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Swing Trading Week in Review – September 10, 2010

Sunday, September 12th, 2010

Swing Trading Blog Post-

This week the overall market continued to show it's recent strength as it closed a bit higher than last week.

Low volume often leads to low volatility and that is exactly what we saw this week.

Some of the individual sector ETF's also inched higher but without any real conviction.

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) remain strong as stocks like ADM and AGU moved higher this week.

With so many price levels that could be overhead resistance areas coupled with the low volume up move it make us wonder how long this move will continue.

Absent more volume coming in to move this market decisively higher it seems some form of a retrace is in order.

The Real Estate ETF (IYR) is holding up nicely after breaking out to new highs last week.

The 2 ETF's we mentioned last week (XLE and RTH) that broke their short term DOWN channel lines pushed a bit higher but on lower volume…a "caution" sign for sure.

We will continue to watch these sector ETF's going into next week and several stocks from these sectors are on our Watch List as well.

On the flip side of the coin the Semiconductor stocks took a hit on Friday and pushed the sector ETF (SMH) lower despite the overall strength in the market.

Several individual stocks in this sector had chart patterns that setup some nice risk/reward ratio's if you elected to trade on the SHORT side.

CREE and CRUS turned out to be nice STS trades as they all pushed down towards their recent lows and SNDK started its next move DOWN on Friday.

All in all we find ourselves (yet again) at a pivotal area in the overall market.

There are several stocks (DE, AKAM, MOS, EQIX) that look great for LONG trades in the near future *IF* buyers step up in force to move push them through their overhead resistance levels.

We could make the same argument for the weak stocks which look like they are setting up to move lower very soon.

It is still a choppy market and trend traders are pulling their hair out for sure!

If your strategy has a longer term holding period it may be prudent to sit on the sidelines until this market makes up its mind.

Another option is to shorten your time frame (like our STS Strategies) which means tighter stops and smaller profit targets.

Trade smart and protect your capital and until next week….Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: ETF Swing Trading, RIG, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog | 1 Comment »

Swing Trading Week in Review – September 3, 2010

Sunday, September 5th, 2010

Swing Trading Blog Post-

What a difference a week makes.

In last week's BLOG post we told that their were buyers at the 10,000 level in the DJIA.

We saw the buyers step in and hold the market up last week and again on Monday and Tuesday of this week.

Wednesday is when the real fun started.

After a big GAP UP Wednesday morning we saw the market rally the rest of the day to finish just off the high of the day.

Thursday brought more of the same and then the GAP UP, sell off and intraday reversal during Friday's session is a clear sign that buyers were in control.

The market continues it's erratic behavior and if you have trading for any amount of time you know that the month of September is likely to bring more of the same.

Last week we posted about the strength in the Agriculture related ETF's…DBA and MOO.

We gave you the "head's up" to watch this sector as it seemed ready for it's next move to the UP side.

Both ETF's followed through nicely this week as the market pushed higher to end the week.

Several of the other "strong" ETF's rallied to new multi month highs this week.

The Real Estate (IYR) and Utilities (XLU) are on this list as well as a few International ETF's like THD and BZF.

We also saw the Energy (XLE) and Retail (RTH) ETF's break their short term down trend lines.

The weak sector's we identified last week…the Semiconductor's and FInancial's…put in a decent bounce off of their recent low's.

We wondered last week if these sector ETF's were going to "bounce" back to their 50 Day SMA's or if they were ready to push to NEW LOW'S.

We got our answer although the "bounce" in the semiconductor's was really less than impressive.

The last 3 trading sessions have taken the market and several stocks to near short term "over bought" levels.

We are not going to chase the market at this point and will simply wait for the next opportunity to initiate some trades.

We will let our current trades play out and manage our positions accordingly.

September is notorious for being a slow, choppy month for trading so be patient and wait for your ideal setups to get into the market.

Until next week...Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: DIA, ETF Swing Trading, Financial ETF, Retail ETF, RTH, SMH, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Price Action, XLE, XLF
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Charts, Technical Analysis | No Comments »

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 27, 2010

Saturday, August 28th, 2010

Buyers at the 10,000 level in the DJIA!

As the market drifted lower early in the week we saw a lack of follow through to the DOWN side as buyers stepped to hold the DJIA near 10,000.

In last week's BLOG POST we said that we were seeing some signs of the market holding up and questioning the strength of the recent move lower.

Although the Nasdaq did finally confirm it's lower low the move down consisted of a GAP lower and more sideways trading rather than a nice orderly sell off.

The good news for us was that even though we saw sideways trading in the overall market some of the weak stocks we had positions in continued to move lower.

The is one of the benefits of identifying the weakest sectors and stocks when the market is showing signs of losing strength.

