Archive for October, 2012

Swing Trading Week in Review – October 19, 2012

Sunday, October 21st, 2012

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

And DOOOOOOOWN we go…

This week traders watch the market roll over and finish out the week with DJIA dropping over 200 points.

After a bit of a retrace to start the week the NASDAQ got rocked again!

I'm sure the earning news from Google ($GOOG) didn't help matters at all.

The chart of the NASDAQ is a classic chart pattern that shows the relative weakness we were looking at.

Thursday price action and volume confirmed the next move lower and let us draw our new accelerated trend line.

On the flip side a few sectors actually did quite well this week.

The Homebuilders ($XHB) actually traded to a NEW HIGH this and  the Financials ($XLF) popped nicely early in the week.

The Energy and Oil sectors ($XLE $OIH) broke out of consolidation this week but were also met with a big day of selling on Friday.

The Tech sector (including the Semi's) continued to get whacked this week.

Both $XLK and $SMH traded to new multi month lows on Friday.

Gold ($GLD) and Silver ($SLV) continue to sell off after putting in a telltale "lower high" last week.

The amount of SHORT setups we saw this week were a good indication that the market was turning.

$AAPL was a pretty text book short.

The interesting thing here is that despite the hard sell off we saw this week there are still loads of stocks holding up.

This relative strength keeps us looking at both sides of the market for trade opportunities.

If the Dow and S&P follow the NASDAQs lead we will see how these stocks handle the heat.

Another sell off that brings these two indices below their 50 day SMA's would have us focusing mostly on the SHORT side but until then we will actively look at both sides of the market.

Will the market follow through to the DOWN side of find some support this week?

No one know for sure so be prepared for either option.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – October 12, 2012

Sunday, October 14th, 2012

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

$DIA - Swing Trading ETF

After returning to the recent high last week swing traders watched as the Dow Jones Industrial Average sold off this week.

Right from the opening bell on Monday the sellers came out in a big way.

By weeks end the selling pressure had us looking at one of the worst weeks since the summer.

This did NOT happen without warning though.

Last week we pointed out the some of the recently strong sectors were showing signs of "losing steam".

The Tech sector had stalled causing the tech heavy NASDAQ to stall right along with it.

We said that we would need confirmation to validate a move higher or lower and that the NASADAQ could be a catalyst.

This week we watched the confirmation come almost from the get go on Monday.

The GAP DOWN had us looking to the SHORT SIDE by days end.

This was the price action clue that we were looking for.

The move lower on Tuesday on increased volume was all we needed to know that the next move lower was upon us.

Here is the chart of the QQQ

$QQQ - Swing Trading ETF

The transition from bullish to bearish that we saw this week brings the market back down near the 50 day EMA.

The DJIA and S&P and basically hugging the 50 day while the weaker NASDAQ has now traded below it.

This latest move has people wondering a bigger sell off isnt right around the corner.

There are some sectors still showing strength.

The Financials and Homebuilders are (as of now) holding up.

The Energy and Oil ($XLE $OIH) sectors are trading sideways despite the market pushing lower.

Look for a breakout (or breakdown)in these two sectors in the near future.

One weak sector we mentioned a few weeks ago was the Semiconductors ($SMH).

$SMH - Short Swing Trading

Notice the relative weakness prior to the sell off this week.

A good place to look for SHORTS wouldn't you say?

Gold and Silver ($GLD $SLV) are holding up BUT…

After last weeks down move the market and a few of these sectors are in short term oversold territory.

We could see the buyers step in here very soon to protect their long positions.

The SHORTS may also look to cover and take some profits.

All that being said expect a stall or even a bit of a bounce.

Now that we have seem some weakness in the market it is important to have a complete watch list.

Look through the charts and put together a list of stocks that are weaker than the market.

Put those with the best chart patterns on your SHORT watch list.

Look for stocks that are holding up well doing this recent down move.

Put those with the best patterns on your LONG list.

Once the market lets you know where it is headed next take the appropriate action.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – October 5, 2012

Sunday, October 7th, 2012

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

$DIA - Swing Trading ETF

The rally continues (for the most part).

The market drifted higher this week pushing the DJIA back to high that we hit a few weeks back.

This move brings the DJIA into an area that has some traders looking for a double top pattern to take place.

In last weeks BLOG POST we noted the low volume that accompanied some of the moves we saw.

This week the volume did increase BUT it was not across the board.

We watched as both the DJIA and S&P rose while the technology heavy NASDAQ basically sat this move out.

The sector action was mixed.

The Gold and Silver ETF's ($GLD $GDX $SLV) continue to hover around their highs.

$GLD - Swing Trading ETF

Both Healhcare ($XLV) and Retail ($RTH) broke out to NEW HIGHS.

$XLV - Swing Trading ETF $RTH - Swing Trading ETF

The recently strong Financials ($XLF) and Homebuilders ($XHB) drifted higher as well.

The lagging sectors were Energy and Oil ($XLE $OIH $USO) and the Semiconductors ($SMH) and Tech ($XLK).

This "mixed bag" of results leads us to believe that the market may be losing some steam.

As we move into next week we will need to see confirmation to confirm that though.

If we see the NASDAQ jump on board that could push the overall market higher in a hurry.

If however we see more sectors breaking down or failing to participate then we will start looking to the SHORT side more and more.

As always we will have plan for whatever the market decides to do from here and act accordingly.

We hope you will do the same.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

 

 

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