Posts Tagged ‘Swing Trading Volume’

Swing Trading Week in Review – November 5, 2010

Sunday, November 7th, 2010

Swing Trading Blog – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP


Finally!!!

Swing Traders got the breakout they have been waiting for as the market traded to NEW HIGHS for the year this week.

As you would expect most of the sectors followed suit by rallying higher this week as well.

DIA

The sector ETF's making NEW HIGHS for the year this week were Agriculture ($DBA $MOO), Energy ($XLE), Real Estate ($IYR), Semiconductors ($SMH), Airlines ($FAA) and Technology ($XLK).

SIlver ($SLV) and Gold ($GLD) also rallied to NEW HIGHS as did the Gold Miners ($GDX).

Another interesting thing to take notice of is that there is finally some strength coming into the weakest sectors.

The Financials ($XLF $IYF) and the Hombuilders ($XHB) ETF's broke through key overhead resistance levels this week.

IYF XHB

The Broker/Dealer ETF ($IAI) also broke through the resistance in the $25-$27 area.

IAI

All of these ETF's broke through these prior resistance levels on BIG volume!

Follow through is the key but the amount of volume we saw at the end of last week in a hopefully a sign of good things to come.

In last weeks BLOG POST we told you that there were a TON of stocks pulling back nicely off of their most recent highs.

Hopefully you were able to get into some of these trades this week.

There were loads of what we call "text book" swing trades to take this week.

A few stocks with favorable risk/reward setups were $MEE, $EC, $ANN, $GS, $BBY, $SKS and $APC to name a few.

GS

$SPG ripped and even $F was a rock star this week!

F

There were some stocks that actually rolled over this week but with the market breaking out to new highs we have no need to focus on the SHORT side.

Although we will continue to watch BOTH sides of the market to determine overall strength and weakness just remember that CONTEXT is the KEY that allows you to take action.

CONTEXT tells us the market is way too strong to try to fight it but that being said it is also warning us NOT to chase it up at this point!

If for some reason you missed last weeks action BE PATIENT and wait for your trades to set up for you.

Sometimes it is hard to sit and wait when the market is moving up the way it is but often times that is the smartest thing to do.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – October 1, 2010

Sunday, October 3rd, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

Well after the long awaited BREAKOUT we saw last week the market followed up with…a nice long week of NOTHING!

Coming into this week there was a lot of optimism based on the recent bullish action we have seen in the overall market.

Traders (including us) were expecting at least a little follow through this week but instead were met with yet another frustrating week of consolidating price action.

SPY

Most of the stocks and ETF's did the exact same thing as the overall market.

A few were up slightly as the week came to an end but nothing to write home about.

There were a few exceptions as we saw the Energy and Oil Services ETF's have nice continuation moves this week.

In last weeks BLOG post we showed you our entry into XLE and the pullback that followed.

This week XLE continued its UP move despite the "stall" in the overall market.

XLE

As you would expect the Oil Services ETF (OIH) had a strong week.

RIG and DO were two stocks in this sector the gave us LONG trade signals this week.

RIG

GOLD and the GOLD MINERS (GDX) came back to life this week as well and SILVER (SLV) is acting just as bullish.

With last weeks news in the AIRLINE sector we saw the Airline ETF (FAA) trade up to a NEW HIGH for the YEAR.

Technology, Retail, Real Estate, Financial and the Homebuilders all had a lackluster week.

One sector to watch moving forward is going to be Agriculture.

This week we saw big time selling come into some of the stocks in this recently strong sector.

MON, MOS, CF and ADM all sold off this week despite the market holding up above its BREAKOUT level.

MON

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) have now put in their first significant pullback after last months nice run up.

This pullback may be a good time to look to buy some of the stronger names in this sector but the caution light is now flashing as we move forward.

MOO

This type of price and volume action is not yet a transition from a "bullish" to "bearish" bias for this sector but it is something to watch for in days/weeks to come.

The overall market is still very strong as almost every major sector ETF is trading above its 50 day SMA.

Last weeks "consolidation" is telling us that the buyers and sellers are playing a big game of tug-of-war at this level.

Obviously anything is possible next week.

A continuation move to the UP side wouldn't surprise us but neither would a retrace back near the 50 day SMA.

The key (as always) is to be prepared with a plan of action for either outcome.

What stocks and/or ETF's will you look to buy if the UP move continues?

What will you do if the market sells off on Monday indicating that the market is pulling back?

Will you SHORT anything or simply sit on the sidelines and wait?

You know what they say..."failing to plan is planning to fail".

Have your plan is place and execute when the time is right!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – September 24, 2010

Sunday, September 26th, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

Well we FINALLY got the directional move in the market that everyone has been waiting waiting for.

The BREAKOUT we saw on Monday was quickly followed by a 3 day shallow pullback which had some traders thinking the market was up to it's same old tricks.