SLB, NBR and BHI all ended up being nice trades that drifted lower until they began to retrace on Friday.

We also posted about the GOLD sector last week.

The GOLD MINERS have been strong and the stocks we listed in last weeks post all had a very nice UP move this week!

EGO, ABX, NEM, AEM and of course GDX (Gold Miners ETF) offered some nice chart patterns to trade.

Looking forward to next week we see a few interesting chart patterns in some of the other sector ETF's.

The Agriculture ETF's (DBA and MOO) continue to outperform the market.

They could be ready for their next move UP after this recent pullback.

Stocks to watch are POT, ADM, DE, MOS, MON, AGU and CF.

The Semiconductor's (SMH) remain weak and have started to retrace off of the previous year low.

Here is the WEEKLY chart for a better view…

The troublesome Financial ETF's (XLF and IYF) also moved down back down to the lows of the year.

Here is the WEEKLY chart of the XLF…

Do these weak sectors bounce off the lows and rally or simply put in a retrace before the move to NEW LOWS?

Well we are now trading back below the 50 Day SMA in the DJIA, S&P and the Nasdaq.

Although this is surely a sign of weakness we know how indecisive the market has been lately.

Do we get a nice retrace back up to the 50 Day SMA next week or do we continue the SELL OFF and head down towards the July lows?

No one knows for sure but as always have a plan in place for either outcome.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Tags: 50 Day SMA, DIA, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Price Action, Swing Trading Strategies, Swing Trading Volume
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Technical Analysis | 2 Comments »

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 20, 2010

Sunday, August 22nd, 2010

After the retrace back to the 50 Day SMA last week we saw the DJIA put in a bit of "bounce" to start out this week of trading.

After a nice GAP UP on Tuesday we saw the market stall on Wednesday as it failed to trade above Tuesday's HIGH.

Sellers jumped back into the market on Thursday and pushed the market lower to close the week in negative territory.

In last week's BLOG POST we posted about how we saw the market "transition" last Tuesday and Wednesday.

The type of price action transition we noticed had us looking for some SHORT Swing Trading setups coming into the start of this week.

As the market "bounced" to start the week we patiently waited for the WEAK stocks and ETF's to trigger a SHORT entry.

After posting about the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" chart pattenr in the Financial ETF (XLF) we followed up last week with a nice trade in the Inverse Financial ETF (FAZ).

This week FAZ setup yet another LONG trade entry as the weak Financial sector headed lower again.

Another sector ETF that gave us a clue to look for SHORT trades was the Energy ETF (XLE).

After putting in a nice up move on Tuesday we watching as XLE reversed it's upward move and head straight down on Wednesday on INCREASED VOLUME.

This created a confirmed "lower high" a put our new down channel in place.

This move in the ETF had us looking through the charts of individual stocks in this sector for possible SHORT trade setups Wednesday afternoon.

APC, SLB and CVX all had nice chart patterns with clearly defined risk levels in place.

This is a good example of how to use sector ETF's to look for Swing Trading opportunities in stocks that a closely related or correlated to that sector.

The Oil Services ETF (OIH) had a nearly identical chart pattern.

DO, BHI and NBR we good candidates in this sector.

On the flip side of the coin we saw the GOLD and GOLD MINERS ETF's have a nice week to the UP side as their recent relative strength continues.

Stocks to watch in this sector going forward are AU, EGO, AEM, NEM, ABX, GG, and GG.

Also keep an eye on the Retail ETF (RTH) in the days to come.

We have noticed some strong BUYING in the some of the retail names this week.

This could be a sign of things to come but as always we need confirmation to declare the down trend has come to an end.

As we go into next week there are a few things that we have noticed that have us wondering whether or not this most recent down move has any legs.

We still have a TON of stocks that are holding up (showing relative strength) despite the selling we have witnessed the last two days of this week.

AKAM, MELI, INFA, MO, SNPS, and VRSN to name a few.

Although the DJIA and S&P have technically put in a "lower high" AND "lower low" the Nasdaq has only put in a "lower high" and has yet to confirm a "lower low".

No one knows for sure what we will do come Monday morning so as always be prepared for anything so that you can take the appropriate action when the market tells you it's true intentions.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

P.S

Would like to learn more about how we locate our short term trades in stocks and ETF's?

If so feel free join us Friday, August 27th for our "Finding Swing Trading Opportunities in Today's Market" webinar.

You can register for this absolutely FREE Swing Trading webinar HERE.

Tags: APC, DIA, ETF Swing Trading, Financial ETF, Retail ETF, SHORT SWING TRADING, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Chart Patterns, Swing Trading Volume, XLE, XLF
Posted in ETF Swing Trading, Swing Trading, Swing Trading Blog, Swing Trading Charts | No Comments »