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Swing Trading Week in Review – October 1, 2010

Sunday, October 3rd, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

Well after the long awaited BREAKOUT we saw last week the market followed up with…a nice long week of NOTHING!

Coming into this week there was a lot of optimism based on the recent bullish action we have seen in the overall market.

Traders (including us) were expecting at least a little follow through this week but instead were met with yet another frustrating week of consolidating price action.

Most of the stocks and ETF's did the exact same thing as the overall market.

A few were up slightly as the week came to an end but nothing to write home about.

There were a few exceptions as we saw the Energy and Oil Services ETF's have nice continuation moves this week.

In last weeks BLOG post we showed you our entry into XLE and the pullback that followed.

This week XLE continued its UP move despite the "stall" in the overall market.

As you would expect the Oil Services ETF (OIH) had a strong week.

RIG and DO were two stocks in this sector the gave us LONG trade signals this week.

GOLD and the GOLD MINERS (GDX) came back to life this week as well and SILVER (SLV) is acting just as bullish.

With last weeks news in the AIRLINE sector we saw the Airline ETF (FAA) trade up to a NEW HIGH for the YEAR.

Technology, Retail, Real Estate, Financial and the Homebuilders all had a lackluster week.

One sector to watch moving forward is going to be Agriculture.

This week we saw big time selling come into some of the stocks in this recently strong sector.

MON, MOS, CF and ADM all sold off this week despite the market holding up above its BREAKOUT level.

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) have now put in their first significant pullback after last months nice run up.

This pullback may be a good time to look to buy some of the stronger names in this sector but the caution light is now flashing as we move forward.

This type of price and volume action is not yet a transition from a "bullish" to "bearish" bias for this sector but it is something to watch for in days/weeks to come.

The overall market is still very strong as almost every major sector ETF is trading above its 50 day SMA.

Last weeks "consolidation" is telling us that the buyers and sellers are playing a big game of tug-of-war at this level.

Obviously anything is possible next week.

A continuation move to the UP side wouldn't surprise us but neither would a retrace back near the 50 day SMA.

The key (as always) is to be prepared with a plan of action for either outcome.

What stocks and/or ETF's will you look to buy if the UP move continues?

What will you do if the market sells off on Monday indicating that the market is pulling back?

Will you SHORT anything or simply sit on the sidelines and wait?

You know what they say..."failing to plan is planning to fail".

Have your plan is place and execute when the time is right!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: 50 Day SMA, DBA, ETF Swing Trading, FAA, GDX, MON, MOO, MOS, OIH, Retail ETF, Sector ETF's, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, Swing Trading Volume, XLE
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, ETF Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Charts, Technical Analysis | 3 Comments »

Swing Trading Week in Review – September 24, 2010

Sunday, September 26th, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

Well we FINALLY got the directional move in the market that everyone has been waiting waiting for.

The BREAKOUT we saw on Monday was quickly followed by a 3 day shallow pullback which had some traders thinking the market was up to it's same old tricks.

With the way some of the individual sector's were acting we were actually thinking the same thing.

After holding up nicely for so long the Real Estate sector ETF (IYR) broke out with the overall market on Monday.

For the 3 days following the BREAKOUT sellers aggressively came in and drove this ETF well below the level of last week's consolidation.

Here is the chart…

You can see how this BREAKOUT failed and stopped us out (and a lot of other traders I would assume) as it retraces all the way back to it's 50 period SMA.

A swallow pullback in lines with the overall market was expected from such a strong ETF so this type of price action was not only frustrating but concerning as well.

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) had similar price action after giving us a LONG signal on Monday.

The retrace that followed created an "equal bottom" and came very close to our initial STOP LOSS level.

Friday XLE continued it's move up as the overall market BROKE OUT again.

The Retail sector ETF (RTH) continues to be the rock star!

Even after being short term OVERBOUGHT we saw RTH break to the UPSIDE Monday.

RTH then created a nice swallow, almost sideways consolidation during the 3 days that the overall market pulled back.

Friday the strength in this sector continued as RTH gapped up and traded through the $94-$96 level we mentioned last week.

One sector in transition this week were the Semiconductor's.

The SMH has been a real laggard but this week we saw buyers step in a finally bring this ETF back above it's 50 day SMA.

Although CREE and SNDK did result in new SHORT trades for us early in the week overall this sector seems to have found some new strength.

KLAC and NVDA stand out so we will watch some of the other stocks in this sector as we move into trading next week.

Friday was one of those days that there were so many trades that were triggering that it was hard to keep up!

We saw a ton of stocks BREAKING OUT and some stocks that just continue to RIP to the upside without even taking a breather.

Amazon (AMZN) opened this month at $126 and has gone straight up since then!

No retrace, no pullback just a parabolic RIP up to (so far) $160!!!

Apple (AAPL) has basically done the same thing by going from the $240's straight up to close above $292 on Friday!

Some of the BREAKOUT stocks our list included AGU, MMR, CCJ, INFA, HAL, SMG, WYN, NTAP, QCOM, CMI, EQIX and our recent money machine SOHU.

Not our entire list but a good list of stocks to watch as we move forward the next few weeks.

There were also a TON (way too many to list here) of non-breakout LONG trade setups last week.

This is a good sign of overall strength in the market and much better than just one or two sectors leading the way.

All in all the market is looking stronger and stronger but as always FOLLOW THROUGH will be the key.

Although there are a few stocks on our list that look weak it is hard to make a case for getting SHORT in light of the recent strength the market has shown us.

That being said we will continue to do what we do each day and prepare accordingly for each and every outcome that the market can present us.

