Posts Tagged ‘OIH’

Swing Trading Week in Review – October 1, 2010

Sunday, October 3rd, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

Well after the long awaited BREAKOUT we saw last week the market followed up with…a nice long week of NOTHING!

Coming into this week there was a lot of optimism based on the recent bullish action we have seen in the overall market.

Traders (including us) were expecting at least a little follow through this week but instead were met with yet another frustrating week of consolidating price action.

SPY

Most of the stocks and ETF's did the exact same thing as the overall market.

A few were up slightly as the week came to an end but nothing to write home about.

There were a few exceptions as we saw the Energy and Oil Services ETF's have nice continuation moves this week.

In last weeks BLOG post we showed you our entry into XLE and the pullback that followed.

This week XLE continued its UP move despite the "stall" in the overall market.

XLE

As you would expect the Oil Services ETF (OIH) had a strong week.

RIG and DO were two stocks in this sector the gave us LONG trade signals this week.

RIG

GOLD and the GOLD MINERS (GDX) came back to life this week as well and SILVER (SLV) is acting just as bullish.

With last weeks news in the AIRLINE sector we saw the Airline ETF (FAA) trade up to a NEW HIGH for the YEAR.

Technology, Retail, Real Estate, Financial and the Homebuilders all had a lackluster week.

One sector to watch moving forward is going to be Agriculture.

This week we saw big time selling come into some of the stocks in this recently strong sector.

MON, MOS, CF and ADM all sold off this week despite the market holding up above its BREAKOUT level.

MON

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) have now put in their first significant pullback after last months nice run up.

This pullback may be a good time to look to buy some of the stronger names in this sector but the caution light is now flashing as we move forward.

MOO

This type of price and volume action is not yet a transition from a "bullish" to "bearish" bias for this sector but it is something to watch for in days/weeks to come.

The overall market is still very strong as almost every major sector ETF is trading above its 50 day SMA.

Last weeks "consolidation" is telling us that the buyers and sellers are playing a big game of tug-of-war at this level.

Obviously anything is possible next week.

A continuation move to the UP side wouldn't surprise us but neither would a retrace back near the 50 day SMA.

The key (as always) is to be prepared with a plan of action for either outcome.

What stocks and/or ETF's will you look to buy if the UP move continues?

What will you do if the market sells off on Monday indicating that the market is pulling back?

Will you SHORT anything or simply sit on the sidelines and wait?

You know what they say..."failing to plan is planning to fail".

Have your plan is place and execute when the time is right!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – April 23, 2010

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

NEW HIGHS…YET AGAIN!

Last Friday when the news came out about Goldman Sachs a lot of traders (including us) started to wonder if the market would finally pullback after a bit of negative news.

Well this week the market spoke LOUD and CLEAR by finishing a strong week at NEW HIGHS for the year.

That makes this an almost 1400 point rally since "that reversal day" which happened on February 5th.

DJIA 1400 Point Rally

As far as individual sectors go the FInancial ETF's (XLF, IYF, IAI) all had a strong week but DID NOT make news highs with the market.

The Semiconductors ETF (SMH), which broke out last week, had a lackluster week but we will continue to watch for follow through to the upside.

The Oil services (OIH) and Energy ETF's (XLE) finally broke to the upside this week.

OIH ETF - Swing Trading Break Out

A few weeks ago in this blog we posted about the relative strength we were seeing in the Homebuilders ETF (XHB).

This week XHB setup another very nice swing trade opportunity.

We posted the details about the trade HERE but lets look at the chart.

XHB - ETF Swing Trade

With the market being this strong there were a TON of individual names that were UP strong this week.

The Retail sector was particularly strong with stocks like JWN, SKS, TIF and several others having a great week.

So will the incredible strength in these sectors and the overall market continue as we move into next week?

Of course no one knows for so just continue to listen to the market and position yourself accordingly.

DO NOT get complacent and let your guard down.

Follow your plan and your trading rules and be prepared for ANYTHING.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – April 1,2010

Friday, April 2nd, 2010

What a month March has been!

