Posts Tagged ‘DIA’

Swing Trading BLOG – Week in Review – July 15, 2011

Sunday, July 17th, 2011

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

$DIA - Swing Trading ETF

"There is no doubt that a retrace in the market will happen…it is just a matter of when."

That was a line from last weeks BLOG post.

Well that "when" was this week!

Tuesday the market GAPPED DOWN (again) and continued to show weakness for the entire week.

The major indices are now hovering around their 50 day SMA's are trying to figure out where to go from here.

The strong sectors we mentioned last week (Real Estate, Technology, Retail) have all pulled back after their recent run up.

The Semiconductors and the Financial sector continue to UNDER perform the market.

The Broker/Dealer ETF ($IAI) actually traded down to NEW LOWS for the year this week.

$IAI - Swing Trading ETF

Several stocks started to show signs of life by weeks end so they are worth a watch as we begin trading next week.

The Energy and Oil Service stocks are showing some good trading patterns.

$APC, $COG, $SLB, $HAL and a few on the smaller names are on our list.

We also have our eye on the casino stocks $WYNN, $LVS, $MGM, etc.

Of course we still have the Retail stocks and our "list to watch" from our last BLOG post on this weeks Watch List as well.

$ERTS - Swing Trading Watch

After the nice pull back we saw in the market this week we should see some interesting price action next week!

Oh and don't forget to have some SHORT candidates on your list as well…just in case.

That way you can act on whatever the market decides to do from here (heard that before?).

Until next week….Good trading to YOU!

Swing Trading BLOG – Week in Review – July 1, 2011

Monday, July 4th, 2011

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

$DIA - Swing Trading ETF

WOW!

What a bounce we saw in the market this week!

After putting in a short term "double bottom" pattern last week traders watched as the market RIPPED up for 5 consecutive days this week!

After talking and emailing several traders this weekend it seems that a lot of people were caught off guard.

I sat with one trader after the market close on Friday and he sat there trying to convince me that the market SHOULD not have bounced so hard.

He also told me about how his positions (mostly shorts) SHOULD have acted during a bounce.

After finally revealing that he was still SHORT (after most of his positions were now very much against him) it is apparent that he himself SHOULD have done a few things.

The most important thing to get out of this little story is have a sound set of trading rules in place and stick to them no matter what.

What you or I (or anyone else) think the market SHOULD do DOESN'T MATTER and that way of thinking has absolutely has no place in trading.

As traders we look for opportunities to profit from what we think the market MAY do.

We also know that once we enter into a trade it MAY NOT do what we had hoped for.

We as traders expect to be wrong often.

They key to success is understanding this and PROTECTING YOUR CAPITAL at all costs when you are wrong!

If you read our Swing Trading BLOG 9and we hope you do) you will tell our traders to "prepare for whatever the market decides to do and act accordingly".

That means be prepared and have a plan for action whether the market does what you expect or not.

Being stubborn and trying to out think the market is a sure way to trading disaster…trust me!

Ok so now that the lecture is over lets take a look at the charts!

Almost everything on the board RIPPED right along with the market this week.

The most important lesson to gain from looking at the charts is to learn how to spot when the SHORT TERM trend changes.

$DIA

Let's take a look at the chart of the "Diamonds" above.

Last Thursday (June 23rd) we saw a big gap down in the AND reversal in the market.

The SELL OFF that day took the market down to an area that was near the low we saw on June 15th.

Once the market traded down to that level the market "reversed" and closed very near the high of the day.

Friday (June 25th) the market didn't do much as it traded sideways on low volume.

It is at this point that we as traders look for signs or clues to see what the market has in store next.

Monday we watched as the market traded higher (albeit or lower volume) which is not a good sign for the SHORTS.

If after seeing a strong reversal followed by a sideways trading day and UP day in the market doesn't give you a very loud hint that a retrace is upon you then I am not sure what will!

Tuesday the market GAPS UP (another clue) and trades in an nice orderly up trend all day (yet another clue).

Once you notice all the clues or hints you need to take action based on your observation.

For some of you that action meant to cover your SHORTS at a loss.

For others it meant to cover and GET LONG.

Our trading plan may not match you trading plan.

Our plan has us stopping out of our SHORTS and entering into some LONG positions in STRONG STOCKS.

In last weeks BLOG POST we mentioned some of the STRONG STOCKS that we were watching this week.

Take a look at the charts of the stocks we mentioned in that post and see how they did.

We have gone from VERY WEAK to VERY STRONG in the market in one week flat!

Expect some increased volatility ahead as traders try to get a handle on where we go from here.

As always be prepared for ANYTHING!!!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading BLOG – Week in Review – June 3, 2011

Sunday, June 5th, 2011

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

DIA - Swing Trading ETF

The DOWN move continues!

After one day of trading above its 50 day SMA the DJIA sold off for the rest of the holiday shorted week.

The push lower takes the markets to a new six week low.

Most (not all) sectors followed suit as the sellers came out in force.

The Financials ($XLF) and the Homebuilders ($XHB) were hit hard.

XLF - Swing Trading ETF

Technology ($XLK) and more specifically the Semiconductors ($SMH) also had a rough week.

SMH - Swing Trading ETF

Retail ($RTH) was holding up but finally gave way to the selling this week as well.

RTH - Swing Trading ETF

The Energy ($XLE) and Oil ($OIH) ETF's actually held up rather well this week.

OIH - Swing Trading ETF

Who knows if this SHORT TERM relative will hold up but it is something to watch as we move forward from here.

The Agriculture ETF's ($DBA $MOO) also are showing some signs of strength.

DBA - Swing Trading ETF

The overall market is pretty near a SHORT TERM oversold level so keep that in mind as we go into next week.

Don't chase the market down and wait for your setups to develop.

Be prepared for whatever the market does from here and as always…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading BLOG – Week in Review – May 27, 2011

Monday, May 30th, 2011

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

DIA - Swing Trading ETF

The BIG GAP DOWN we saw on Monday extended the month long correction we have seen in the overall market.

The market is now hoovering near it's 50 day SMA as we saw a bit of a rebound by weeks end.

As we look over our sector ETF LIST it is a mixed bag.

The Retail ETF ($RTH) has pulled back off of it recent high and is still trading above its 50 day SMA.

$RTH - Swing Trading ETF

The Real Estate ETF ($IYR) is equally as strong in the short term.

$IYR - Swing Trading ETF

The oversold  Steel, Energy, and Oil ETF's put in a retrace back towards their 50 day SMA's.

The Gold ETF ($GLD) is starting to shine again so make sure this sector is on your list.

$GLD - Swing Trading ETF

So now that we are back trading near the 50 day SMA where does the market go from here?

Do we continue the short term DOWN TREND?

Do we chop around a bit while the buyers and sellers fight it out?

No one knows for sure but for now we continue to trade both sides on the market.

One stock that we are watching to see if it transitions from weak to strong?

Take a look at $CREE…

$CREE - Swing Trading

Keep both strong stocks ($ELN, $CTXS, $INFA, $ANF, etc) and weak ones ($SOHU, $ADSK, $HOG, $DOW) on your list and be prepared for whichever way the market goes from here.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

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