Archive for the ‘Swing Trading Chart Patterns’ Category

Swing Trading Week in Review – October 19, 2012

Sunday, October 21st, 2012

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

And DOOOOOOOWN we go…

This week traders watch the market roll over and finish out the week with DJIA dropping over 200 points.

After a bit of a retrace to start the week the NASDAQ got rocked again!

I'm sure the earning news from Google ($GOOG) didn't help matters at all.

The chart of the NASDAQ is a classic chart pattern that shows the relative weakness we were looking at.

Thursday price action and volume confirmed the next move lower and let us draw our new accelerated trend line.

On the flip side a few sectors actually did quite well this week.

The Homebuilders ($XHB) actually traded to a NEW HIGH this and  the Financials ($XLF) popped nicely early in the week.

The Energy and Oil sectors ($XLE $OIH) broke out of consolidation this week but were also met with a big day of selling on Friday.

The Tech sector (including the Semi's) continued to get whacked this week.

Both $XLK and $SMH traded to new multi month lows on Friday.

Gold ($GLD) and Silver ($SLV) continue to sell off after putting in a telltale "lower high" last week.

The amount of SHORT setups we saw this week were a good indication that the market was turning.

$AAPL was a pretty text book short.

The interesting thing here is that despite the hard sell off we saw this week there are still loads of stocks holding up.

This relative strength keeps us looking at both sides of the market for trade opportunities.

If the Dow and S&P follow the NASDAQs lead we will see how these stocks handle the heat.

Another sell off that brings these two indices below their 50 day SMA's would have us focusing mostly on the SHORT side but until then we will actively look at both sides of the market.

Will the market follow through to the DOWN side of find some support this week?

No one know for sure so be prepared for either option.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – October 12, 2012

Sunday, October 14th, 2012

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

$DIA - Swing Trading ETF

After returning to the recent high last week swing traders watched as the Dow Jones Industrial Average sold off this week.

Right from the opening bell on Monday the sellers came out in a big way.

By weeks end the selling pressure had us looking at one of the worst weeks since the summer.

This did NOT happen without warning though.

Last week we pointed out the some of the recently strong sectors were showing signs of "losing steam".

The Tech sector had stalled causing the tech heavy NASDAQ to stall right along with it.

We said that we would need confirmation to validate a move higher or lower and that the NASADAQ could be a catalyst.

This week we watched the confirmation come almost from the get go on Monday.

The GAP DOWN had us looking to the SHORT SIDE by days end.

This was the price action clue that we were looking for.

The move lower on Tuesday on increased volume was all we needed to know that the next move lower was upon us.

Here is the chart of the QQQ

$QQQ - Swing Trading ETF

The transition from bullish to bearish that we saw this week brings the market back down near the 50 day EMA.

The DJIA and S&P and basically hugging the 50 day while the weaker NASDAQ has now traded below it.

This latest move has people wondering a bigger sell off isnt right around the corner.

There are some sectors still showing strength.

The Financials and Homebuilders are (as of now) holding up.

The Energy and Oil ($XLE $OIH) sectors are trading sideways despite the market pushing lower.

Look for a breakout (or breakdown)in these two sectors in the near future.

One weak sector we mentioned a few weeks ago was the Semiconductors ($SMH).

$SMH - Short Swing Trading

Notice the relative weakness prior to the sell off this week.

A good place to look for SHORTS wouldn't you say?

Gold and Silver ($GLD $SLV) are holding up BUT…

After last weeks down move the market and a few of these sectors are in short term oversold territory.

We could see the buyers step in here very soon to protect their long positions.

The SHORTS may also look to cover and take some profits.

All that being said expect a stall or even a bit of a bounce.

Now that we have seem some weakness in the market it is important to have a complete watch list.

Look through the charts and put together a list of stocks that are weaker than the market.

Put those with the best chart patterns on your SHORT watch list.

Look for stocks that are holding up well doing this recent down move.

Put those with the best patterns on your LONG list.

