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Swing Trading Week in Review – October 1, 2010

Sunday, October 3rd, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

Well after the long awaited BREAKOUT we saw last week the market followed up with…a nice long week of NOTHING!

Coming into this week there was a lot of optimism based on the recent bullish action we have seen in the overall market.

Traders (including us) were expecting at least a little follow through this week but instead were met with yet another frustrating week of consolidating price action.

Most of the stocks and ETF's did the exact same thing as the overall market.

A few were up slightly as the week came to an end but nothing to write home about.

There were a few exceptions as we saw the Energy and Oil Services ETF's have nice continuation moves this week.

In last weeks BLOG post we showed you our entry into XLE and the pullback that followed.

This week XLE continued its UP move despite the "stall" in the overall market.

As you would expect the Oil Services ETF (OIH) had a strong week.

RIG and DO were two stocks in this sector the gave us LONG trade signals this week.

GOLD and the GOLD MINERS (GDX) came back to life this week as well and SILVER (SLV) is acting just as bullish.

With last weeks news in the AIRLINE sector we saw the Airline ETF (FAA) trade up to a NEW HIGH for the YEAR.

Technology, Retail, Real Estate, Financial and the Homebuilders all had a lackluster week.

One sector to watch moving forward is going to be Agriculture.

This week we saw big time selling come into some of the stocks in this recently strong sector.

MON, MOS, CF and ADM all sold off this week despite the market holding up above its BREAKOUT level.

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) have now put in their first significant pullback after last months nice run up.

This pullback may be a good time to look to buy some of the stronger names in this sector but the caution light is now flashing as we move forward.

This type of price and volume action is not yet a transition from a "bullish" to "bearish" bias for this sector but it is something to watch for in days/weeks to come.

The overall market is still very strong as almost every major sector ETF is trading above its 50 day SMA.

Last weeks "consolidation" is telling us that the buyers and sellers are playing a big game of tug-of-war at this level.

Obviously anything is possible next week.

A continuation move to the UP side wouldn't surprise us but neither would a retrace back near the 50 day SMA.

The key (as always) is to be prepared with a plan of action for either outcome.

What stocks and/or ETF's will you look to buy if the UP move continues?

What will you do if the market sells off on Monday indicating that the market is pulling back?

Will you SHORT anything or simply sit on the sidelines and wait?

You know what they say..."failing to plan is planning to fail".

Have your plan is place and execute when the time is right!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: 50 Day SMA, DBA, ETF Swing Trading, FAA, GDX, MON, MOO, MOS, OIH, Retail ETF, Sector ETF's, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, Swing Trading Volume, XLE
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, ETF Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Charts, Technical Analysis | 3 Comments »

Swing Trading Week in Review – September 17, 2010

Friday, September 17th, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading Boot Camp

The UPWARD drift continues!

In last week's BLOG POST we mentioned the lack of volume we are seeing and the need for volume to increase to move this market decisively higher.

Well the market did move up this week but as the first line of this post states it was more of a drift than a significant move.

The move this week puts us right back up to the June 21st price levels that we saw just prior to the sell off that took us to NEW LOW'S for the year.

The best chart that illustrates the larger sideways trading channel we are in has to be the chart of the S&P 500 Index.

Here is the chart for the SPY to show how this weeks trading action brings us right to very top of this channel.

The Nasdaq has actually been a bit stronger.

This most recent UP move brings to QQQQ'S above that all important level set on June 21st but after a 12 day up move it seems way overbought in the short term.

As far as sectors go it is pretty much the same story as last week.

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) remain strong with several stocks in this sector pushing higher this week.

DBA actually pushed to a NEW HIGH for the year this week while MOO trades a bit below its yearly high.

In last week's post we mentioned a few stocks to watch in this sector coming into this week.

One of the few trades we made this week was in John Deere & Company (DE) which is one of the biggest holdings in MOO.

After showing so much recent relative strength DE put in a nice tight sideways consolidation pattern last week.

As the market GAPPED UP on Monday DE was up right along with it.

Our original entry target was just above the high set in early August which was $69.47.

When the market rolled over mid morning DE stayed strong as we entered into a position at $69.55.

Our initial STOP LOSS level is set at $67.10 which is just below the recent consolidation area.

This puts our initial risk at $2.45/share.

Our PROFIT TARGET is set at $74.45 which is twice our initial risk per share ($2.45 x 2= $4.90 + $69.55).

After 3 more days of consolidation DE made a HIGH VOLUME UP MOVE today and finally pushed our position nicely to the UPSIDE.

The trade is still open so we will manage our position accordingly and let you know how it turns out.

As far as the other sector's in the market go we cautioned you last week about the LOW VOLUME moves in XLE and RTH.

XLE actually put in a retrace this week despite the strength in the overall market.

RTH on the other hand GAPPED UP nicely with the market on Monday and then followed WITH VOLUME on Tuesday.

A nice move UP since breaking the DOWN TREND channel line.

With the extreme upward angle of this last move and possible overhead resistance in the $94-$96 area RTH is short term overbought just like the overall market.

Take caution going into next week but continue to watch this sector moving forward once the market has pulled back a bit.

The Real Estate ETF (IYR) is holding up nicely but consolidated this entire week.

Breakout or pullback?

Keep this one on your radar as well in the coming days.

The notable laggard (so far) is still the Semiconductor sector ETF (SMH).

The week's upward drift still leaves this weak ETF trading below its 50 day SMA while almost every other sector is trading back above theirs.

CREE, CRUS, SNDK (although it stopped us out last week) and a few other names in this sector still have very weak charts.

This could all change in the near future especially if the overall market continues to strengthen.

The big picture tells us that the overall action in the market remains sideways.

