Archive for June, 2010

Intraday Swing Trading

Saturday, June 12th, 2010

Can you "swing" trade intraday?

This seems to be a question that comes up a lot.

"Swing Trading" is typically defined as…a method or strategy used to profit from short term (1-4 day) price moves in the market.

Although the standard definition defines the typical length of time in a trade (1-4 days) another definition for "Swing Trading" is used to describe a method or strategy used to profit from "price swings" in the market.

This definition can be used for a trading strategy or method regardless of the time frame.

A "price swing" is used to describe the ebb and flow of price action.

As price moves from one point to the next it typically does so in back and forth wave like motions.

When price moves from a low point on the chart to a higher point this is typically identified as an "up swing".

The opposite is true for a "down swing" in price.

In the chart below we have identified the UP price swings with a BLUE arrow and the DOWN price swing with an ORANGE arrow.

Price Action - Price Swings

The alternating "swing" extremes are further identified as "swing highs" and "swing lows" once they begin to retrace from their highest or lowest point.

Here is the same chart with the "swing" highs (black horizontal lines) and "swing" lows (blue horizontal lines) in place.

Swing Highs and Lows - Swing Trading Price Action

So now that we have the terminology and definitions out of the way lets get back to the original question.

Using the second definition of a "Swing Trader" you can surely see how a day trader can trade the "price swings" in the market.

In fact in the two charts above you probably cant even tell if they are DAILY charts or INTRADAY charts since the price and time data has been removed.

Our main strategy for overnight Swing Trading is based on locating strong or weak stocks (and sectors) in relation to the market and trading these stocks (and ETF's) based on the context of the overall market conditions.

When we trade the "price swings" intraday we use the exact same strategy!

If the market is strong we are scanning the market looking for the strongest stocks and ETF's.

Once we locate thees strong stocks we then use technical analysis (price action, volume and trend lines) to locate and hopefully profit from the intraday "price swings".

We want to be in sync with the market so if the market has run up (UP swing), retraced (DOWN swing), we are looking for LOW RISK trade setups in the strongest stocks and ETF's.

That way if the market decides to make another UP swing we can enter into and hopefully profit from this next price swing in the market.

On the intraday (5 minute) chart below of AKAM you can see the first UP swing as price rallies from the open all the way up to just under $43.50.

AKAM then heads lower (retraces) creating a DOWN swing (orange arrow).

Overall the market was strong and the strength in AKAM from the open was obvious.

We are then anticipating another UP swing in AKAM if and when the market starts to show some signs of also moving up.

 

Intraday Swing Trading

We were able to enter into this intraday swing trade in AKAM just over $43 as the new "swing low" was put in place and the next UP swing in price began.

Although we are never sure how long the next "price swing" will last in this example AKAM ran up to just over $44 ( a one dollar move) before starting its next DOWN swing.

 

This is just one example of how you can "swing trade" intraday.

Although they may need some tweaking the potential strategies and ideas that you have for overnight swing trading can surely be utilized on an intraday basis.

Swing Trading Week in Review – June 11, 2010

Friday, June 11th, 2010

Well after a mild continuation sell off that started last week the markets finally put in a decent move to the upside to finish positive for the week.

Monday we watched the market continue lower but we noticed the this move was not accompanied by strong volume.

We were focused on the 9835.09 level in the Dow as a possible level of support.

9835.09 is the low of the reversal day that happened on February 5th and was essentially the starting point for the 1400 point that followed.

The chart below is the WEEKLY chart of the DJIA to show you the level we were looking at.

Dow Jones Weekly Swing Chart

And here is the daily chart of the DJIA which shows you an additional "touch" of this area back on the 25th of May.

DJIA Daily Swing Trading Chart

Watching the price and volume action around this level would give us a "clue" to what the market may do next.

Tuesday the market did head lower to break through the 9835.09 level once again but by the end of the trading session you could almost feel the tide turning.

We were able to cover most of our SHORT positions (DOW, KLAC, UPS) into this down move on Tuesday as price reached our initial profit targets.

We tightened up our stops and were stopped out of the remainder of our positions on Wednesday morning as the market rallied to new highs around 11am.

Tuesday and Wednesday's price action told us that a "bounce" or "retrace" had begun (at least for the short term) so it looked like the 9835.09 would once again hold as support.

Anticipating the possibility of a "bounce" we also had several stocks on our watch list that were showing signs of relative strength during the recent down move.

Our strategy was to buy a few of these strong stocks if price firmed up around the 9835.09 level and began to show signs of moving up.

As the morning progressed Wednesday we did enter into a few new LONG swing trades.

One of the "strong" stocks we have been watching is NTAP.

After a nice run up to NEW HIGHS you can see how NTAP put in a pretty text book retrace from the HIGH of last Thursday to the LOW of Tuesday's trading.

NTAP - Long Swing Trade Example

This pullback from NEW HIGHS was happening as the market was headed lower from a LOWER HIGH into a possible support area…a good sign of strength.

Tuesday's price action in NTAP gave us the "heads up" for it's next possible leg up.

Wednesday, when the market gapped up, we payed close attention to NTAP and once we saw the relative strength in the overall market and NTAP we were able to enter into a LONG position at just over $38.

