Archive for the ‘Technical Analysis’ Category

Swing Trading Week in Review – July 9, 2010

Sunday, July 11th, 2010

Swing Trading Blog Post –

This week the markets put in a pretty decent "pullback" off of the recent lows.

After such an extended and fast down move during the last 2 weeks this type of trading action should have been no surprise.

Here is how the chart of the DJIA looks after Friday's close.

DJIA

Taking everything into account this week was NOT the week to ENTER into any NEW short positions.

As a matter of fact if you swing trade using price action and volume then the charts were telling you this.

After 2 weeks of basically straight down trading we were looking for signs that the market was losing steam.

After being closed on Monday the markets gapped up Tuesday morning.

This was the first sign for us that the market MAY be starting to retrace off of its recent low.

The market did close "weak" on Tuesday BUT price held above the low of Friday AND the volume was light.

This was a good sign to us that the short term sentiment could be changing.

By seeing this type of price and volume action on the chart you had a few options depending on your trading style.

If you only trade one side of the market and you were already SHORT then you could have tightened up your trailing stops.

If you are a bit more advanced then you could use a "STOP and REVERSE" type trading strategy by getting out of your SHORT positions and entered into LONG positions (in the same stocks or ETF's) to trade the "bounce" or "pullback".

Although trading both sides of the market can be very profitable it does take a complete understanding of how price and volume work together in the context of trends.

You also should understand that by trading both sides of the market that often times you are taking trades against the main trend.

Lets take a look at the chart of the Energy Sector ETF (XLE) to show you what I mean…

XLE Swing Trading ETF

After trading down for 9 days straight we are looking for signs that the current down move may be coming to an end.

Last Friday you can see how XLE creates an "inside bar" on low volume.

This type of "stalling" price action can often times be the first clue in identifying sentiment changes.

As the market gapped up on Tuesday XLE gapped up above the high of both Thursday and Friday.

After such an extended move down (9 days) this type of chart pattern is something you would expect to see at the start of a retrace.

We need to understand though that this retrace is in a currently DOWN TRENDING market.

If you enter into a LONG position here you will be doing so AGAINST THE MAIN TREND.

Knowing that you will be be trading against the trend we strongly recommend that you make sure that you use a tight stop and a smaller profit target.

We use a 2:1 profit target for most of our SST (Short Term Swing Trades) including this one.

That being said our entry signal was on the open on Tuesday at $50.24.

XLE Swing Trade

Our initial STOP was placed just below the low of the "inside bar" at $48.94.

That gives use a risk of $1.30/share (50.24 – 48.94 = 1.30).

We then set our PROFIT TARGET $2.60 ($1.30 x 2 = $2.60) above our entry price at $52.84.

With our initial STOP and PROFIT TARGET in place we now move into managing our trade by watching price and volume.

Wednesday price moves HIGHER on INCREASED VOLUME…so far so good!

Thursday price moves higher yet again BUT volume decreases as does the intraday range.

We hold since price moves higher but the CAUTION light is flashing.

Friday price moves higher again BUT volume drops again and so does the range.

XLE trades as high as $52.70 (.14 from out PROFIT TARGET) and we end up exiting our position near the close at $52.64.

XLE Swing Trade

As of the close on Friday XLE looks to be putting in a classic retrace from its recent low.

Price is moving higher as volume and range is decreasing.

No one knows what Monday's market will do and XLE could continue to move higher.

By trading just .14 away from our profit target this was "good enough" for us and we will take our profits and run.

Take a look some of the stocks and ETF's on your list and see if you can spot how price and volume gave you a heads to the short term sentiment change we saw last week.

And as always if you have any question please feel free to post them below.

Until next week…Good Trading To YOU!

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Swing Trading Week in Review – July 2, 2010

Saturday, July 3rd, 2010

In last weeks Swing Trading BLOG post we said that this would be a pivotal week in the market.

Well after the dust settled this week it was VERY CLEAR that the BEARS are in charge!

After Monday's "inside day" price action and volume spoke LOUD and CLEAR on Tuesday as the market gapped down and continued to sell off until the week came to close on Friday.

DJIA

The last few weeks have been tough for Swing Traders and this week was no exception.

This week was tough for Swing Traders for a few reasons:

Starting in early June we had nine days where we basically went straight up and now we have had about ten days of trading where the market has gone straight down!

If you are "pullback" trader like we are there has not been many chances over the past month or so for you to implement your trading strategy.

If you did  not have a plan in place and were NOT prepared for Tuesday then you may have "missed the boat" when the market gapped down and sold off for the rest of the week.

This has been a "fast market" and by that we mean that there ARE chart patterns and pullbacks to trade BUT these pullbacks are shallow, maybe a day or so, and then they continue to move.

This type of price action creates "fast" trend channels and for most traders these are much more difficult to identify and trade.

Lets take a look at some of the stocks we have been following lately to show you what we mean.

Last week we walked you thorough our entry into Nemont Mining (NEM) on a LONG Swing Trade.

This is the chart from last week.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

As we told you we were able to exit some of our position at $61.67 during last Friday's afternoon rally and we were holding on to the rest with a trailing stop.

