Posts Tagged ‘SLX’

Swing Trading BLOG – Week in Review – May 13, 2011

Sunday, May 15th, 2011

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

$DIA

After last weeks SELL OFF the market put in a LOW VOLUME bounce to start the week.

Wednesday SELLERS stepped back into the market and pushed the market a bit lower.

The sideways trading that followed to end the week lets us know that a struggle is underway.

Oil and Energy ETF's continued their move down but the angle of the SHORT TERM DOWNTREND line is a bit steep.

$XLE

The Steel sector ETF ($SLX) continued to show it's relative weakness and pushed to a NEW LOW for the year this week.

It's no surprise that stocks like $X, $AKS and $STLD offered nice SHORT trade setups this week.

$SLX - Swing Trading ETF's

On the flip side this week was the Retail ETF ($RTH) which broker out to NEW HIGHS this week.

The move up was on INCREASING VOLUME but ended the week "stalling" at the high as volume dropped.

$RTH - Swing Trading ETF's

Next week should be interesting for sure.

The major market indices put in a LOWER HIGH so lets see if a LOWER LOW is in order.

If the previous SWING LOW holds and VOLUME comes back into the market on the BUY side then look for confirmation on a break of the previous SWING HIGH.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – April 8, 2011

Sunday, April 10th, 2011

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

$DIA
 

Swing traders watched as the market moved to NEW HIGHS again this week but the move lacked the follow through that we were hoping for.

The week started out on a positive but was quickly followed by a three consolidation pattern to end the week.

The market is still strong of course so there were several ETF's and individual stocks making some nice moves.

With Oil being a very active sector it is no surprise that the US Oil ETF ($USO) turned in a great week.

$USO

Another sector on the move this week was the Retail sector ($RTH)…

$RTH

This sector has rebounded nicely and is trading back near its 3 month high.

This BLOG post would be complete without mentioning that both the GOLD and SILVER ETF's ($GDX $GLD $SLV) are definitely "in play"!

$GLD $SLV

All the sectors listed above (and a few others) are on our radar as we move into trading next week.

The Technology sector ($XLK $SMH) seems to be lagging a bit as this market remains strong.

For now we are sticking mostly to the LONG side as the market continues to trade near its highs.

We will keep an eye on the SHORT side just in case thing take a turn for the worst.

Be prepared for anything…and until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – August 6, 2010

Saturday, August 7th, 2010

The week of going nowhere!

After a decent GAP UP Monday morning the market followed through with…nothing really.

Low volatility and volume usually lead to "sideways" type price action and that is exactly what we saw this week.

DIA - ETF Swing Trading

The 2 blue arrows above indicate the "double top" area that we posted in last week's BLOG.

Monday morning's GAP UP brought us up above this level and ended up trading above it for almost the entire week.

Friday we saw the market GAP DOWN and then rally a bit only to ROLL OVER to the DOWN SIDE prior to an afternoon reversal which brought the market back over the "double top" area.

Here is a look at the 15 minute chart so you can we what we mean.

DIA - 15 minute chart

Monday through Thursday you can see the "sideways" price action we encountered.

Although the INTRADAY price action was great this type lack of follow thorugh can be very frustrating for Swing Traders.

Most (not all) of our positions did exactly as the market did this week…went almost nowhere.

Although the GAP UP on Monday and the Friday afternoon reversal indicate that there are buyers at this level in the market it is still a sign of overall indecision (so far) to move this market higher or lower.

There are still a lot of stocks that have great chart patterns that my be setting up for some nice trades in the week ahead.

CHKP, NTAP , ALK, BAX and CAL are a few that we will be watching.

The Steel Sector has also been very strong as of late so we will continue to watch SLX, X, CLF, AKS, and STLD.

With the decent rally (and lack of DOWNSIDE follow through) in the GOLD MINERS this week we will watch to see how these stocks shape up during next weeks trading.

A exception to the LOW VOLATILITY theme of this BLOG post this week was the Education Stocks.

APOL, DV, COCO and CECO all had nice chart patterns that setup some great SHORT trades on Tuesday.

Take a look at these charts and you will see great example of the PRICE and VOLUME relationship.

CECO - Short Swing Trade APOL - Short Swing Trade

Also as a reminder our next PVT (Price, Volume and Trend Lines) Trading Tactics class will be held next Saturday August 14th.

If learning how to use Price Action and analyze Volume to make trading decisions in stocks and/or ETF's is of interest to you then be sure not to miss it!

Our new Swing Trading BOOTCAMP, Swing Trading Strategy Class, and FREE webinar schedules will be coming out this week so we hope to see you at one (or all) of the upcoming events.

