Archive for the ‘Technical Analysis’ Category

Swing Trading Week in Review – January 7, 2011

Sunday, January 9th, 2011

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

The new year is HERE!

SPY - ETF Swing Trading

On a positive note the market continued to rally to NEW HIGHS this week.

On a different note we are starting to see some signs that concern us moving into next week.

One of the biggest things we have noticed this past week is that the SELLERS are becoming much more aggressive at these levels.

This has been evident in many of of the individual stocks that we monitor each and every day.

Take a look at some stocks like ATMI, LRCX, and NVLS in the Semiconductor sector.

LRCX

The Retail stocks have also taken a hit this week.

Look at ANN, M, TIF and TGT (to name a few).

ANN

We also take notice of the fact that some of the recently strong sector ETF's have shown a bit of weakness as the overall market moved higher this week.

As expected the Retail ETF's (RTH) are fist on this list.

Gold (GLD) and the Gold Miners (GDX) also got whacked this week.

GDX

With the noticeable selling coming into some of the Semiconductor stocks we are anxious to see watch next week has in store for this sector ETF (SMH).

Some of the other sector ETF's are holding up very well and are worth watching next week.

The FInancials (XLF), Hombuilders (XHB), Broker/Dealers (IAI), Agriculture (DBA) and Energy (XLE) and Oil (OIH) are on this list.

XHB

The number of sectors on this list is evidence of the overall strength of this market BUT there are signs that are a bit concerning for us.

Next week should be a good indication of where we go from here.

Sooner of later a PULLBACK will be upon us.

With that in mind make sure you have a plan in place so you can benefit (in one way or another) when the PULLBACK comes.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

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Swing Trading Week in Review – December 23, 2010

Sunday, December 26th, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

The SANTA CLAUS rally continues!

The holiday shortened week saw the market push higher although both VOLUME and VOLATILITY were less than impressive.

SPY

So what do we do from here?

No one knows for sue but a move on significant volume should give traders a clue.

As far as Sector ETF's go we are seeing the most of the strongest sectors continue to "drift" upwards.

Retail ($RTH), Energy ($XLE), Oil ($USO) and Oil Services ($OIH) all had a decent week.

Agriculture ($DBA) had a nice move this week as it moved to a NEW YEARLY HIGH.

DBA

Despite the "stall" on Thursday the Financials ($XLF), Broker/Dealers ($IAI) and the Homebuilders ($XHB) a nice move as well.

XLF

With a few exceptions most of the individual stocks on our Watch List followed the markets lead.

The lack of VOLUME lead to a lot of sideways trading this week.

Target ($TGT) and Carnival Cruise Lines ($CCL) were two stocks that provided us with nice LONG trade setups AND followed through nicely to close the week.

TGT CCL

As this nice move in the market continues the lack of VOLUME and VOLATILITY that we have mentioned in this post is a sign of caution as we move into next week.

The momentum has slowed a bit but that doesn't mean that it cant continue next week.

The only thing we can do as traders is to prepare ourselves for whatever the market decides to do and take the appropriate action.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – November 26, 2010

Sunday, November 28th, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

As the holiday shortened week came to end the markets appear to be a bit indecisive about which way they want to go from here.

The market was a bit choppy this week with a big GAP DOWN on Tuesday and then a big GAP UP on Wednesday.

The market of course was closed on Thursday but hen Friday morning rolled around traders we confronted with yet another GAP DOWN.

SPY - ETF Swing Trading

This "choppy" price action is a bit to be expected during a holiday week so it should be interesting to see what happens when we open for trading on Monday.

Last week we told you that our belief is that we are at a pivotal point in the market and this week has done nothing to change our mind.

All three major indices are still trading above their 50 day SMA's and some of the individual sectors are acting very well.

This is a good sign for the "Bulls".

On the flip side though is the fact that we are continuing to see more SHORT trade setups then we have in awhile.

It feels like the "Bears" are sitting on the sidelines and licking their chops waiting for the time to pounce.

Like we said last week how the market follows through from here will be the key.

Make sure you have a list of possible SHORTS and LONGS for next week.

Be prepared for whatever the market does from here and simply take action when it does.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – November 19, 2010

Sunday, November 21st, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

The sell off continued to start out the week on a negative note.

By Thursday however we saw the buyers step back in and give the markets a lift to close out the week.

This recent sell off has taken the major indices back near their 50 period SMA's on INCREASING VOLUME which is a bit concerning.

SPY- Swing Trading

The "inside day" we saw in the markets on Wednesday was followed by less than impressive volume as the market rose Thursday and Friday.

It looks like we are at another pivotal level in the market and as always follow through (and how it does) is the key.

This low volume "bounce" could be quickly followed by MORE BUYING and an increase in volume.

This would be a great short term sign that the bulls are still in charge.

If however this low volume "bounce" is followed by AGGRESSIVE SELLING then the market could be in a for a significant move lower.

Some of the sector ETF's preformed quite well to close out the week while others are showing signs of tremendous weakness.

The Oil Services (OIH) and Energy ETF's (XLE) had nice moves to the upside.

OIH- Swing Trading ETF XLE

The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) remains strong after it's recent BREAKOUT and we will continue to look for signs of follow through in this sector.

SMH

Silver (SLV) also made it's next UP SWING after a decent pull back from it's most recent high.

SLV - Silver ETF

The two sector's we focused on in last weeks BLOG POST…The Financial's (IYF, XLF) and the Homebuilders (XHB)…have now pulled back to a  level that is BELOW their recent breakout points.

IYF XHB

Both sector's are hovering around their 50 DAY SMA's and are still in a "zone" that COULD hold as support but this type of deep pullback after a HIGH VOLUME breakout is NOT a great sign.

Even though the market is showing a bit of weakness recently there were still plenty of opportunities to take some LONG trades this week.

Several stocks on our Watch List set up for some nice trades this week.

Stocks on this list were $LULU, $COG, $MRVL, $WLK, $X, $BRCM, $TIF, $MEE and $HAL (to name a few).

LULU

Even though the market is still technically in a very BULLISH phase it is at, what we believe, at very pivotal level.

For the first time in several weeks we are actually seeing a number of  SHORT trade setups.

During this recent sell off in the market several stocks have actually started to show signs of weakness.

$ERTS, $LLY, $G, $K, and $MED are a few on our list that are relatively weak.

The Real Estate sector (and the stocks within) have all been hit hard during this recent sell off.

$SPG, $DRE, $KIM and $O have sold off hard recently and a "bounce" could happen in the very near future but the price action and volume we have seen during this sell off has us looking to the SHORT side in this sector.

Next week should give us a good indication of where the market is headed from here.

You may have heard this before but…BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

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