Here is how the chart looks at the end of this week.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

NEM broke out to NEW HIGHS last week so we were expecting some type of follow through to the UP side this week.

Monday NEM stalled and was followed by two days (Tuesday and Wednesday) of slightly UP price movement combined with decreasing volume.

This combination should be a BIG FLASHING YELLOW LIGHT to you just as it is for us.

Our trailing stop was hit at $60.75 on Thursday as NEM traded down through the low of the previous day.

We have marked both of our exits (Exit 1 and Exit 2) on the chart above.

Still a profitable trade but not what we expect from a stock breaking out to new highs.

At pivotal times in the market we often have a few LONG positions and a few SHORT positions and more often than not we get stopped out of the trades that end up being on the wrong side of the market.

One of our losing trades (we had a few) this week was in Sandisk (SNDK).

Here is the chart of SNDK to give you the context…strong stock making higher highs and higher lows.

SNDK - Long Swing Trade

During this weeks trading action MONDAY was the make it or break it day in our opinion.

We have been following the recent strength in SNDK so after last weeks pullback we were ready to get LONG again on the first sign of strength.

Monday we got what we were looking for as SNDK traded through Fridays high just as the market also attempted to trade higher.

Our entry was triggered at $47 and our initial stop was set at $44.92 for a $2.08/share risk.

When the market did not follow through on Monday SNDK reversed midday and ended right at the low of the day.

One of the hardest situations that Swing Traders face is what to do when you have a BIG opening gap (up or down) in the market.

Tuesday morning that is exactly what the market did as it opened up the day down significantly from Mondays close.

Like most stocks SNDK was no exception and gapped down with market and opened at $44.76 which was BELOW our initial stop.

Our exit strategy when this happens is dependent on the context of the overall picture that the market, sector and individual stock is painting.

in this specific example the strategy calls for an exit on the open for a number of reasons.

Our actual exit price was $44.74 so we actually lost  $2.26/shareMORE than initially planned.

Here is a zoomed in version so you can see the details a bit better.

SNDK - Long Swing Trade

This losing trade in SNDK shows you why having a position sizing and money management strategy in place is so important.

Due to the frequent overnight gaps we face as swing traders we recommend that you have a "buffer" built in to your position sizing strategy to allow for a "worst case" scenario.

When strong stocks like ALK, NTAP, SNDK and MELI start to break down at pivotal times that usually means our SHORT positions (weak stocks or ETF's) are continuing to sell off.

The "weak" Retail (RTH) ETF continued its sell off this week but you almost had to be in this position coming into the week.

The other noticeably weak sector, the Homebuilders (XHB), offered you yet another opportunity to get SHORT as it broke to NEW LOWS on Tuesday's "gap and go".

Other SHORT trades that worked out nicely were LPNT, ERTS, X, and MGM.

I mentioned above about this being a "fast" market and here are a few example of stocks with "fast channels" to demonstrate my point.

PCAR - Fast Trend Channel SNPS - Fast Trend Channel LRCX - Fast Price Channel

In all of the charts above you can see that after pulling back from their recent highs all of them attempt to move higher on Monday.

They all fail to move higher the next day essentially creating a one day UP move before continuing to sell off.

If they all would have moved higher for another day or so the chart pattern would have painted a more clear picture for those traders not yet skilled at identifying this type of "fast" trend change.

Probably the best example of just how 'fast" this market has been is to look at the overall market ETF's for the DJIA (DIA) and the S&P 500 (SPY).

DIA - Swing Tading ETF SPY - Swing Trading ETF

You can see how the market sold off everyday last week as it put in its first pullback after the 9 day up move.

Monday you can see how price "stalls" and creates an inside bar.

Tuesday the market "gaps down" and sells off for the rest of the week not giving swing traders much of a pullback to SHORT.

In order to capitalize on this type of "fast" price action you need to learn how trends transition and use price action and volume as your leading indicators.

These are the exact strategies we teach in our PVT Trading Tactics class so if you would like to learn more you can check it out HERE.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

 

 

 

Swing Trading Week in Review – June 25, 2010

Friday, June 25th, 2010

Swing Trading Blog Post-

Well after the markets last "mini" rally off of the February lows that market finally put in long awaited and much anticipated pullback this week.

DIA - Diamonds ETF

The two "weak" sectors, Retail (RTH) and the Homebuilders (XHB), we highlighted in last weeks BLOG POST (and in last Friday nights webinar) sold off nicely and actually made NEW LOWS as the market pulled back this week.

RTH - Retail ETF XHB - Homebuilders ETF

Coming into this week there were several SHORT Swing Trade setups in some of the stocks the these "weak" sectors.

WSM, WMT, JCG, ANF and many others were on our SHORT Watch list this week and they all moved nicely to the down side.

The "strong" stocks we talked about last week (AKAM, ALK, NTAP) all pulled back with the overall market this week.

The strongest sector we discussed at the webinar last Friday was GOLD and the GOLD MINERS.

After a nice run up last week you saw most of the stocks and ETF's in this sector put in a short retrace from Monday through Wednesday this week.

