Archive for February, 2010

Swing Trading Week in Review – February 26, 2010

Friday, February 26th, 2010

A pullback in market this week but what an interesting pullback it was!

The markets opened this week with a low volume lackluster Monday.

Tuesday the market popped out of the gate but quickly rolled over confirming the retrace was underway.

As we noted last week we entered into several new SHORT positions by the close on Friday.

These SHORT positions (AMSC comes to mind) sold off nicely with the market and we booked profits on most of these trades.

Wednesday price "stalled" on low trading volume again creating an "inside day".

Then on Thursday things got a little interesting…

The market gapped down BIG TIME on Thursday but buyers stepped in and the market rallied strong and closed near the high of the day on BIG VOLUME.

Then the week finished off with a low range, choppy day on Friday.

A few interesting things to note here.

During this most recent pullback we saw the buyers step into the market when prices retraced "far enough" and drove prices right back up.

There was only one day, Tuesday, when the market closed BELOW the swing high of 10314.84 that was put in on February 2nd.

We told you last week that until the week shows us which way its going we will continue to play both sides of the market.

Thursday's price action had us looking to the LONG side and we were able to find several strong stocks with chart patterns that were just too good to pass up!

One sector really shined that really shined this week?

RETAIL!

Yes retail…the RTH…broke its DOWN TREND CHANNEL last week and after a mere one day pullback on Tuesday it rallied nicely right into Friday.

RTH - Retail Sector ETF

TIF, M, HD and ANN all had nice UP moves this week.

On the other end of the spectrum is the SOLAR sector.

The SOLAR ETF, symbol TAN, continued its downward spiral finishing just off the low of year.

TAN - SOLAR ETF

So once again we find ourselves at a crossroads.

UP or DOWN?

LONG or SHORT?

Want our opinion?

We say….WHO CARES!

Have a great trading plan in place and be prepared for whichever way the market goes from here.

If you are getting whipsawed in this current environment then reduce your trading size or even sit on the sidelines until YOU see the trading set ups that make the most sense to YOU and your trading style!

Hopefully next week we can get some follow through one way or the other.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

 

 

 

 


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Swing Trading Week in Review – February 19, 2010

Friday, February 19th, 2010

What a difference a week makes!

The market caught traders off guard this week as it continued higher breaking the most recent swing high at 10314.84 that was set on February 2nd.

In our last "Week in Review" we advised that although we had a SHORT bias we were still taking LONG trades in stocks with strong chart patterns.

And as Tuesday rolled around and the markets gapped higher we were glad we were on the LONG side of the market (even if only a few positions).

Most of the SHORT set ups never materialized so that kept us out of any new SHORT positions while the market continued to move up for the entire week!

As the markets closed this week it looks like we are due for a little pull back after this "slingshot" type rally we have had from the lows on last reversal Friday…February 5th.

We entered into several new SHORT swing trades on FRIDAY based on the price action, volume patterns and chart patterns that revealed themselves by the end of the day.

Its hard to enter into any new LONG positions since the market has come so far, so fast this week.

So what do we do next week?

We follow our plan.

We look for WEAK stocks with LOW RISK/HIGH REWARD charts patterns to SHORT and LOW RISK/HIGH REWARD chart patterns in STRONG stocks to get LONG.

With the market acting the way it is we will continue to dabble a bit on both sides of the market.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

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Swing Trading Week in Review – February 12, 2010

Friday, February 12th, 2010

DOWN…UP…DOWN…wait no…UP!

Wow! What a roller coaster this week has been.

Well after last Friday's reversal day (Hammer in candlestick terms) we knew we would we in for an interesting week this week.

Would buyers step back into the market and drive it higher?

Or would the sellers regain control and push the market back down?

Well after all is said and done the market finished up a mere 87 points ( under 1%) for the WEEK.

Not very impressive!

This week the market appears to have simply put in a retrace in a longer term down trend.

DIA Swing Trading Chart

As you see from the chart of the Diamonds (DOW ETF) we are trading well under the 50 day SMA.

We havent traded BELOW the 50 day SMA for this many days since MARCH of last year!

A bearish sign?

We believe so, but as always, we don't want to try to PREDICT what the market will do.

As Swing Traders we simply want to ANTICIPATE what it will do and hopefully take the appropriate and profitable action in time.

A few sectors ETF's, XLF (Financials), RTH (Retail), XLE (Energy), OIH (Oil Services), still look very weak in the short term.

Some sector ETF's however are showing some interesting chart patterns.

The Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is trading ABOVE its 50 day SMA and has held up quite well during the recent down move in the market.

XHB Homebuilders ETF

Stocks like PHM, DHI, MTH, TOL and LEN had decent gains this week.

We aren't sure, of course, if this strength will continue in this sector but we have some small gains already "locked in" so we will trail our stops accordingly.

There has also been some individual names on our watch list that have performed quite well this week.

ASH, CMI, G, AAP and DLB have all done well while RIMM has been a rock star!

Its very hard to get aggressive to the LONG side when the market is acting the way it is.

So while we continue to have a SHORT bias we take a few LONG positions in strong stocks just in case the market continue to move up.

On the SHORT side there are a TON of charts showing potential SHORT swing trade set ups.

Regardless of what the market does next week we will be ready!

Until next week…Good trading to YOU!

 

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Swing Trading Week in Review – February 5, 2010

Friday, February 5th, 2010

Well it has been another wild week in the market!

Monday and Tuesday saw the markets climb giving some traders and investors a sense that the market may have found some support.

Wednesday's lackluster performance was quickly followed up by another round of HIGH VOLUME SELLING on Thursday.

Fridays market action was quite volatile with selling continuing early in the day.

Buyers stepped in after lunch time and turned the market around by rallying about 160 points to end the day near break even.

DIA (Dow ETF)

So after Friday afternoons reversal what can we expect going into next week?

As always we let the charts tell us what to do.

Last weeks price action was "picture perfect" when it came to SHORT swing trade set ups.

Monday and Tuesdays low volume up move we quickly identified as simply a retrace in a down channel.

Wednesday's inside day, again on low volume, created perfect chart patterns for SHORT SWING TRADE opportunities.

The trigger came on Thursday when the selling came back into the market after the retrace.

If you would have gotten SHORT on Thursday and managed your swing trades the right way, Friday's reversal day would NOT have been a big deal to you.

You could have covered your positions into the downward momentum on Thursday and even into Friday morning.

If you chose to only cover a portion of your positions then the worst case scenario was to move your stop down to break even (at least) on the remaining shares.

Next week's market action should be very interesting after Fridays impressive late day rally.

If you are prepared for battle (have a solid trading plan) it shouldn't matter what the market does since you are prepared for EACH and EVERY situation the market throws at you.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

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