Posts Tagged ‘Inverse ETF’

Swing Trading Week in Review – May 21, 2010

Friday, May 21st, 2010

The SELL OFF continues!

Another volatile week in the markets this week as the sellers came out in droves driving the Dow back down near the lows we saw on May 6.

DJIA - Swing Trading Strategies

In last weeks Swing Trading Blog post we notified you of the numerous SHORT Swing Trade setups we had on our "Watch List" for Thursday (May 13th) morning.

Our strategy was to locate weak sectors and individual stocks within those sectors that were giving us LOW RISK setups.

We also advised that when the market followed through to the downside we entered into several new positions.

In our Swing Trading Newsletter we highlighted the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and several of the stocks (KLAC. LLTC, MXIM) within that sector that had nice SHORT trade chart patterns.

Some of the other stocks on our list included AXP, FDX, MET, ALL, and SOHU.

We also got LONG trades off in the Inverse Energy ETF (ERY) and the Financial Inverse ETF (FAZ).

ERY - Inverse Energy ETF Swing Trading

FAZ - Inverse Financial ETF Swing Trading

Well needless to say these trades played out nicely this week as the market made its way lower.

We were able to scale out of our trades on the way up and when the market gapped down again on Friday we tighted our trailing stops and were taken out of most of our remaining shares.

The sellers were relentless this week taking down almost every sector along with it.

The Steel (SLX), Solar(TAN), Oil (OIH), Energy (XLE) and Agribusiness (DBA) ETF's all made new yearly LOWS this week.

Some of the previously strong sectors also came down with the market during this weeks sell off.

Retail (RTH), Real Estate (IYR) and the Homebuilders (XHB) finally broke under their 50 day SMA's and headed lower.

The Gold (GLD and GDX) and Silver (SLV) ETF's came off of their recent highs to put in a lengthy and somewhat concerning pullback.

Fridays "bounce back" tells us that a retrace could be in order going into next week.

We are currently watching some stocks that have shown signs of relative strength during the down move this week but until the obvious negative sentiment changes we will continue to look for additional SHORT trading opportunities.

If you would like to learn more about our Swing Trading Strategies and Techniques please feel free to join us at any one of our upcoming courses or webinars.

Until next week…GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

 

 

 

 

 

Swing Trading Week in Review – May 7, 2010

Friday, May 7th, 2010

Can you say Volatility?

Wow!

What a roller coaster ride we had in the market this week!

After the dust settled we ended the week with the NASDAQ down 8%, the S&P down 6% and the DOW down 5.7%.

This highlight of the week was of course the historic intraday sell off in the markets on Thursday.

The DOW fell almost 1,000 points (due to a trading error?) in the early afternoon but staged a comeback and the late day rally brought the market up to finish the day down only 347 points!

DOW JONES SELL OFF - May 6, 2010

Wow…what a crazy day indeed!

Last week we advised our Swing Trading newsletter subscribers to go into this week on "High Alert".

This alert was due to the market putting in its first significant LOWER HIGH since the rally started in February.

He is a a similar chart that we posted with our "alert".

Dow Jones Lower High April 30, 2010

The S&P and NASDAQ 100 charts had the same chart pattern which was a "triple heads up".

When the market opened up on Monday and rallied right out of the gate finishing just off the highs a lot of traders thought Fridays price action had to be a "fake out".

For us though Tuesday's price AND volume action kept us looking more to the SHORT side for Swing Trading opportunities.

When we have a strong move (like the DOWN move on Friday) followed by a LOW VOLUME "inside day" it is only an indication that price is "stalling".

DOW JONES SWING TRADING INSIDE BAR

When price "stalls" we simply wait for the market to tell us what it will do next.

Then on Wednesday the market spoke LOUD and CLEAR and confirmed that the dominant direction was to the DOWN side by gapping down and selling off on INCREASING VOLUME.

DOW JONES - Inside Bar Continuation Pattern

Going into Wednesday there were several stocks and ETF's that had nice SHORT Swing Trading setups.

Or for those of you who don't feel comfortable SHORTING yet we recommend you focus on the Inverse ETF's.

DXD, SKF, FAZ, and DUG (just to name a few) all had nice LONG setups since they are Inverse ETF's.

If you were SHORT (or LONG the Inverse ETF's) going into Thursday everything was good to go until the excitement started in the afternoon.

Then things got a little tricky.

If you use intraday data in your swing trading the extreme volatility Thursday afternoon gave you a chance to lock in some nice profits.

If you are able to only use end of day data then the situation was obviously a little different for you.