GDX - Gold Miners ETF

On Thursday we got our entry signal for several stocks but lets take a look at Newmont Mining (NEM) since this stock seemed to be the leader of the pack in the last UP move.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

NEM BROKE OUT to new multi-year highs last week so were "stalking" this stock waiting for another opportunity to GET LONG after a decent pullback.

Here is how the chart looked last Friday.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

After this nice strong UP move through the previous high (black line) we waited for the first pullback.

That pullback started on Monday and we watched price firm up a bit by the close on Wednesday as it traded around the area of the previous high.

We were watching this previous "resistance" level to now become the new "support" level.

NEW - Long Swing Trade

We still need price action to confirm that this area would hold as "support" and we received this confirmation on Thursday morning.

Right out of the gate on Thursday NEM traded through the high of the previous day ($59.43) giving us an entry signal at $59.45.

NEM moved up for most of the morning only to close the day well below the open.

Another intraday reversal!

Here is how the chart of NEM looked by the close of the trading day on Thursday.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

Price and volume were both increasing but the end of day reversal made it a little tougher for us to determine if the volume was bullish or bearish.

The next day we needed to see the signs that NEM was going to move higher.

Today (Friday) we got exactly what we needed from NEM.

Price moved higher on increasing volume throughout the day.

NEM - Long Swing Trade

Early this afternoon we were able to piece out of some of our position in NEM at the $61.67 level.

We are trailing our stop in NEM based on our BREAKOUT strategy rules and will exit the rest of our position just as our plan and this strategy dictates.

NEM is breaking out to NEW HIGHS once again and the sector as a whole is showing some tremendous strength so we are hoping to see some nice follow through next week.

Speaking of next week it seems that we are really at a pivotal point in the overall market.

We have taken out the last "swing high' and rallied up to (but still under) the 50 day SMA.

We are now in the process of pulling back from the high of the recent up move.

Another run up towards the 50 day SMA wouldn't surprise us at all.

On the flip side though there are still a lot of "weak" looking chart patterns and a some stocks and sectors making NEW LOWS.

So what is a SHORT TERM TRADER to do?

Be prepared for anything!

You have heard that somewhere before right? (this BLOG over and over and over)

As always we will have a list of STRONG and WEAK stocks and sectors on our Watch list  for Monday.

That way no matter what the market decides to do we can take the appropriate action and get ourselves on the right side of the market.

Until next week…GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

P.S. Feel free to join us Friday July 2nd at 6pm for our next "Weekly Wrap Up" webinar.

You can click HERE to register!

Swing Trading Chart Patterns – Double Top

Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010

Swing Trading Blog Post – "Double Top" Chart Pattern

Last week, in the midst of the 9 day "mini" rally, we notified our Swing Trading Newsletter subscribers of several stocks and ETF's that were forming interesting chart patterns.

As the market became short term "over bought" we noticed LRCX approaching at level that it reached in late April.

Here you can see the chart that we posted to our subscribers (and the hint we gave on Twitter) last Thursday.

LRCX - Swing Trading Chart Pattern

Thursday was the first day we noticed LRCX "stall" as price action created an "inside day" on decreased volume.

This was just a heads up to our subscribers that a "double top" MAY be forming but to wait for CONFIRMATION before entering into a SHORT position (if their trading strategy called for shorting in this context).

On the chart below you can see that on Friday (the day after our alert) price creates another "inside day" this time on increasing volume.

This type of "stalling" price action is something we would expect near an overhead resistance level but just because price "stalls" it is NOT a signal for us to take action (get LONG or SHORT) just yet.

LRCX - Swing Trading Chart Pattern

When the market GAPPED UP big time on Monday you will notice that LRCX did NOT gap up nearly as much.

LRCX stayed within the prior days range even though the market (and several other sectors) gapped up way above the prior days HIGH.

The market quickly rolled over on Monday and by the end of the day LRCX triggered our SHORT entry (BLUE ARROW) as it traded down through Fridays LOW ($41.89), confirming the "double top" pattern.

Just a reminder that since this "counter trend" strategy we consider this an advanced swing trading strategy that should only be taken by experienced swing traders.

That being said we typically use the HIGH on our ENTRY DAY as our initial stop level for this strategy.

Our entry price for the SHORT trade was .02 below Friday's low…$41.87.

The HIGH of our entry day price bar was actually exactly $1 above at $42.87 so we set our actual stop .02 above that at $42.89 giving us an initial risk of $1.02/share.

Using our standard PROFIT TARGET of 2:1 for this type of trade we set our target at $39.85 ($41.87 – $2.02).

Below you can see how the trade turned out.

LRCX - Swing Trading Chart Patterns

Although we like to see confirming VOLUME action when we enter into a trade we always put PRICE ACTION first.

Often times we will see VOLUME follow through the next day (after entry) just as it did here on Tuesday.

This morning LRCX traded down and hit our PROFIT TARGET ($39.85) before turning around and closing the day basically "mid-bar".

Price could continue LOWER from here but this type of strategy ("counter trend") calls for "precise" entries which allow for smaller profit targets.

Being alert to the potential "double top" that was forming we were able into a profitable short term swing trade once we received confirmation that the pattern was in place.

 

 

 

 

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