Doing so allows us to react accordingly (and hopefully profitably) when the market decides what to do next.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: 50 Day SMA, ETF Swing Trading, IYR, Retail ETF, RTH, Sector ETF's, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, Swing Trading Strategies, Swing Trading Volume, XLE
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, ETF Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns | 1 Comment »

Swing Trading Week in Review – September 17, 2010

Friday, September 17th, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading Boot Camp

The UPWARD drift continues!

In last week's BLOG POST we mentioned the lack of volume we are seeing and the need for volume to increase to move this market decisively higher.

Well the market did move up this week but as the first line of this post states it was more of a drift than a significant move.

The move this week puts us right back up to the June 21st price levels that we saw just prior to the sell off that took us to NEW LOW'S for the year.

The best chart that illustrates the larger sideways trading channel we are in has to be the chart of the S&P 500 Index.

Here is the chart for the SPY to show how this weeks trading action brings us right to very top of this channel.

The Nasdaq has actually been a bit stronger.

This most recent UP move brings to QQQQ'S above that all important level set on June 21st but after a 12 day up move it seems way overbought in the short term.

As far as sectors go it is pretty much the same story as last week.

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) remain strong with several stocks in this sector pushing higher this week.

DBA actually pushed to a NEW HIGH for the year this week while MOO trades a bit below its yearly high.

In last week's post we mentioned a few stocks to watch in this sector coming into this week.

One of the few trades we made this week was in John Deere & Company (DE) which is one of the biggest holdings in MOO.

After showing so much recent relative strength DE put in a nice tight sideways consolidation pattern last week.

As the market GAPPED UP on Monday DE was up right along with it.

Our original entry target was just above the high set in early August which was $69.47.

When the market rolled over mid morning DE stayed strong as we entered into a position at $69.55.

Our initial STOP LOSS level is set at $67.10 which is just below the recent consolidation area.

This puts our initial risk at $2.45/share.

Our PROFIT TARGET is set at $74.45 which is twice our initial risk per share ($2.45 x 2= $4.90 + $69.55).

After 3 more days of consolidation DE made a HIGH VOLUME UP MOVE today and finally pushed our position nicely to the UPSIDE.

The trade is still open so we will manage our position accordingly and let you know how it turns out.

As far as the other sector's in the market go we cautioned you last week about the LOW VOLUME moves in XLE and RTH.

XLE actually put in a retrace this week despite the strength in the overall market.

RTH on the other hand GAPPED UP nicely with the market on Monday and then followed WITH VOLUME on Tuesday.

A nice move UP since breaking the DOWN TREND channel line.

With the extreme upward angle of this last move and possible overhead resistance in the $94-$96 area RTH is short term overbought just like the overall market.

Take caution going into next week but continue to watch this sector moving forward once the market has pulled back a bit.

The Real Estate ETF (IYR) is holding up nicely but consolidated this entire week.

Breakout or pullback?

Keep this one on your radar as well in the coming days.

The notable laggard (so far) is still the Semiconductor sector ETF (SMH).

The week's upward drift still leaves this weak ETF trading below its 50 day SMA while almost every other sector is trading back above theirs.

CREE, CRUS, SNDK (although it stopped us out last week) and a few other names in this sector still have very weak charts.

This could all change in the near future especially if the overall market continues to strengthen.

The big picture tells us that the overall action in the market remains sideways.

The recent strength does look favorable for a continued UP move in the market after we digest some of these recent gains.

BUT…

We have seen this a few times before on both the LONG and SHORT side of the market.

Don't get to comfortable with this market just yet by only staying focused on one way trades.

Be prepared for anything (have LONG and SHORT ideas) that way whatever the market decides to do from here you can take the appropriate action.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: 50 Day SMA, DE, DIA, ETF Swing Trading, IYR, Retail ETF, RTH, SHORT SWING TRADING, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, Swing Trading Strategies, XLE
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Charts, Technical Analysis | 1 Comment »

Swing Trading Week in Review – September 10, 2010

Sunday, September 12th, 2010

Swing Trading Blog Post-

This week the overall market continued to show it's recent strength as it closed a bit higher than last week.

Low volume often leads to low volatility and that is exactly what we saw this week.

Some of the individual sector ETF's also inched higher but without any real conviction.

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) remain strong as stocks like ADM and AGU moved higher this week.

With so many price levels that could be overhead resistance areas coupled with the low volume up move it make us wonder how long this move will continue.

Absent more volume coming in to move this market decisively higher it seems some form of a retrace is in order.

The Real Estate ETF (IYR) is holding up nicely after breaking out to new highs last week.

The 2 ETF's we mentioned last week (XLE and RTH) that broke their short term DOWN channel lines pushed a bit higher but on lower volume…a "caution" sign for sure.

We will continue to watch these sector ETF's going into next week and several stocks from these sectors are on our Watch List as well.

On the flip side of the coin the Semiconductor stocks took a hit on Friday and pushed the sector ETF (SMH) lower despite the overall strength in the market.

Several individual stocks in this sector had chart patterns that setup some nice risk/reward ratio's if you elected to trade on the SHORT side.

CREE and CRUS turned out to be nice STS trades as they all pushed down towards their recent lows and SNDK started its next move DOWN on Friday.

All in all we find ourselves (yet again) at a pivotal area in the overall market.

There are several stocks (DE, AKAM, MOS, EQIX) that look great for LONG trades in the near future *IF* buyers step up in force to move push them through their overhead resistance levels.

We could make the same argument for the weak stocks which look like they are setting up to move lower very soon.

It is still a choppy market and trend traders are pulling their hair out for sure!

If your strategy has a longer term holding period it may be prudent to sit on the sidelines until this market makes up its mind.

Another option is to shorten your time frame (like our STS Strategies) which means tighter stops and smaller profit targets.

Trade smart and protect your capital and until next week….Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: ETF Swing Trading, RIG, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog | 1 Comment »