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Swing Trading Update 07.05.19

Thursday, July 11th, 2019

Swing Trading Blog Update 07.05.19

ETF $SPY - Swing Trading Blog

Even though it was a holiday shortened trading week we saw good continuation in the overall market this week.

The S&P traded to new all time highs on decent (but declining) volume.

Swing Trading Blog - ETF $DIA

The DJIA followed suite on a similar volume pattern.

SECTOR WATCH

Swing Trading ETF's - $RTH $KBESwing Trading ETF's - $RTH $KBE

With the overall market being so strong it's natural to see a bunch of strong sectors.

We have been highlighting a few on the newsletter so let's stick to those for now.

After a trading to a new high and retrace $RTH is still pushing higher.

Last week we mentioned the bank ETF's so this week we watched $KBEpull back after breaking out of consolidation. After an inside day on Wednesday it started to move higher again on Friday.

STOCKS 

Swing Trading Stocks $MCD

Swing Trading Stocks Blog

Again sticking with a few of the stocks that we have mentioned in previous newsletters we watched as both $MCD and $SBUX made new highs this week.

Also,  previously mentioned stocks $V, $MA, $TGT, $WMT, $DIS are all holding up nicely.

SUMMARY

The continuation we were looking for arrived.

New all-time highs in the market.

It's easy to be LONG here and make a case to stay that way until the market tells us otherwise. 

We have had a great move over the last few weeks and a move that brought us into new territory to end the week.

Is the market a bit extended here?

Probably. 

Will it pull back, giving us a chance to look for setups for the next move up?

Who knows.

We won't be chasing stocks UP at this point that's for sure.

Are you ready for whatever happens next?

Until next week…GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

 

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Swing Trading Update 06.07.19

Tuesday, June 11th, 2019

Swing Trading Update

Well, that was an interesting week, wasn't it?

Basically, a FLAT trading day on Monday followed by 4 straight SOLID UP DAYS.

This weeks trading left a lot of traders frustrated…but should it have?

S&P 500 ($SPY)

Swing Trading $SPY

We took off like a rocket on Tuesday after trading down to a key level on Monday. 

This weeks move brought us right back up to the 50-day MA although it was on decreasing volume.

DJIA ($DIA)

Swing Trading $DIA

Same story here in the DJIA.

FLAT Monday and 4 days up right back to the 50-day MA.

$SBUX

Swing Trading $SBUX

There were some strong stocks like $SBUX on the move to the UPSIDE this week after showing relative strength to the overall market.

Other strong stocks bucking the trend included $V, $LLL, $WMT, $DIS, $CB and $MA to name a few.

SUMMARY

So should this week have frustrated so many traders?

Well, I guess that depends on your strategy.

If you were SHORT and you are a LONGER TERM SWING TRADER then the big retrace was probably an unwelcome one.

If you were SHORT and you are a SHORTER TERM SWING TRADER then you may have covered your SHORT positions (for a profit) during the last move down. Or maybe your TRAILING STOP got hit on the retrace. Not so bad.

If you were looking to get LONG and you were buying STRONG STOCKS (like $SBUX etc.) expecting a retrace in the market then you may have been ok.

If you were looking to get LONG and you were buying OVERSOLDstocks/ETF's for a "bounce" you were probably ok also.

So, in our eyes, there weren't too many reasons to be frustrated with this weeks trading.

The frustration just depends on your perspective (and strategy) for trading this week. 

What happens from here?

Time will tell but as always don't try to outguess the market.

Let your charts tell the story and stick to your strategy…if it's a sound one.

Until next week…GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

 

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Swing Trading Update 05.31.19

Monday, June 3rd, 2019

Here is your Swing Trading update for the trading week ending 05.31.19.

After the holiday we saw a nice continuation to the DOWNSIDE in the market this week. 

With lots of people expecting some sort of bounce from an OVERSOLD position the charts always tell the true story…if you know how to read them.

S&P 500 ($SPY)

Swing Trading Strategies

The S&P got rocked again this week (along with just about everything else.

Take a look at the chart. After pushing lower mid-week last week we saw 2 STALLbars near the LOW END of the trading range. When the market opened up on TUESDAY we saw the continued push LOWER on VOLUME, breaking down from the 2 STALL bars.

DJIA ($DIA)

Swing Trading Strategies

More of the same from the DJIA. Since the end of APRIL we are down 1800 points or so. Not good for the LONG SIDE especially since we are now under the 200-day MA.

GOLD ($GLD)

Swing Trading GOLD ETF's

The sector to watch this week was GOLD. Considering the overall market conditions, the setup after the double bottom and pullback after 3 days above the 50-day MA setup a nice chance to get LONG (at 2 spots). 

SUMMARY

With ALL THREE INDICES (S&P, DJIA, NAZ) now trading below their 200-day MA's I would say that the writing on the wall is clear.

The failure to push to NEW HIGHS in early MAY was quickly followed by HEAVY SELLING which broke the UPTREND. 

After a small bounce and stall we saw continuation to the downside this week. 

And while there are still some strong stocks in the market we will wait to see if all of this selling pressure catches up to them as well.

I wouldn't chase stocks/ETF's down at this point but the next STALL or PULLBACKshould tells us how the story continues.

Until next week…GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

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Swing Trading Update – The Retrace – 1.29.16

Sunday, January 31st, 2016

Well for Swing Traders this was the week of the "retrace". Monday we saw the markets drift lower all day but the volume didnt really kick in. Swing Trading Strategies - 1.29.16

Tuesday and Wednesday gave traders a big clue as we watched the market basically fight to find a direction.

On Tuesday the clue was an "up" day on increased volume compared to Mondays "down" day on light volume.

Wednesday we had an "outside" day on even bigger volume with a close on the low end of the trading range for the day.

Thursdays light volume "inside" day let you know that the market was taking a "pause" and would more than likely (nothing is for certain) continue is retrace to the upside soon.

Friday we watched as the market did just that. The $SPY had some nice volume to the upside while the $DIAs volume lagged a bit.

Both charts however showed a good combination of price and volume to at least let you know what side of the market (the long side) was the right side to be on.

As we look through the charts of the sector ETFs we see a few good trade setups assuming of course that you are a counter trend trader.

A long trade in $XLE set up nicely as it did in $IYF and even $XLK for those brave traders.

A note on the GOLD ETF's here…

$GOLD ripped to the highs this week with $GDX and $NUGT looking better as well. $ABX is shaping up and maybe taking a look at Silver $SLX would be wise.

As we look forward to trading tomorrow just remember that we are trading under the 50 day SMA AND that we are in a down channel.

With that being said there is a lot of white space on the charts to the upside if the buyers want to push us back a little closer that 50 day "trendline".

If you are a short term swing trader then look to adjust your risk/reward on these counter trend trades so that the math still works for you.

I personally dont think the we are anywhere near done on the short side but time will tell. In the meantime we will continue listen to what the market tells us and trade appropriately.

We hope you do the same. Until next week…Good trading to YOU!

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