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Swing Trading Week in Review – September 3, 2010

Sunday, September 5th, 2010

Swing Trading Blog Post-

What a difference a week makes.

In last week's BLOG post we told that their were buyers at the 10,000 level in the DJIA.

We saw the buyers step in and hold the market up last week and again on Monday and Tuesday of this week.

Wednesday is when the real fun started.

After a big GAP UP Wednesday morning we saw the market rally the rest of the day to finish just off the high of the day.

Thursday brought more of the same and then the GAP UP, sell off and intraday reversal during Friday's session is a clear sign that buyers were in control.

The market continues it's erratic behavior and if you have trading for any amount of time you know that the month of September is likely to bring more of the same.

Last week we posted about the strength in the Agriculture related ETF's…DBA and MOO.

We gave you the "head's up" to watch this sector as it seemed ready for it's next move to the UP side.

Both ETF's followed through nicely this week as the market pushed higher to end the week.

Several of the other "strong" ETF's rallied to new multi month highs this week.

The Real Estate (IYR) and Utilities (XLU) are on this list as well as a few International ETF's like THD and BZF.

We also saw the Energy (XLE) and Retail (RTH) ETF's break their short term down trend lines.

The weak sector's we identified last week…the Semiconductor's and FInancial's…put in a decent bounce off of their recent low's.

We wondered last week if these sector ETF's were going to "bounce" back to their 50 Day SMA's or if they were ready to push to NEW LOW'S.

We got our answer although the "bounce" in the semiconductor's was really less than impressive.

The last 3 trading sessions have taken the market and several stocks to near short term "over bought" levels.

We are not going to chase the market at this point and will simply wait for the next opportunity to initiate some trades.

We will let our current trades play out and manage our positions accordingly.

September is notorious for being a slow, choppy month for trading so be patient and wait for your ideal setups to get into the market.

Until next week...Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: DIA, ETF Swing Trading, Financial ETF, Retail ETF, RTH, SMH, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, XLE, XLF
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Charts, Technical Analysis | No Comments »

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 20, 2010

Sunday, August 22nd, 2010

After the retrace back to the 50 Day SMA last week we saw the DJIA put in a bit of "bounce" to start out this week of trading.

After a nice GAP UP on Tuesday we saw the market stall on Wednesday as it failed to trade above Tuesday's HIGH.

Sellers jumped back into the market on Thursday and pushed the market lower to close the week in negative territory.

In last week's BLOG POST we posted about how we saw the market "transition" last Tuesday and Wednesday.

The type of price action transition we noticed had us looking for some SHORT Swing Trading setups coming into the start of this week.

As the market "bounced" to start the week we patiently waited for the WEAK stocks and ETF's to trigger a SHORT entry.

After posting about the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" chart pattenr in the Financial ETF (XLF) we followed up last week with a nice trade in the Inverse Financial ETF (FAZ).

This week FAZ setup yet another LONG trade entry as the weak Financial sector headed lower again.

Another sector ETF that gave us a clue to look for SHORT trades was the Energy ETF (XLE).

After putting in a nice up move on Tuesday we watching as XLE reversed it's upward move and head straight down on Wednesday on INCREASED VOLUME.

This created a confirmed "lower high" a put our new down channel in place.

This move in the ETF had us looking through the charts of individual stocks in this sector for possible SHORT trade setups Wednesday afternoon.

APC, SLB and CVX all had nice chart patterns with clearly defined risk levels in place.

This is a good example of how to use sector ETF's to look for Swing Trading opportunities in stocks that a closely related or correlated to that sector.

The Oil Services ETF (OIH) had a nearly identical chart pattern.

DO, BHI and NBR we good candidates in this sector.

On the flip side of the coin we saw the GOLD and GOLD MINERS ETF's have a nice week to the UP side as their recent relative strength continues.

Stocks to watch in this sector going forward are AU, EGO, AEM, NEM, ABX, GG, and GG.

Also keep an eye on the Retail ETF (RTH) in the days to come.

We have noticed some strong BUYING in the some of the retail names this week.

This could be a sign of things to come but as always we need confirmation to declare the down trend has come to an end.

As we go into next week there are a few things that we have noticed that have us wondering whether or not this most recent down move has any legs.

We still have a TON of stocks that are holding up (showing relative strength) despite the selling we have witnessed the last two days of this week.

AKAM, MELI, INFA, MO, SNPS, and VRSN to name a few.

Although the DJIA and S&P have technically put in a "lower high" AND "lower low" the Nasdaq has only put in a "lower high" and has yet to confirm a "lower low".

No one knows for sure what we will do come Monday morning so as always be prepared for anything so that you can take the appropriate action when the market tells you it's true intentions.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

P.S

Would like to learn more about how we locate our short term trades in stocks and ETF's?

If so feel free join us Friday, August 27th for our "Finding Swing Trading Opportunities in Today's Market" webinar.

You can register for this absolutely FREE Swing Trading webinar HERE.

