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Swing Trading Week in Review – August 27, 2010

Saturday, August 28th, 2010

Buyers at the 10,000 level in the DJIA!

As the market drifted lower early in the week we saw a lack of follow through to the DOWN side as buyers stepped to hold the DJIA near 10,000.

In last week's BLOG POST we said that we were seeing some signs of the market holding up and questioning the strength of the recent move lower.

Although the Nasdaq did finally confirm it's lower low the move down consisted of a GAP lower and more sideways trading rather than a nice orderly sell off.

The good news for us was that even though we saw sideways trading in the overall market some of the weak stocks we had positions in continued to move lower.

The is one of the benefits of identifying the weakest sectors and stocks when the market is showing signs of losing strength.

SLB, NBR and BHI all ended up being nice trades that drifted lower until they began to retrace on Friday.

We also posted about the GOLD sector last week.

The GOLD MINERS have been strong and the stocks we listed in last weeks post all had a very nice UP move this week!

EGO, ABX, NEM, AEM and of course GDX (Gold Miners ETF) offered some nice chart patterns to trade.

Looking forward to next week we see a few interesting chart patterns in some of the other sector ETF's.

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) continue to outperform the market.

They could be ready for their next move UP after this recent pullback.

Stocks to watch are POT, ADM, DE, MOS, MON, AGU and CF.

The Semiconductor's (SMH) remain weak and have started to retrace off of the previous year low.

Here is the WEEKLY chart for a better view…

The troublesome Financial ETF's (XLF and IYF) also moved down back down to the lows of the year.

Here is the WEEKLY chart of the XLF…

Do these weak sectors bounce off the lows and rally or simply put in a retrace before the move to NEW LOWS?

Well we are now trading back below the 50 Day SMA in the DJIA, S&P and the Nasdaq.

Although this is surely a sign of weakness we know how indecisive the market has been lately.

Do we get a nice retrace back up to the 50 Day SMA next week or do we continue the SELL OFF and head down towards the July lows?

No one knows for sure but as always have a plan in place for either outcome.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: 50 Day SMA, DIA, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Price Action, Swing Trading Strategies, Swing Trading Volume
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Technical Analysis | 2 Comments »

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 20, 2010

Sunday, August 22nd, 2010

After the retrace back to the 50 Day SMA last week we saw the DJIA put in a bit of "bounce" to start out this week of trading.

After a nice GAP UP on Tuesday we saw the market stall on Wednesday as it failed to trade above Tuesday's HIGH.

Sellers jumped back into the market on Thursday and pushed the market lower to close the week in negative territory.

In last week's BLOG POST we posted about how we saw the market "transition" last Tuesday and Wednesday.

The type of price action transition we noticed had us looking for some SHORT Swing Trading setups coming into the start of this week.

As the market "bounced" to start the week we patiently waited for the WEAK stocks and ETF's to trigger a SHORT entry.

After posting about the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" chart pattenr in the Financial ETF (XLF) we followed up last week with a nice trade in the Inverse Financial ETF (FAZ).

This week FAZ setup yet another LONG trade entry as the weak Financial sector headed lower again.

Another sector ETF that gave us a clue to look for SHORT trades was the Energy ETF (XLE).

After putting in a nice up move on Tuesday we watching as XLE reversed it's upward move and head straight down on Wednesday on INCREASED VOLUME.

This created a confirmed "lower high" a put our new down channel in place.

This move in the ETF had us looking through the charts of individual stocks in this sector for possible SHORT trade setups Wednesday afternoon.

APC, SLB and CVX all had nice chart patterns with clearly defined risk levels in place.

This is a good example of how to use sector ETF's to look for Swing Trading opportunities in stocks that a closely related or correlated to that sector.

The Oil Services ETF (OIH) had a nearly identical chart pattern.

DO, BHI and NBR we good candidates in this sector.

On the flip side of the coin we saw the GOLD and GOLD MINERS ETF's have a nice week to the UP side as their recent relative strength continues.

Stocks to watch in this sector going forward are AU, EGO, AEM, NEM, ABX, GG, and GG.

Also keep an eye on the Retail ETF (RTH) in the days to come.

We have noticed some strong BUYING in the some of the retail names this week.

This could be a sign of things to come but as always we need confirmation to declare the down trend has come to an end.

As we go into next week there are a few things that we have noticed that have us wondering whether or not this most recent down move has any legs.

We still have a TON of stocks that are holding up (showing relative strength) despite the selling we have witnessed the last two days of this week.

AKAM, MELI, INFA, MO, SNPS, and VRSN to name a few.

Although the DJIA and S&P have technically put in a "lower high" AND "lower low" the Nasdaq has only put in a "lower high" and has yet to confirm a "lower low".

No one knows for sure what we will do come Monday morning so as always be prepared for anything so that you can take the appropriate action when the market tells you it's true intentions.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

P.S

Would like to learn more about how we locate our short term trades in stocks and ETF's?

If so feel free join us Friday, August 27th for our "Finding Swing Trading Opportunities in Today's Market" webinar.