The DOW, S&P and NASDAQ all ended this holiday shortened week at the high for year.

DJIA

March has been a great month for Swing Traders if they were able to get on board this rally at some point during the month.

The markets basically traded sideways until the very end of the week when, on Thursday, the market popped up from the open and ended up rallying into to the close as well.

As far as individual sectors are concerned GOLD (GDX ETF), SILVER (SLV ETF), OIL (OIH ETF)and ENERGY (XLE ETF) all showed signs of life on Thursday after being some of the weakest sectors over the past few weeks.

A few of the strongest sectors, RETAIL (RTH ETF) and REAL ESTATE (IYR ETF), actually took a little break this week and pulled back a bit.

Stocks in these "Hot" sectors may offer Swing Traders another opportunity to get LONG in the near future.

Keep them on your radar and look for Swing Trade set ups that offer the lowest risk and highest reward.

As always…be prepared for ANYTHING!

Until next week…Good trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – March 26, 2010

Friday, March 26th, 2010

Is this the market that never stops?

This is the kind of rally that a lot of traders find very difficult to trade.

"But everything has gone straight up!"… you might say.

Yes and that is the PROBLEM!

When a market rallies like it has, for the last month or so, traders that missed the initial move are STILL WAITING for the market to "take a breather" and pullback so they can get LONG!

To sum it up…THEY HAVE MISSED THE BOAT!

Now I will agree that the rally we have seen is a bit atypical and at times it seems that you would be chasing the market if you entered into any new LONG trades.

I will argue, however, that if you look at the chart patterns and price action of some of the ETF's and individual stocks you will have found plenty of opportunity to BUY strong stocks.

This is one of the main reason we like Swing Trading ETF's and individual stocks.

We can compare their performance against the overall market.

We can determine whether a sector ETF or stock is "STRONG" or "WEAK" in relation to the market.

Our Swing Trading Blog (the one you are reading right now) posts a "Week in Review" every Friday.

Using just the information posted on that blog last week you could have had a great starting point to locate some swing trades this week.

For the last two weeks we posted to the blog that the Oil and Energy ETF's (OIH and XLE) did NOT seem like they wanted to participate in the recent rally (Relative WEAKNESS).

Not the best time to look for SHORT setups since the market is making NEW HIGHS so what about STRONG sectors?

Last week we also posted on the blog that Real Estate, Retail and Gaming have been some of the strongest sectors (Relative STRENGTH) out there.

We also posted a Swing Trading chart of XHB, the homebuilders sector ETF, which has also been a very strong sector lately.

We told you we would continue to watch these strong sectors as well as the major stocks in these sectors for swing trading setups.

On Monday morning the market gapped down but never broke through last Fridays low.

Once it held this low you should have been looking to get LONG if the market were to continue its strong rally UP.

This is where a lot of traders "miss the boat".

After Fridays HIGH VOLUME sell off they think that the market has finally started to "pullback" or "retrace".

These traders then start doing their nightly scans for stocks to trade the next day.

The problem is they are looking for SHORT trades and do not even consider looking for stocks to BUY.

Because of this they are NOT prepared when the market proves them wrong (like it did).

Because of this they missed swing trade setups in stocks like WYNN, LVS, MGM, DRE, KIM and O (all from last weeks blog).

And probably also missed the swing trade opportunity when XHB gapped down into support (see charts) and then rallied nicely to NEW HIGHS!

XHB Swing Trading ETF

The next they know the market moves UP strong and they are FLAT (no positions)!

The market moves up again the next day and they don't want to "chase the market " so again they dont do anything but sit and watch.

This is exactly how you miss big moves in the market like we have had over the last month!

Just remember, we never KNOW for certain what the market WILL do!

And like I said last week, as swing traders, we need to be prepared for WHATEVER the market decides to do.

That way once the market decides we, as traders, can simply follow and make the appropriate decisions.

Until next week…do your homework and BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING!

And as always…Good Trading to YOU!

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