Archive for November, 2010

Swing Trading Week in Review – November 26, 2010

Sunday, November 28th, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

As the holiday shortened week came to end the markets appear to be a bit indecisive about which way they want to go from here.

The market was a bit choppy this week with a big GAP DOWN on Tuesday and then a big GAP UP on Wednesday.

The market of course was closed on Thursday but hen Friday morning rolled around traders we confronted with yet another GAP DOWN.

SPY - ETF Swing Trading

This "choppy" price action is a bit to be expected during a holiday week so it should be interesting to see what happens when we open for trading on Monday.

Last week we told you that our belief is that we are at a pivotal point in the market and this week has done nothing to change our mind.

All three major indices are still trading above their 50 day SMA's and some of the individual sectors are acting very well.

This is a good sign for the "Bulls".

On the flip side though is the fact that we are continuing to see more SHORT trade setups then we have in awhile.

It feels like the "Bears" are sitting on the sidelines and licking their chops waiting for the time to pounce.

Like we said last week how the market follows through from here will be the key.

Make sure you have a list of possible SHORTS and LONGS for next week.

Be prepared for whatever the market does from here and simply take action when it does.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – November 19, 2010

Sunday, November 21st, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

The sell off continued to start out the week on a negative note.

By Thursday however we saw the buyers step back in and give the markets a lift to close out the week.

This recent sell off has taken the major indices back near their 50 period SMA's on INCREASING VOLUME which is a bit concerning.

SPY- Swing Trading

The "inside day" we saw in the markets on Wednesday was followed by less than impressive volume as the market rose Thursday and Friday.

It looks like we are at another pivotal level in the market and as always follow through (and how it does) is the key.

This low volume "bounce" could be quickly followed by MORE BUYING and an increase in volume.

This would be a great short term sign that the bulls are still in charge.

If however this low volume "bounce" is followed by AGGRESSIVE SELLING then the market could be in a for a significant move lower.

Some of the sector ETF's preformed quite well to close out the week while others are showing signs of tremendous weakness.

The Oil Services (OIH) and Energy ETF's (XLE) had nice moves to the upside.

OIH- Swing Trading ETF XLE

The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) remains strong after it's recent BREAKOUT and we will continue to look for signs of follow through in this sector.

SMH

Silver (SLV) also made it's next UP SWING after a decent pull back from it's most recent high.

SLV - Silver ETF

The two sector's we focused on in last weeks BLOG POST…The Financial's (IYF, XLF) and the Homebuilders (XHB)…have now pulled back to a  level that is BELOW their recent breakout points.

IYF XHB

Both sector's are hovering around their 50 DAY SMA's and are still in a "zone" that COULD hold as support but this type of deep pullback after a HIGH VOLUME breakout is NOT a great sign.

Even though the market is showing a bit of weakness recently there were still plenty of opportunities to take some LONG trades this week.

Several stocks on our Watch List set up for some nice trades this week.

Stocks on this list were $LULU, $COG, $MRVL, $WLK, $X, $BRCM, $TIF, $MEE and $HAL (to name a few).

LULU

Even though the market is still technically in a very BULLISH phase it is at, what we believe, at very pivotal level.

For the first time in several weeks we are actually seeing a number of  SHORT trade setups.

During this recent sell off in the market several stocks have actually started to show signs of weakness.

$ERTS, $LLY, $G, $K, and $MED are a few on our list that are relatively weak.

The Real Estate sector (and the stocks within) have all been hit hard during this recent sell off.

$SPG, $DRE, $KIM and $O have sold off hard recently and a "bounce" could happen in the very near future but the price action and volume we have seen during this sell off has us looking to the SHORT side in this sector.

Next week should give us a good indication of where the market is headed from here.

You may have heard this before but…BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING!

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – November 12, 2010

Sunday, November 14th, 2010

Swing Trading BLOG – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP

After breaking out to NEW HIGHS for the year last week the market put in a nice, orderly pullback this week.

We have seen a nice rally over the last 2 months but it looks the BEARS have had enough.

When you look at the charts for the DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ everything still looks great.

DIA - Swing Trading SPY QQQQ

A pullback after such a nice run up in the market is to be expected.

When you focus on the charts of the sector ETF's you start to see a few things to take note of.