We use intraday data so we did a complete post on how we handled yesterday's extreme volatility HERE.

We exited most of our positions yesterday as our trailing stops were hit when the market rebounded after the massive sell off.

If you werent prepared or didnt have a plan then you probably gave back  some profits.

We had no problem being almost flat even if the market would have continued significantly lower today. (the DOW was down today but still higher than the LOW of yesterday).

We followed our trading plan and exited our positions when our rules told us to.

Today (Friday) was simply a day for us to watch the market to see how things would finish for the week.

We aren't looking to chase this market down at this point.

We will sit on the sidelines and patiently wait for our next LOW RISK/HIGH REWARD trade setups to present themselves.

A few sector ETF's we will keep a close eye on as we move forward are the SILVER (SLV), GOLD (GLD) and the GOLD MINERS (GDX) ETF's.

After such a crazy week in the market don't get over anxious and start trading just to trade.

It can be tough when the market is moving the way it did this week.

It creates "excitement" and sometimes you may feel like you are "missing the boat".

BE PATIENT!

There will be plenty of opportunity in the very near future for you to get back into the market no matter which way it goes from here.

Until next week…

BE PATIENT, PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL and GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As a Swing Trader, how did you handle today’s historic sell off?

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

How did you handle the historic sell off in the market today?

Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 1,000 points before rallying back by the end of the day to finish down a mere 347.80 points.

Dow Jones Sell Off May 6, 2010

News is coming out now about a "trading mistake" made by a "large trading firm" being the culprit for the sell off.

More importantly though is how you, as a swing trader, handled today's extreme volatility.

If you were LONG any positions did you follow your trading plan and EXIT when price hit your STOP (Initial or trailing) level?

If you were SHORT did you follow your plan and COVER when price hit your profit target?

Did you see the sell off and just "hold on" and hope for the best?

Or did you hang on for the entire down move only to see some quick profits evaporate because everything happened so fast?

And on top of that, since you held most or all of your position, you are worried about what the market will do tomorrow since this sell off may have been an "error".

If the last 3 sentences describe how you handled today's market and your current  situation then I would venture to say that you probably don't have a trading plan in place.

And if you do have a "plan" then you either did not follow your rules OR your trading plan needs updating and/or more specific rules.

Now if you have a longer term outlook than the average Swing Trader (2-5 days) then this may NOT apply to you.

On the other hand if you are a short term trader than today's continuation move down gave you ample opportunity to take your profits and even trail the rest (if your strategy calls for scaling out of a position).

Let me give you an example using a trade we initiated last week.

After one successful trade early in the week we alerted our newsletter subscribers last Friday of another LONG trade setup in the Inverse Financial ETF (FAZ).

We have been watching this sector closely since the negative news about Goldman Sachs (GS) came out.

After entering into the trade at $12.01 we set our initial STOP LOSS level at $11.23 which is just over 1 ATR from our entry.

FAZ - Swing Trading ETF

Our initial PROFIT TARGET was set to $13.57, 2 ATR's, above our entry price.

As of this morning we were still in our trade so lets describe how the day played out.

Just before noon today FAZ hit our profit target at $13.57.

FAZ - Swing Trading ETF

For this specific strategy our plan was to sell half of our position at the PROFIT TARGET and use a trailing stop, set to 1 ATR below the current price, for the remainder of our shares.

We followed our plan and exited half of our position at $13.57 and moved our STOP up to $12.79 (13.57 minus .78 which is 1 ATR).

FAZ - Inverse ETF

After consolidating for over an hour FAZ started to take off at started to make new highs around 1:45pm.

As FAZ continued to rally all the way up to $15.97 we held tight and followed our plan by moving our trailing stop UP as price increased.

FAZ - Swing Trading ETF

We trailed our stop by 1 ATR all the way up and ultimately set our final stop at $15.19 (15.97 – .78).

When the market started to bounce and FAZ turned south it happened FAST.

Here is a look at the 1 minute chart so you can see the move.

FAZ - Swing Trading ETF

FAZ fell almost $1.50 in ONE MINUTE!

FAZ eventually came all the way back down to $13.93, more than $2 off the days high!

That is a lot of profit to give back.

Had we not quickly implemented the plan we had in place we would have given back a large portion of our profits very quickly.

If you are serious about trading (and your money) create a detailed trading plan that specifically lays out what you will do in each and every situation the market throws at you.

Having a set of rules in place (and following them) not only leads to less stressful trading but can also help you hold onto some of your hard earned profits!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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