price pattern these strong stocks and ETF's were putting in a higher low prior to taking off to new highs.

The strongest stocks were also trading above their 50 period SMA, a basic filter we use to determine strength or weakness, while the market was trading well below it.

In contrast the weaker ETF's (and individual stocks) were the ones that made new lows or lower lows as the market "double bottomed".

Take a look at the chart of the DOW (above) and compare it to the RTH and XHB (below).

RTH - Swing Trade

XHB - ETF Swing Trade

You can see how both sectors made new lows as the market put in the "double bottom" on June 8th.

We steered clear of these sectors during the recent up move and will continue to do so until they show signs of becoming at least as strong (and preferably stronger) than the overall market.

By locating the "clues" that these stocks and ETF's were giving us we were able to make some profitable LONG trades in a then down trending environment.

If you have any questions about the trades we entered into this week please post them below…we would love to hear from you!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

 

 

 

 

Swing Trading Week in Review – June 4, 2010

Friday, June 4th, 2010

And here we go again!

The Dow and S&P finished down 2% for the week while the Nasdaq held up a little better by losing ONLY 1.7%.

DIA Swing Trading ETF

Sounds pretty plain and simple but the trading during the week was a little bumpy.

The holiday week started off with yet another GAP DOWN in the market.

We know that the buyers have been defending the area just above 10,000 in the Dow as this GAP DOWN brought us right into this area.

The market rallied right from the open but late day selling came into the market and pushed the market down to close below its open…a true reversal day.

Wednesday the buyers stepped back into the market at near the same levels (just above 10,000) pushing the market higher right into the close.

Thursday the market GAPPED UP a bit but quickly fizzled out and closed near its mid point of the day.

Then Friday comes and BAM!…down we go again.

Sellers aggressively took the market lower with the Dow finishing down over 300 points for the day!

This was an important week in our opinion.

Not because of any significant financial related news or event.

We think it was important because of the lesson you could learn from this weeks trading action.

If you are a short term trader then the valuable lesson to be learned from this week's price action is to have "re-entry" plan in place.

Let's rewind a bit and look at the charts to see what we mean,

After last Friday's lackluster performance it appeared that Tuesday was setting up for the next leg lower in this down trend.

DIA - Dow 30 ETF

As a matter of fact there were a TON of SHORT Swing Trading setups on our "watch list".

We notified our newsletter subscribers of several SHORT stock setups and several possible LONG Inverse ETF setups for Tuesday morning.

The market GAPPED DOWN on Tuesday and the late day sell off actually triggered several of our SHORT swing trades near the close.

We did notice however that by the close the volume levels for this "reversal day" were low…not exactly what you want to see when the market reverses.

Trading price action is our primary focus but this volume "clue" was a caution flag for us.

On Wednesday the market rallied right from the open and closed near its high for the day…another bad sign for our SHORT positions.

Our best trades usually work right from the start and with the market moving up so strongly we were now "taking some pain" in our positions.

Another thing we noticed is that in some of our positions the volume INCREASED as price rallied on Wednesday.

We know from understanding the PVT Method that price moving UP as volume INCREASES is classic UP trending price action.

Look at the chart of KLAC below.

You can see where we entered out SHORT position (RED ARROW) and then look at Wednesday and Thursday's price and volume action.

KLAC - Swing Trading Stop Out

KLAC trades higher on INCREASING VOLUME (blue arrows) and closes above the recent swing high and our STOP LOSS point (black line).

Friday KLAC heads lower on INCREASING VOLUME confirming the "two stage" retrace.

Some of our other SHORT positions went up a bit with the market on Wednesday but on LOWER VOLUME (a clue of things to come?).

Let's look at one of our "good" SHORT positions.

Notice on the chart of DOW Chemical (DOW) below how unlike KLAC price actually moves sideways both Wednesday and Thursday.

DOW - SHORT swing Trade

This sideways price action is accompanied by LOWER, DECREASING VOLUME a good sign for our SHORT position.

DOW follows through to the down side nicely on INCREASING VOLUME as the market sells off on Friday.

As you can see from the charts above things played out pretty much as anticipated.

We got stopped out of some of our SHORTS that continued to rally on increased volume on Thursday.

Can you guess by now which positions stopped us out?

Our other positions that went up a bit with the market on LOWER volume (like Dow Chemical) ended up closing under their recent swing highs so we were able to hold onto to these.

We thought that Thursday's move in some of these stocks was possibly a "two stage" retrace so we were ready by Friday to re-enter our SHORT positions if price action called for it.

Friday the market GAPPED DOWN again and after about an hour of sideways trading rolled over and finished the day DOWN over 300 points on INCREASING VOLUME!

Our "good" short positions followed through nicely and, as planned, we re-entered into some of our positions that stopped us out just the day before.

By using both price action and volume we avoided getting "shaken out" of some of our SHORT positions.

Getting STOPPED OUT for a loss or near break even is not fun but by following our "re-entry" rules we were able to get back on the right side of the market and hopefully profit from our analysis.

Until next week….GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

© Swing Trading Boot Camp 2024