The recent strength does look favorable for a continued UP move in the market after we digest some of these recent gains.

BUT…

We have seen this a few times before on both the LONG and SHORT side of the market.

Don't get to comfortable with this market just yet by only staying focused on one way trades.

Be prepared for anything (have LONG and SHORT ideas) that way whatever the market decides to do from here you can take the appropriate action.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: 50 Day SMA, DE, DIA, ETF Swing Trading, IYR, Retail ETF, RTH, SHORT SWING TRADING, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, Swing Trading Strategies, XLE
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Charts, Technical Analysis | 1 Comment »

Swing Trading Week in Review – September 3, 2010

Sunday, September 5th, 2010

Swing Trading Blog Post-

What a difference a week makes.

In last week's BLOG post we told that their were buyers at the 10,000 level in the DJIA.

We saw the buyers step in and hold the market up last week and again on Monday and Tuesday of this week.

Wednesday is when the real fun started.

After a big GAP UP Wednesday morning we saw the market rally the rest of the day to finish just off the high of the day.

Thursday brought more of the same and then the GAP UP, sell off and intraday reversal during Friday's session is a clear sign that buyers were in control.

The market continues it's erratic behavior and if you have trading for any amount of time you know that the month of September is likely to bring more of the same.

Last week we posted about the strength in the Agriculture related ETF's…DBA and MOO.

We gave you the "head's up" to watch this sector as it seemed ready for it's next move to the UP side.

Both ETF's followed through nicely this week as the market pushed higher to end the week.

Several of the other "strong" ETF's rallied to new multi month highs this week.

The Real Estate (IYR) and Utilities (XLU) are on this list as well as a few International ETF's like THD and BZF.

We also saw the Energy (XLE) and Retail (RTH) ETF's break their short term down trend lines.

The weak sector's we identified last week…the Semiconductor's and FInancial's…put in a decent bounce off of their recent low's.

We wondered last week if these sector ETF's were going to "bounce" back to their 50 Day SMA's or if they were ready to push to NEW LOW'S.

We got our answer although the "bounce" in the semiconductor's was really less than impressive.

The last 3 trading sessions have taken the market and several stocks to near short term "over bought" levels.

We are not going to chase the market at this point and will simply wait for the next opportunity to initiate some trades.

We will let our current trades play out and manage our positions accordingly.

September is notorious for being a slow, choppy month for trading so be patient and wait for your ideal setups to get into the market.

Until next week...Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: DIA, ETF Swing Trading, Financial ETF, Retail ETF, RTH, SMH, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, XLE, XLF
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Charts, Technical Analysis | No Comments »

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 20, 2010

Sunday, August 22nd, 2010

After the retrace back to the 50 Day SMA last week we saw the DJIA put in a bit of "bounce" to start out this week of trading.

After a nice GAP UP on Tuesday we saw the market stall on Wednesday as it failed to trade above Tuesday's HIGH.

Sellers jumped back into the market on Thursday and pushed the market lower to close the week in negative territory.

In last week's BLOG POST we posted about how we saw the market "transition" last Tuesday and Wednesday.

The type of price action transition we noticed had us looking for some SHORT Swing Trading setups coming into the start of this week.

As the market "bounced" to start the week we patiently waited for the WEAK stocks and ETF's to trigger a SHORT entry.

After posting about the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" chart pattenr in the Financial ETF (XLF) we followed up last week with a nice trade in the Inverse Financial ETF (FAZ).

This week FAZ setup yet another LONG trade entry as the weak Financial sector headed lower again.

Another sector ETF that gave us a clue to look for SHORT trades was the Energy ETF (XLE).

After putting in a nice up move on Tuesday we watching as XLE reversed it's upward move and head straight down on Wednesday on INCREASED VOLUME.

This created a confirmed "lower high" a put our new down channel in place.

This move in the ETF had us looking through the charts of individual stocks in this sector for possible SHORT trade setups Wednesday afternoon.

APC, SLB and CVX all had nice chart patterns with clearly defined risk levels in place.

This is a good example of how to use sector ETF's to look for Swing Trading opportunities in stocks that a closely related or correlated to that sector.

The Oil Services ETF (OIH) had a nearly identical chart pattern.

DO, BHI and NBR we good candidates in this sector.

On the flip side of the coin we saw the GOLD and GOLD MINERS ETF's have a nice week to the UP side as their recent relative strength continues.

Stocks to watch in this sector going forward are AU, EGO, AEM, NEM, ABX, GG, and GG.

Also keep an eye on the Retail ETF (RTH) in the days to come.

We have noticed some strong BUYING in the some of the retail names this week.

This could be a sign of things to come but as always we need confirmation to declare the down trend has come to an end.

As we go into next week there are a few things that we have noticed that have us wondering whether or not this most recent down move has any legs.

We still have a TON of stocks that are holding up (showing relative strength) despite the selling we have witnessed the last two days of this week.

AKAM, MELI, INFA, MO, SNPS, and VRSN to name a few.

Although the DJIA and S&P have technically put in a "lower high" AND "lower low" the Nasdaq has only put in a "lower high" and has yet to confirm a "lower low".

No one knows for sure what we will do come Monday morning so as always be prepared for anything so that you can take the appropriate action when the market tells you it's true intentions.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

P.S

Would like to learn more about how we locate our short term trades in stocks and ETF's?

If so feel free join us Friday, August 27th for our "Finding Swing Trading Opportunities in Today's Market" webinar.

You can register for this absolutely FREE Swing Trading webinar HERE.

Tags: APC, DIA, ETF Swing Trading, Financial ETF, Retail ETF, SHORT SWING TRADING, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Volume, XLE, XLF
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Charts | No Comments »