Once the market traded to NEW HIGHS last week we saw the SELLERS step in and hammer some of the sectors.

The Real Estate sector ETF's broke out last week but a big sell off quickly followed and brought them right back to their 50 day SMA's.

IYR - Swing Trading

The recent "Rock Star" Agriculture ETF's ($DBA $MOO) saw a similar outcome after last weeks break out.

We have seen this "Breakout/Sell Off" combo a few times this year and it can be quite frustrating for Swing Traders.

DBA

We saw the same pattern in a few of the strong stocks on our Watch List.

$EC has been a very strong stock as of late and like the market broke out the NEW HIGHS last week.

This week $EC took a beating as sellers drove the stock straight down for 4 days in a row.

EC

The individual names in the Agriculture sector are looking a little weak.

$ADM $AGU never made it to NEW HIGHS last week and sold off this week as well.

$POT traded lower and is trading near the bottom of its multi-month lateral channel.

$POT has a BIG GAP below and a break down from this level could take this stock significantly lower.

POT

$MOS is having a hard time breaking out of the $70-$75 price level.

Now like we said earlier overall the market is still looking good and remains very strong.

This recent pullback is a good thing and some of the other stocks an sector ETF's on our Watch List are, as of now, setting up nicely.

The Retail, Energy, and Semiconductors ETF's still look strong.

Two sectors we will be focusing on will be the Financials and the Homebuilders.

In last weeks BLOG POST we posted about their breakout through some important overhead resistance levels.

Both sectors are now pulling back to these same important levels.

IYF IYF XHB XHB

Once resistance is broken often times it becomes a new "support" level.

We will now need to see price and volume give us "confirmation" that this level will hold as new support and if it does we can act accordingly.

The market has pulled back this week but there could be more to come.

Use this time to watch how the stocks and ETF's on your Watch List react to the sell off.

Are they holding up nicely by pulling back on decreasing volume?

Or are they selling off MORE than the overall market and breaking down through key levels on increased volume?

Stick to your trading plan (you have one right?) and be prepared for whatever the market has in store for us in the days to come.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

Swing Trading Week in Review – November 5, 2010

Sunday, November 7th, 2010

Swing Trading Blog – Swing Trading BOOT CAMP


Finally!!!

Swing Traders got the breakout they have been waiting for as the market traded to NEW HIGHS for the year this week.

As you would expect most of the sectors followed suit by rallying higher this week as well.

DIA

The sector ETF's making NEW HIGHS for the year this week were Agriculture ($DBA $MOO), Energy ($XLE), Real Estate ($IYR), Semiconductors ($SMH), Airlines ($FAA) and Technology ($XLK).

SIlver ($SLV) and Gold ($GLD) also rallied to NEW HIGHS as did the Gold Miners ($GDX).

Another interesting thing to take notice of is that there is finally some strength coming into the weakest sectors.

The Financials ($XLF $IYF) and the Hombuilders ($XHB) ETF's broke through key overhead resistance levels this week.

IYF XHB

The Broker/Dealer ETF ($IAI) also broke through the resistance in the $25-$27 area.

IAI

All of these ETF's broke through these prior resistance levels on BIG volume!

Follow through is the key but the amount of volume we saw at the end of last week in a hopefully a sign of good things to come.

In last weeks BLOG POST we told you that there were a TON of stocks pulling back nicely off of their most recent highs.

Hopefully you were able to get into some of these trades this week.

There were loads of what we call "text book" swing trades to take this week.

A few stocks with favorable risk/reward setups were $MEE, $EC, $ANN, $GS, $BBY, $SKS and $APC to name a few.

GS

$SPG ripped and even $F was a rock star this week!

F

There were some stocks that actually rolled over this week but with the market breaking out to new highs we have no need to focus on the SHORT side.

Although we will continue to watch BOTH sides of the market to determine overall strength and weakness just remember that CONTEXT is the KEY that allows you to take action.

CONTEXT tells us the market is way too strong to try to fight it but that being said it is also warning us NOT to chase it up at this point!

If for some reason you missed last weeks action BE PATIENT and wait for your trades to set up for you.

Sometimes it is hard to sit and wait when the market is moving up the way it is but often times that is the smartest thing to do.

Until next week…Good Trading to YOU!

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