Until next week…Good trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – July 23, 2010

Saturday, July 24th, 2010
DIA - Swing Trading ETF

Wow! What a difference a week makes!

After last Friday's sell off every talking head in the media was predicting "doom and gloom" and DOW 8000.

When the market closed today you heard nothing but what a GREAT market this is and how we could be headed for new highs!

I have long ago dismissed most of what is said on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. and watch and listen now solely for entertainment purposes.

As a trader I think it can be very misleading and can often times cloud your decision making process.

Do your own research and follow the rules of the system you put in place based on the result of your research.

I say this because a few traders that I talked to this week said that they were not even looking to the LONG side of the market because "everyone I hear on TV is bearish on the market".

As a short term trader you need to be in sync with market.

By being "in sync" with the market often times you can profit from short term price swings regardless of the overall market environment.

Being prepared for whatever the market does is half the battle.

During our "Swing Trading Weekly Wrap Up" webinar last night there was one question that came up a few times.

A few people asked how we were able identify any LONG trades this week since the overall market was in such a obvious DOWN trend.

These traders, like the ones mentioned above, were also only focused on the SHORT side of the market and essentially missed the move up in the market this week.

Part of our answer to this question is that we ALWAYS have a list of STRONG and WEAK stocks and ETF's on our watchlist.

During the past few weeks we have been mostly focused on the WEAK stocks since we were in a down trending environment.

At the same time though we maintained a list of stocks and ETF's that were showing relative strength to the overall market.

When the market gives us "clues" that it may be transitioning from one mode to the other (in this case from DOWN to UP) we are turn to this list to look for trading opportunities.

For beginning swing traders we always recommend that you trade on the same side of the 50 period SMA as the overall market.

We use this as a "dynamic" trend line to keep new traders on the right side of the market.

So, for example, if the market is trading below the 50 period SMA look for trade setups in stocks and ETF's that are also trading below the 50 period SMA.

When the overall market is trading near the 50 period SMA looking for trade setups on BOTH sides of the market is often times a good idea.

That way when the market gives you confirmation on which way it is headed you can on the right side if the market and take the appropriate trades.

This week we saw this exact setup in the market.

DIA - Swing Trading ETF

After hitting new yearly lows at the beginning of the month the market put in a decent retrace until July 14th.

The next move DOWN started on the 15th and was followed by a "high volume' sell off last Friday.

During this time most of our SHORT trades (ALL, MET, ZION, LNC, etc.) worked out very well and we were able to take profits in our positions.

Some of our other SHORT positions (SLX, CLF) we a little slower to move to the down side.

Since we are SHORT we need to see a few things to let us know that the trend is still down and going lower.

We need to see price action moving lower and volume moving higher.

This lets us know that sellers are jumping back on board to move prices lower.

Monday the price action in the overall market and in some of our positions was less than impressive.

Volume was significantly less than Friday as well.

Not exactly the follow through you would expect after such a big sell off on Friday.

Our slow moving SLX SHORT actually creates a low volume "inside day"…a classic price stall.

SLX - Swing Trading ETF

We failed to get what we need to confirm we are still headed lower.

This "stalling" price action gives us our first "clue" and puts us on "high alert" that sentiment MAY change.

These "stalls" dont give us an exit signal from our SHORT positions just yet.

We still need confirming price action (and volume) to take action.

Tuesday's "gap and go" was CLEAR sign that SHORT was the wrong side on the market.

We were able to cover our SHORT in SLX for a tiny profit and our CLF SHORT at break even.

We not only covered our SHORT trade in SLX we actually flipped to the LONG side based on the context of the market and the sector itself.

SLX - Swing Trading ETF

We did NOT flip to LONG in CLF but we did buy AKS since it had a stronger chart pattern.

Notice the LOW volume 3 day pullback prior to AKS ripping higher.

AKS - Swing Trade

Both SLX and AKS were trading at their 50 day SMA's and Tuesday UP move created a DOWN trend break out in both as they traded and closed above their 50 day SMA.

These were both "trend transition" type trades and may have been a little difficult for some traders to identify.

There were however plenty of STRONG stocks (trading ABOVE their 50 day SMA) to turn to once the market started its UP move.

Several chip stocks (ALTR, XLXN, MCHP, LLTC) were showing tremendous relative strength lately and offered up some nice trade setups.

Plenty of other stocks presented the same opportunity – HAL, ALK, CRM, AKAM, HMIN, NTAP, AXP, JNPR, and ATVI just to name a few.

Pull up the charts so you can see how these "strong" stocks reacted when the market pushed to the UP side.

Be prepared for anything and everything!

If you want to know exactly how we find the best Swing Trading Setups please join us at our upcoming webinar this Friday night!

You can register HERE!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

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