You can register for this absolutely FREE Swing Trading webinar HERE.

Tags: APC, DIA, ETF Swing Trading, Financial ETF, Retail ETF, SHORT SWING TRADING, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Volume, XLE, XLF
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Charts | No Comments »

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 13, 2010

Sunday, August 15th, 2010

After last week's low volatility sideways price action we saw the market transition this week putting the short term UP trend in jeopardy.

This "transition", which began on Tuesday, also came with increasing volume.

To say this market has been a little Schizophrenic would be an understatement.

In the past few months it seems that every time the market seems to be heading one way it stops on a dime and goes the other.

We have posted about the frustration that some short term traders are feeling in this trading environment.

One of the many skills you need to master as a short term trader is the ability to identify how and when the market (and stocks) transition from one mode to another.

A good example of this was the type of trading we saw on Tuesday of this week.

If you didn't put all the pieces of the puzzle together in time you could have easily missed "Transition Tuesday".

Monday we saw the markets GAP UP and follow through slightly to the UP side on LOW VOLUME.

We would like to see HIGHER VOLUME as the market moves higher in a short term UP trend and we did not (as of yet) get that.

Tuesday"s FED DAY showing the typical choppy trading after the GAP DOWN until the announcement came in the early afternoon sending the market a bit higher.

The GAP DOWN and rally into the close had some traders thinking that this type trading was a positive sign of things to come.

We on the other hand saw it as a chance for the "big boys" to get SHORT.

Our suspicion was confirmed when the market GAPPED DOWN again on Wednesday.

By the close on Wednesday we saw the market sell off as volume increased yet again.

We saw some sector ETF's that were trying to break to the upside FAIL TO BREAKOUT and actually move lower on increasing volume.

XLE, OIH, USO, and SLX all where showing signs of a possible move up but ultimately ended up selling off and giving back most of the gains from the past week and a half.

The Financial ETF (XLF) inverted "head and shoulders" pattern that we posted about also FAILED TO BREAKOUT to the upside and sold off with the rest of the market.

This was a very good example of a FAILURE and a transition from (short term) bullish to bearish.

These "failed" chart patterns often times lead to very profitable trades if you can identify the "transition" fast enough.

Once we noticed the "failure" we entered into a LONG position in the INVERSE FINANCIAL ETF (FAZ) for a nice STS trade.

In our next "Swing Trading Weekly Wrap Up" webinar this upcoming Friday night we will go over this and some of the other trades we made last week.

Feel free to join us!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: DIA, ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Technical Analysis | 1 Comment »

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 6, 2010

Saturday, August 7th, 2010

The week of going nowhere!

After a decent GAP UP Monday morning the market followed through with…nothing really.

Low volatility and volume usually lead to "sideways" type price action and that is exactly what we saw this week.

The 2 blue arrows above indicate the "double top" area that we posted in last week's BLOG.

Monday morning's GAP UP brought us up above this level and ended up trading above it for almost the entire week.

Friday we saw the market GAP DOWN and then rally a bit only to ROLL OVER to the DOWN SIDE prior to an afternoon reversal which brought the market back over the "double top" area.

Here is a look at the 15 minute chart so you can we what we mean.

Monday through Thursday you can see the "sideways" price action we encountered.

Although the INTRADAY price action was great this type lack of follow thorugh can be very frustrating for Swing Traders.

Most (not all) of our positions did exactly as the market did this week…went almost nowhere.

Although the GAP UP on Monday and the Friday afternoon reversal indicate that there are buyers at this level in the market it is still a sign of overall indecision (so far) to move this market higher or lower.

There are still a lot of stocks that have great chart patterns that my be setting up for some nice trades in the week ahead.

CHKP, NTAP , ALK, BAX and CAL are a few that we will be watching.

The Steel Sector has also been very strong as of late so we will continue to watch SLX, X, CLF, AKS, and STLD.

With the decent rally (and lack of DOWNSIDE follow through) in the GOLD MINERS this week we will watch to see how these stocks shape up during next weeks trading.

A exception to the LOW VOLATILITY theme of this BLOG post this week was the Education Stocks.

APOL, DV, COCO and CECO all had nice chart patterns that setup some great SHORT trades on Tuesday.

Take a look at these charts and you will see great example of the PRICE and VOLUME relationship.

Also as a reminder our next PVT (Price, Volume and Trend Lines) Trading Tactics class will be held next Saturday August 14th.

If learning how to use Price Action and analyze Volume to make trading decisions in stocks and/or ETF's is of interest to you then be sure not to miss it!

Our new Swing Trading BOOTCAMP, Swing Trading Strategy Class, and FREE webinar schedules will be coming out this week so we hope to see you at one (or all) of the upcoming events.

Until next week…Good trading to YOU!

Tags: 50 Day SMA, ABX, AKS, ALK, APOL, BAX, CECO, CLF, COCO, DIA, DV, ETF, ETF Swing Trading, NTAP, SLX, STLD, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, Swing Trading Strategies, Swing Trading Volume, Trend Lines, X
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Intraday Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Charts, Technical Analysis | 4 Comments »