SPY

With the way some of the individual sector's were acting we were actually thinking the same thing.

After holding up nicely for so long the Real Estate sector ETF (IYR) broke out with the overall market on Monday.

For the 3 days following the BREAKOUT sellers aggressively came in and drove this ETF well below the level of last week's consolidation.

Here is the chart…

IYR

You can see how this BREAKOUT failed and stopped us out (and a lot of other traders I would assume) as it retraces all the way back to it's 50 period SMA.

A swallow pullback in lines with the overall market was expected from such a strong ETF so this type of price action was not only frustrating but concerning as well.

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) had similar price action after giving us a LONG signal on Monday.

XLE

The retrace that followed created an "equal bottom" and came very close to our initial STOP LOSS level.

Friday XLE continued it's move up as the overall market BROKE OUT again.

The Retail sector ETF (RTH) continues to be the rock star!

RTH

Even after being short term OVERBOUGHT we saw RTH break to the UPSIDE Monday.

RTH then created a nice swallow, almost sideways consolidation during the 3 days that the overall market pulled back.

Friday the strength in this sector continued as RTH gapped up and traded through the $94-$96 level we mentioned last week.

One sector in transition this week were the Semiconductor's.

SMH

The SMH has been a real laggard but this week we saw buyers step in a finally bring this ETF back above it's 50 day SMA.

Although CREE and SNDK did result in new SHORT trades for us early in the week overall this sector seems to have found some new strength.

KLAC and NVDA stand out so we will watch some of the other stocks in this sector as we move into trading next week.

Friday was one of those days that there were so many trades that were triggering that it was hard to keep up!

We saw a ton of stocks BREAKING OUT and some stocks that just continue to RIP to the upside without even taking a breather.

Amazon (AMZN) opened this month at $126 and has gone straight up since then!

No retrace, no pullback just a parabolic RIP up to (so far) $160!!!

AMZN

Apple (AAPL) has basically done the same thing by going from the $240's straight up to close above $292 on Friday!

AAPL

Some of the BREAKOUT stocks our list included AGU, MMR, CCJ, INFA, HAL, SMG, WYN, NTAP, QCOM, CMI, EQIX and our recent money machine SOHU.

Not our entire list but a good list of stocks to watch as we move forward the next few weeks.

There were also a TON (way too many to list here) of non-breakout LONG trade setups last week.

This is a good sign of overall strength in the market and much better than just one or two sectors leading the way.

All in all the market is looking stronger and stronger but as always FOLLOW THROUGH will be the key.

Although there are a few stocks on our list that look weak it is hard to make a case for getting SHORT in light of the recent strength the market has shown us.

That being said we will continue to do what we do each day and prepare accordingly for each and every outcome that the market can present us.

Doing so allows us to react accordingly (and hopefully profitably) when the market decides what to do next.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 27, 2010

Saturday, August 28th, 2010

Buyers at the 10,000 level in the DJIA!

As the market drifted lower early in the week we saw a lack of follow through to the DOWN side as buyers stepped to hold the DJIA near 10,000.

DJIA

In last week's BLOG POST we said that we were seeing some signs of the market holding up and questioning the strength of the recent move lower.

Although the Nasdaq did finally confirm it's lower low the move down consisted of a GAP lower and more sideways trading rather than a nice orderly sell off.

QQQQ

The good news for us was that even though we saw sideways trading in the overall market some of the weak stocks we had positions in continued to move lower.

The is one of the benefits of identifying the weakest sectors and stocks when the market is showing signs of losing strength.

SLB, NBR and BHI all ended up being nice trades that drifted lower until they began to retrace on Friday.

We also posted about the GOLD sector last week.

The GOLD MINERS have been strong and the stocks we listed in last weeks post all had a very nice UP move this week!

GDX - Gold Miners ETF

EGO, ABX, NEM, AEM and of course GDX (Gold Miners ETF) offered some nice chart patterns to trade.

Looking forward to next week we see a few interesting chart patterns in some of the other sector ETF's.

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) continue to outperform the market.

They could be ready for their next move UP after this recent pullback.

Stocks to watch are POT, ADM, DE, MOS, MON, AGU and CF.

The Semiconductor's (SMH) remain weak and have started to retrace off of the previous year low.

Here is the WEEKLY chart for a better view…

SMH - Semi's ETF

The troublesome Financial ETF's (XLF and IYF) also moved down back down to the lows of the year.

Here is the WEEKLY chart of the XLF

XLF - Financial ETF

Do these weak sectors bounce off the lows and rally or simply put in a retrace before the move to NEW LOWS?

Well we are now trading back below the 50 Day SMA in the DJIA, S&P and the Nasdaq.

Although this is surely a sign of weakness we know how indecisive the market has been lately.

Do we get a nice retrace back up to the 50 Day SMA next week or do we continue the SELL OFF and head down towards the July lows?

No one knows for sure but as always have a plan in place for either outcome.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!
 

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