Tags: APC, DIA, ETF Swing Trading, Financial ETF, Retail ETF, SHORT SWING TRADING, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Volume, XLE, XLF
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Charts | No Comments »

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 13, 2010

Sunday, August 15th, 2010

After last week's low volatility sideways price action we saw the market transition this week putting the short term UP trend in jeopardy.

This "transition", which began on Tuesday, also came with increasing volume.

To say this market has been a little Schizophrenic would be an understatement.

In the past few months it seems that every time the market seems to be heading one way it stops on a dime and goes the other.

We have posted about the frustration that some short term traders are feeling in this trading environment.

One of the many skills you need to master as a short term trader is the ability to identify how and when the market (and stocks) transition from one mode to another.

A good example of this was the type of trading we saw on Tuesday of this week.

If you didn't put all the pieces of the puzzle together in time you could have easily missed "Transition Tuesday".

Monday we saw the markets GAP UP and follow through slightly to the UP side on LOW VOLUME.

We would like to see HIGHER VOLUME as the market moves higher in a short term UP trend and we did not (as of yet) get that.

Tuesday"s FED DAY showing the typical choppy trading after the GAP DOWN until the announcement came in the early afternoon sending the market a bit higher.

The GAP DOWN and rally into the close had some traders thinking that this type trading was a positive sign of things to come.

We on the other hand saw it as a chance for the "big boys" to get SHORT.

Our suspicion was confirmed when the market GAPPED DOWN again on Wednesday.

By the close on Wednesday we saw the market sell off as volume increased yet again.

We saw some sector ETF's that were trying to break to the upside FAIL TO BREAKOUT and actually move lower on increasing volume.

XLE, OIH, USO, and SLX all where showing signs of a possible move up but ultimately ended up selling off and giving back most of the gains from the past week and a half.

The Financial ETF (XLF) inverted "head and shoulders" pattern that we posted about also FAILED TO BREAKOUT to the upside and sold off with the rest of the market.

This was a very good example of a FAILURE and a transition from (short term) bullish to bearish.

These "failed" chart patterns often times lead to very profitable trades if you can identify the "transition" fast enough.

Once we noticed the "failure" we entered into a LONG position in the INVERSE FINANCIAL ETF (FAZ) for a nice STS trade.

In our next "Swing Trading Weekly Wrap Up" webinar this upcoming Friday night we will go over this and some of the other trades we made last week.

Feel free to join us!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: DIA, ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Technical Analysis | 1 Comment »

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 6, 2010

Saturday, August 7th, 2010

The week of going nowhere!

After a decent GAP UP Monday morning the market followed through with…nothing really.

Low volatility and volume usually lead to "sideways" type price action and that is exactly what we saw this week.

The 2 blue arrows above indicate the "double top" area that we posted in last week's BLOG.

Monday morning's GAP UP brought us up above this level and ended up trading above it for almost the entire week.

Friday we saw the market GAP DOWN and then rally a bit only to ROLL OVER to the DOWN SIDE prior to an afternoon reversal which brought the market back over the "double top" area.

Here is a look at the 15 minute chart so you can we what we mean.

Monday through Thursday you can see the "sideways" price action we encountered.

Although the INTRADAY price action was great this type lack of follow thorugh can be very frustrating for Swing Traders.

Most (not all) of our positions did exactly as the market did this week…went almost nowhere.

Although the GAP UP on Monday and the Friday afternoon reversal indicate that there are buyers at this level in the market it is still a sign of overall indecision (so far) to move this market higher or lower.

There are still a lot of stocks that have great chart patterns that my be setting up for some nice trades in the week ahead.

CHKP, NTAP , ALK, BAX and CAL are a few that we will be watching.

The Steel Sector has also been very strong as of late so we will continue to watch SLX, X, CLF, AKS, and STLD.

With the decent rally (and lack of DOWNSIDE follow through) in the GOLD MINERS this week we will watch to see how these stocks shape up during next weeks trading.

A exception to the LOW VOLATILITY theme of this BLOG post this week was the Education Stocks.

APOL, DV, COCO and CECO all had nice chart patterns that setup some great SHORT trades on Tuesday.

Take a look at these charts and you will see great example of the PRICE and VOLUME relationship.

Also as a reminder our next PVT (Price, Volume and Trend Lines) Trading Tactics class will be held next Saturday August 14th.

If learning how to use Price Action and analyze Volume to make trading decisions in stocks and/or ETF's is of interest to you then be sure not to miss it!

Our new Swing Trading BOOTCAMP, Swing Trading Strategy Class, and FREE webinar schedules will be coming out this week so we hope to see you at one (or all) of the upcoming events.

Until next week…Good trading to YOU!

Tags: 50 Day SMA, ABX, AKS, ALK, APOL, BAX, CECO, CLF, COCO, DIA, DV, ETF, ETF Swing Trading, NTAP, SLX, STLD, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, Swing Trading Strategies, Swing Trading Volume, Trend Lines, X
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Intraday Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Charts, Technical Analysis | 4 Comments »