Once the market lets you know where it is headed next take the appropriate action.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – October 5, 2012

Sunday, October 7th, 2012

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

$DIA - Swing Trading ETF

The rally continues (for the most part).

The market drifted higher this week pushing the DJIA back to high that we hit a few weeks back.

This move brings the DJIA into an area that has some traders looking for a double top pattern to take place.

In last weeks BLOG POST we noted the low volume that accompanied some of the moves we saw.

This week the volume did increase BUT it was not across the board.

We watched as both the DJIA and S&P rose while the technology heavy NASDAQ basically sat this move out.

The sector action was mixed.

The Gold and Silver ETF's ($GLD $GDX $SLV) continue to hover around their highs.

$GLD - Swing Trading ETF

Both Healhcare ($XLV) and Retail ($RTH) broke out to NEW HIGHS.

$XLV - Swing Trading ETF $RTH - Swing Trading ETF

The recently strong Financials ($XLF) and Homebuilders ($XHB) drifted higher as well.

The lagging sectors were Energy and Oil ($XLE $OIH $USO) and the Semiconductors ($SMH) and Tech ($XLK).

This "mixed bag" of results leads us to believe that the market may be losing some steam.

As we move into next week we will need to see confirmation to confirm that though.

If we see the NASDAQ jump on board that could push the overall market higher in a hurry.

If however we see more sectors breaking down or failing to participate then we will start looking to the SHORT side more and more.

As always we will have plan for whatever the market decides to do from here and act accordingly.

We hope you will do the same.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

 

 

Swing Trading Week in Review – September 28, 2012

Sunday, September 30th, 2012

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

$DIA - Swing Trading ETF

Swing Traders finally get the pullback that they have been waiting for.

After trading "sideways" last week the market put in a much anticipated retrace this week.

Thursdays UP move was the only decent UP move the market saw this week.

The low volume that accompanied Thursdays price action has us wondering if the next move to the UP side was really upon us.

Take a look through your charts and you will see what we mean.

A lot of stocks and ETF's had moves to the UP side but look at the volume.

You will that many of these moves came on very low volume.

We always like to see price action and volume moving together.

This does not always guarantee that the trades we make when these two are moving together always work out.

More often than not though when the price action and volume patterns work together we get a move in our favor.

Putting the current market action into proper context is very important in most trading situations and this is no different.

After such an extended run up in the market we are always cautious of taking trades after brief pullbacks.

This most recent pullback only gave us 2-3 days of pulling back after breaking out to new highs.

In that case we would like to see a few more days of selling before we jump back in to the market.

It takes experience and honestly a little luck to not jump on every trade in such a strong market.

The traders that did jump back in on Thursday had to wonder if they make the right decision come Friday.

Some stocks and ETF's look like they weathered Fridays action pretty well.

As we look through the charts we see a lot of inside bar patterns.

If you have followed us for any amount of time you know how important these inside bars are in our trading strategies.

The bars are what we consider to be "stalls" in the market.

These "stalls" can give us clues to where the market is headed next.

Continuations out of a "stall" can gives us another chance to enter into a stock or ETF that we may have missed.

If price breaks down after a "stall" then this tells us the short term sentiment has changed.

Some of the sector ETFs with inside bar patterns are $GLD $SLV and $XLK.

The Homebuilders ETF ($XHB) actually has a double inside bar pattern.

$XHB - Swing Trading ETF

Next week put these on your Watch List if they aren't already and just watch HOW they break out of these patterns.

As we look forward to next week we are still looking mostly to the LONG side.

There are however a few signs that have us looking to the SHORT side…just in case.

Two sectors that stand out to us are the Steel ($SLX) and the Semiconductors ($SMH).

Both sectors are weak but the semis actually broke down this week.

$SMH - Swing Trading ETF

Being prepared for ANYTHING is crucial to your success as a trader.

Next week we could see the market rip or fall apart.

Have a plan for both outcomes and take action once it happens.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

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