Posts Tagged ‘XLF’

Swing Trading Week in Review – September 3, 2010

Sunday, September 5th, 2010

Swing Trading Blog Post-

What a difference a week makes.

In last week's BLOG post we told that their were buyers at the 10,000 level in the DJIA.

We saw the buyers step in and hold the market up last week and again on Monday and Tuesday of this week.

Wednesday is when the real fun started.

After a big GAP UP Wednesday morning we saw the market rally the rest of the day to finish just off the high of the day.

Thursday brought more of the same and then the GAP UP, sell off and intraday reversal during Friday's session is a clear sign that buyers were in control.

DIA - Swing Trading DIA

The market continues it's erratic behavior and if you have trading for any amount of time you know that the month of September is likely to bring more of the same.

Last week we posted about the strength in the Agriculture related ETF's…DBA and MOO.

We gave you the "head's up" to watch this sector as it seemed ready for it's next move to the UP side.

Both ETF's followed through nicely this week as the market pushed higher to end the week.

DBA - Swing Trading ETF MOO - ETF Swing Trading

Several of the other "strong" ETF's rallied to new multi month highs this week.

The Real Estate (IYR) and Utilities (XLU) are on this list as well as a few International ETF's like THD and BZF.

IYR - Swing Trading ETF

We also saw the Energy (XLE) and Retail (RTH) ETF's break their short term down trend lines.

XLE - Swing Trading ETF RTH - Swing Trading ETF

The weak sector's we identified last week…the Semiconductor's and FInancial's…put in a decent bounce off of their recent low's.

We wondered last week if these sector ETF's were going to "bounce" back to their 50 Day SMA's or if they were ready to push to NEW LOW'S.

We got our answer although the "bounce" in the semiconductor's was really less than impressive.

The last 3 trading sessions have taken the market and several stocks to near short term "over bought" levels.

We are not going to chase the market at this point and will simply wait for the next opportunity to initiate some trades.

We will let our current  trades play out and manage our positions accordingly.

September is notorious for being a slow, choppy month for trading so be patient and wait for your ideal setups to get into the market.

Until next week...Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 20, 2010

Sunday, August 22nd, 2010

After the retrace back to the 50 Day SMA last week we saw the DJIA put in a bit of "bounce" to start out this week of trading.

DIA - DJIA ETF

After a nice GAP UP on Tuesday we saw the market stall on Wednesday as it failed to trade above Tuesday's HIGH.

Sellers jumped back into the market on Thursday and pushed the market lower to close the week in negative territory.

In last week's BLOG POST we posted about how we saw the market "transition" last Tuesday and Wednesday.

The type of price action transition we noticed had us looking for some SHORT Swing Trading setups coming into the start of this week.

As the market "bounced" to start the week we patiently waited for the WEAK stocks and ETF's to trigger a SHORT entry.

After posting about the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" chart pattenr in the Financial ETF (XLF) we followed up last week with a nice trade in the Inverse Financial ETF (FAZ).

 

This week FAZ setup yet another LONG trade entry as the weak Financial sector headed lower again.

FAZ - Inverse Financial ETF

Another sector ETF  that gave us a clue to look for SHORT trades was the Energy ETF (XLE).

After putting in a nice up move on Tuesday we watching as XLE reversed it's upward move and head straight down on Wednesday on INCREASED VOLUME.

This created a confirmed "lower high" a put our new down channel in place.

XLE - Energy ETF

This move in the ETF had us looking through the charts of individual stocks in this sector for possible SHORT trade setups Wednesday afternoon.

APC, SLB and CVX all had nice chart patterns with clearly defined risk levels in place.

This is a good example of how to use sector  ETF's to look for Swing Trading opportunities in stocks that a closely related or correlated to that sector.

The Oil Services ETF (OIH) had a nearly identical chart pattern.

OIH - Oil Servies ETF

DO, BHI and NBR we good candidates in this sector.

On the flip side of the coin we saw the GOLD and GOLD MINERS ETF's have a nice week to the UP side as their recent relative strength continues.

GDX - Gold Miners ETF

Stocks to watch in this sector going forward are AU, EGO, AEM, NEM, ABX, GG, and GG.

Also keep an eye on the Retail ETF (RTH) in the days to come.

We have noticed some strong BUYING in the some of the retail names this week.

This could be a sign of things to come but as always we need confirmation to declare the down trend has come to an end.

As we go into next week there are a few things that we have noticed that have us wondering whether or not this most recent down move has any legs.

We still have a TON of stocks that are holding up (showing relative strength) despite the selling we have witnessed the last two days of this week.

AKAM, MELI, INFA, MO, SNPS, and VRSN to name a few.

Although the DJIA and S&P have technically put in a "lower high" AND "lower low" the Nasdaq has only put in a "lower high" and has yet to confirm a "lower low".

No one knows for sure what we will do come Monday morning so as always be prepared for anything so that you can take the appropriate action when the market tells you it's true intentions.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

P.S

Would like to learn more about how we locate our short term trades in stocks and ETF's?

If so feel free join us Friday, August 27th for our "Finding Swing Trading Opportunities in Today's Market" webinar.

You can register for this absolutely FREE Swing Trading webinar HERE.

 

 

 

Swing Trading Chart Pattern – Inverse Head and Shoulders

Sunday, August 1st, 2010

ETF Swing Trading Watch List – The Financial ETF ($XLF) is now trading above its 50 period SMA and forming a "inverted" Head and Shoulders chart pattern.

XLF - Financial ETF

Swing Trading Week in Review – April 30, 2010

Saturday, May 1st, 2010

After making NEW YEARLY HIGHS on Monday the market finished down almost 1.8% this week.

Sellers came out in force on Tuesday but the market quickly rebounded Wednesday and Thursday.

The low volume "rebound" came to end on Friday as sellers stepped in again creating a sell off that drove the market down right until the closing bell.

Dow Jones Index 4/30/10

As far as individual sectors go, the Financial ETF's (XLF, IAI, IYF), all made another move lower this week.

We have been watching this sector closely since the negative news came out about Goldman Sachs.

Last week we noticed, and posted to our blog, that the Financial ETF's were not showing much strength as the market made its move up on Thursday and Friday.

The follow through to the down side started on Monday allowing us go LONG the Inverse Financial ETF (FAZ) for a nice short term swing trade.

FAZ - Swing Trading ETF

After hitting resistance at the short term double top FAZ pulled back a bit and continued its UP move on Friday.

Another sector we have been watching closely is the Steel sector.

We began to notice the Steel ETF (SLX) was possibly running out of steam during the market move to new highs on April 14th and 15th.

SLX never made it to new highs as the market rallied and actually begin to sell off as the market made its new high on the 15th.

The weakness continued last week and as the market again rallied to NEW HIGHS by Friday, SLX made an unimpressive bounce off of the 50 Day SMA.

When the sellers stepped in on Tuesday this week SLX sold off right out of the gate and never looked back.

The "Gap Down and Go" as we call it created a "lower high" and was a good opportunity for a SHORT Swing Trade in this sector.

SLX - Swing Trading ETF

So what do we do going into next week?

With the market putting in its first significant "lower high" this week we will continue to look for signs of follow through to the down side.

As always though we will continue to look for opportunities on both the LONG and SHORT side of the market just in case the market finds its legs again and makes a run back towards the highs.

Just remember that being prepared for ANYTHING and EVERYTHING increases your chances of trading success.

Until next week…Good trading to YOU!

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