The market rolled over hard into the close Wednesday and NTAP actually closed well below our entry price after being UP almost $1 in this position.

This is more often than not a sign that our trade will not work out but instead of jumping the gun we just followed of rules like every other trade we put on.

Our STOP for this trade was set at 1 ATR or $1.70 in this case.

The late day reversal on Wednesday brought NTAP within .09 of stopping us out of this trade as the market closed.

From a HIGH of nearly $39 NTAP traded all the way down to a LOW of $37.39 by the close.

Since $39 minus $1.70 is $37.30 (our trailing ATR stop level) that shows you just how close we were to being stopped out.

Thursday the market gapped up a bit a NTAP had an "inside day" on LOWER VOLUME.

No sign for panic but not a great sign for us as the market moved higher.

NTAP - Swing Trading Example

Friday we got the follow through in NTAP that we were looking for…a nice move UP on INCREASED VOLUME.

As NTAP closed today at just under $40 we trailed our stop up accordingly and, absent any HUGE gap down, have locked in at least a small profit on this trade.

Follow your trading plan and don't try to outguess the market!

Until next week…GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

 

 

 

Swing Trading Week in Review – June 4, 2010

Friday, June 4th, 2010

And here we go again!

The Dow and S&P finished down 2% for the week while the Nasdaq held up a little better by losing ONLY 1.7%.

DIA Swing Trading ETF

Sounds pretty plain and simple but the trading during the week was a little bumpy.

The holiday week started off with yet another GAP DOWN in the market.

We know that the buyers have been defending the area just above 10,000 in the Dow as this GAP DOWN brought us right into this area.

The market rallied right from the open but late day selling came into the market and pushed the market down to close below its open…a true reversal day.

Wednesday the buyers stepped back into the market at near the same levels (just above 10,000) pushing the market higher right into the close.

Thursday the market GAPPED UP a bit but quickly fizzled out and closed near its mid point of the day.

Then Friday comes and BAM!…down we go again.

Sellers aggressively took the market lower with the Dow finishing down over 300 points for the day!

This was an important week in our opinion.

Not because of any significant financial related news or event.

We think it was important because of the lesson you could learn from this weeks trading action.

If you are a short term trader then the valuable lesson to be learned from this week's price action is to have "re-entry" plan in place.

Let's rewind a bit and look at the charts to see what we mean,

After last Friday's lackluster performance it appeared that Tuesday was setting up for the next leg lower in this down trend.

DIA - Dow 30 ETF

As a matter of fact there were a TON of SHORT Swing Trading setups on our "watch list".

We notified our newsletter subscribers of several SHORT stock setups and several possible LONG Inverse ETF setups for Tuesday morning.

The market GAPPED DOWN on Tuesday and the late day sell off actually triggered several of our SHORT swing trades near the close.

We did notice however that by the close the volume levels for this "reversal day" were low…not exactly what you want to see when the market reverses.

Trading price action is our primary focus but this volume "clue" was a caution flag for us.

On Wednesday the market rallied right from the open and closed near its high for the day…another bad sign for our SHORT positions.

Our best trades usually work right from the start and with the market moving up so strongly we were now "taking some pain" in our positions.

Another thing we noticed is that in some of our positions the volume INCREASED as price rallied on Wednesday.

We know from understanding the PVT Method that price moving UP as volume INCREASES is classic UP trending price action.

Look at the chart of KLAC below.

You can see where we entered out SHORT position (RED ARROW) and then look at Wednesday and Thursday's price and volume action.

KLAC - Swing Trading Stop Out

KLAC trades higher on INCREASING VOLUME (blue arrows) and closes above the recent swing high and our STOP LOSS point (black line).

Friday KLAC heads lower on INCREASING VOLUME confirming the "two stage" retrace.

Some of our other SHORT positions went up a bit with the market on Wednesday but on LOWER VOLUME (a clue of things to come?).

Let's look at one of our "good" SHORT positions.

Notice on the chart of DOW Chemical (DOW) below how unlike KLAC price actually moves sideways both Wednesday and Thursday.

DOW - SHORT swing Trade

This sideways price action is accompanied by LOWER, DECREASING VOLUME a good sign for our SHORT position.

DOW follows through to the down side nicely on INCREASING VOLUME as the market sells off on Friday.

As you can see from the charts above things played out pretty much as anticipated.

We got stopped out of some of our SHORTS that continued to rally on increased volume on Thursday.

Can you guess by now which positions stopped us out?

Our other positions that went up a bit with the market on LOWER volume (like Dow Chemical) ended up closing under their recent swing highs so we were able to hold onto to these.

We thought that Thursday's move in some of these stocks was possibly a "two stage" retrace so we were ready by Friday to re-enter our SHORT positions if price action called for it.

Friday the market GAPPED DOWN again and after about an hour of sideways trading rolled over and finished the day DOWN over 300 points on INCREASING VOLUME!

Our "good" short positions followed through nicely and, as planned, we re-entered into some of our positions that stopped us out just the day before.

By using both price action and volume we avoided getting "shaken out" of some of our SHORT positions.

Getting STOPPED OUT for a loss or near break even is not fun but by following our "re-entry" rules we were able to get back on the right side of the market and hopefully profit from our analysis.

Until next week….GOOD TRADING TO YOU!

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